MoneyOnComputer

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

20.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar was traded at a seven-week high against the basket of major currencies. The dollar grew when the April Fed meeting minutes showed that the interest rates could rise as early as the next month. The US published weekly initial jobless claims report (278k vs. expectations 275k). William Dudley (the Fed representative) gave his speech by the end of the trading day. According to Dudley if the economy corresponds to the forecast the regulator shall hike the rate in June or July.

The Central Bank of the European Union published its last meeting minutes. According to the minutes the Central Bank may use any instruments to rise the inflation, as long as they are effective.

The pound continued to strengthen against the dollar when the volume of the UK retail sales rose in April. The volume grew despite a sharp fall of clothing sales, which could be due to off-season weather.

The US dollar rose to a three-week high against the yen. The pair USD / JPY grew against the correction on the Japanese equity markets and after the FOMC minutes publication. Only by the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen decreased.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

In the Bonds market the 10-year German government bonds yield decreased which reduced the attractiveness of the European assets. The ECB published its protocols. The published ECB minutes could not support the euro.

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1040. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.1150 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.1040 will be opened.



Pound

General overview

The volume of Retail Sales in the UK rose last month more than expected. (1,3% vs. expectations 0,5%) Analysts expected the index to rise by 0,5% last month.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4760.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.4670 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4760 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen

General overview

Machinery Orders rose more than expected (5,5% vs. previous -9,2%). The 2-year Treasury bonds yield reached the highest level since March.

The price is finding the first support at 109.80, the next one is at 109.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 110.60, the next one is at 111.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 110.60, 111.40.



Franc

General overview

The Swiss investors' attention was directed to the United States statistics amid an empty macroeconomic calendar. The USA published Initial Jobless Claims report (278k vs. expectations 275k). The USA published Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (-1.8 vs. forecast 3.5).

The price is finding the first support at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9750. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9940, the next one is at 1.0020.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9940. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0020.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

23.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar is trading at seven-week highs against other majors. The expectations regarding the possible interest rate hike in the US significantly supported the US currency. Positive economic statistics from the US could lead to the monetary policy tightening in the upcoming months.

The ECB representatives made several important statements in the last weeks about the Central Bank policy in the upcoming months. According to Vitor Constancio (Vice-President of ECB) the Bank continues to stimulate the economy in spite of the growth of the inflation in the euro area. The Bank expects the inflation to reach the level of 2% in 2016.

The pound became optimistic when the last polls showed that the majority of people would vote to remain in the EU. The referendum is scheduled for June 23.

The dollar reached a three-week peak in the pair USD/JPY. The weakness of the US Bonds market supported the Japanese currency as the safe asset.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Producer price index – PPI in Germany rose less than expected last month.( 0.1% m/m vs. previous 0.0%).

The first support lies at 1.1200 and then at 1.1130. The first resistance stands at 1.1250, the next one is at 1.1300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.1200 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.1070 will be opened.



Pound

General overview

Investors positively accepted the new survey data regarding Brexit (from ComRes/ITV ). According to the poll: 52% of UK people would vote against Brexit which supported the pound. The UK published Industrial Trends Survey - Orders (-8 vs. forecast -13).
The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4670.

We have a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and the Chinkou Span lines. The Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement, the Tenkan-sen line is directed downwards.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.4670 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4760 will be opened after this breakthrough. If the GBP/USD fixates below 1.4400 it shall decrease to 1.4240.



Yen

General overview

American and Japanese 10 year government bonds yield differential expanded which increased the attractiveness of the US assets. On the other hand the pressure in the Bonds market supported the yen as a funding currency.

The price is finding the first support at 109.80, the next one is at 109.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 110.60, the next one is at 111.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 110.60, 111.40. The decrease targets are 109.80 and 109.00



Franc

General overview

Switzerland published retail sales for April (1.1% vs. previous -3.1%).

The price is finding the first support at 0.9900, the next one is at 0.9850. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9950.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9950. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0000.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

24.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar strengthened when the latest Fed meeting showed that the interest rate may be raised as early as June. The United States did not publish any important report and all investors' attention was directed to Bullard and Williams’ speeches (the FOMC members). According to Bullard the regulator has more reasons to change the rates than to keep the soft policy. According to Williams the financial stability speaks in favor of a rate hike.

The euro fell to a session low when Markit PMI Composite slowed down in May (52.9 vs. expectations 53.2). The index fell despite the steady growth in Germany and France, as other regions showed a decline.

The UK did not publish important news on Monday.

The dollar fell against the yen on Monday amid Tokyo stock market falling. The Japanese trade surplus in April was significantly above our expectations. Manufacturing PMI in Japan declined in May (47.6 vs. previous 48.2). The index declined at the fastest pace in the last three years due to new orders decrease. The data came after the G7 meeting on Saturday, where the US again warned Tokyo about the negative consequences of intervening to weaken the yen.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Manufacturing PMI in Germany rose to a five-month high in May (52.4 vs. previous 51.8, expectations 52.0). Services PMI in Germany rose to a three-month high (55.2 vs. expectations 54.6).

The first support lies at 1.1200 and then at 1.1130. The first resistance stands at 1.1250, the next one is at 1.1300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1200 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.1130.



Pound

General overview

On Monday, Britain did not publish important fundamental reports. According to Bonds market the British currency grew strongly: government bonds yield differential (the US and UK) expanded to the highest level in the last month and a half.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4670.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.4400 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4320 will be opened.



Yen

General overview

Japan published Trade Balance for April (823.5 B vs. expectations 492.8B). Japan has been showing a positive trade balance for the third month in a row. The 10-year government bonds (the United States and Japan) expanded close to the mark of 200 bp, which increased the attractiveness of the US assets.

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 109.80 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 110.60 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

25.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

Yesterday the dollar rose to the two-month high against other majors, due to the expectations of the rate hike by the Fed in June. The possible rate hike continued to be a driver for the US currency.

The euro continued to decline when Germany published weak economic sentiment (6.4 vs. previous 11.2). The sentiment worsened amid concerns about the global economy prospects.

The pound strengthened against the dollar when a new poll showed that 55% of Britons supported staying in the EU vs. 42% leaving the EU.

The yen weakened after Taro Aso's statement (Japanese Finance Minister). According to Taro they need to stimulate the economy further if they want to raise the sales tax in April 2017.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The Bonds market showed a growing optimism: the 10-years German government bonds yield grew which increased the attractiveness of the European assets. Economic Sentiment in May (the ZEW Institute) was the focus of our attention. The index sharply fell which weakened the euro (6.4 vs. expectations 12.0).

The first support lies at 1.1130 and then at 1.1070. The first resistance stands at 1.1200, the next one is at 1.1250.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The strong support level of 1.1200 break was followed by the pair decrease. If it breaks 1.1130 down it will open the way to the level of 1.1070.



Pound

General overview

The parliamentary hearings on inflation in the UK were the main event in the country. The 10-year government bonds yield in the UK rose by 5 basis points since the last meeting of the Bank. However, the referendum on membership in EU bears some risk for the country economy.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4760.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates above the resistance 1.4670, it may continue the upward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4760.



Yen

General overview

The USA published New Home Sales Change for April (16,6% vs. previous -1,3%).

The price is finding the first support at 109.80, the next one is at 109.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 110.60, the next one is at 111.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is going upwards. The bulls’ targets are the levels of 110.60 and 111.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

26.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

On Wednesday the dollar remained at two-month high against other major currencies. Expectations that the US might raise the base rate in June provided a significant support to the dollar.

Greece reached an agreement with its creditors and unlocked a new tranche in the amount of €10 billion. The agreement eased the concerns over a possible new debt crisis in the Eurozone.

Although no important news were published in the country, the pound kept growing. The only topic that drives the pound is the upcoming referendum. According to the latest poll the number of Britons who prefer to remain in the EU grew. The poll results have been supporting the pound for the second day in a roll.

The dollar showed a growth against the yen. Japanese macroeconomic calendar was empty. The pair was under the influence of technical factors. According to Kuroda (Governor of the Bank of Japan) the country economy continued to recover moderately amid the soft policy of the Central Bank.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The Business Climate in Germany grew in May to its highest level in five months. (107.7 vs. expectations 106.8). The published data showed that the largest economy in the Eurozone is getting better.

The first support lies at 1.1130 and then at 1.1070. The first resistance stands at 1.1200, the next one is at 1.1250.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1130 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.1070.



Pound

General overview

The pound is approaching its high of the week due to reduced uncertainty about the outcome of the referendum. According to the latest poll the number of Brexit opponents is 55% vs. 42% who want to exit the EU.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4560. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4760, the next one is at 1.4880.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.4760 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.4880.



Yen

General overview

There is 60% possibility that the FOMC will raise the interest rates on June 15th. The positive statistics from the United States supported the10-years government bonds (US and Japan) which increased the attractiveness of the US assets.

The price is finding the first support at 109.80, the next one is at 109.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 110.60, the next one is at 111.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movementб forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 110.60, 111.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

27.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar strengthened its positions amid positive economic reports. According to the latest Fed comments, the US regulator may raise the rates at its meeting in June. In economic news, the United States published Initial Jobless Claims number (268K vs. forecast 275K).

The Eurozone agreement with Greece supported the euro. Greece reached an agreement with its creditors and shall receive a new tranche of loans (10 billion euro).

The second GDP estimate for the first quarter in the UK confirmed that the British economic recovery slowed down. The economy grew by 0,4% in the first quarter from 0,6% in Q4 2015. The British economy faced problems with a weakened growth in emerging markets, especially in China. The upcoming referendum slowed the growth as well.

The dollar remains near in a range waiting for J. Yellen’s speech. The market expects clues from the regulator regarding the possible rate hike in June. The yen grew and deprived the dollar from its latest gains. The Japanese currency growth forced investors to close positions before any potential risk event.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The 10-year government bonds in Germany declined which reduced the attractiveness of the European assets. The growing "risk appetite" in the world put pressure on the safe assets, such as the single European currency. However the pair euro/dollar strengthened.

The first support lies at 1.1130 and then at 1.1070. The first resistance stands at 1.1200, the next one is at 1.1250.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.1250 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.1300.



Pound

General overview

The revised GDP data for the first quarter was the main event in the UK. The index remained at the same level at 0.4%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4760.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.4560, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4480.



Yen

General overview

The yen stopped to grow on Thursday. Earlier it increased as corporate services price index rose. Corporate Service Price index rose by 0,2% year on year, as expected. The USA published Durable Goods Orders (0,4% vs. expectations 0,3%) and Initial Jobless Claims (268K vs. forecast 275K).

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 109.00, the next one is 108.20.



Franc

General overview

Yesterday investors' attention was directed to the weekly US labor market report – Initial Jobless Claims (268K vs. forecast 275K). Switzerland published Industrial Production (-2,2% vs. previous -7,4%).

The price is finding the first support at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9750. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9940, the next one is at 1.0020.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement, forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9850. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9750.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

30.05.2016


Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Janet Yellen (the Fed Chairman) gave her speech. According to Janet Yellen the regulator might hike the rates in the upcoming months if the USA economy keeps steadily growing. Yellen’s speech supported the dollar.

Current situation

The pair was correcting the whole previous week. Still the level of 1.1200 did not let it further. After a short consolidation near the level of 1.1200 the pair returned to a decrease. The support is at the level of 1.1070, the resistance lies at 1.1130.

MACD is in a negative area. The histogram is above the signal line. The signal is bullish. RSI indicator approached the oversold level of 30.

Trading recommendations

After J.Yellen’s speech the dollar received a support. We forecast a decrease deep further to the levels of 1.1070 and 1.1000. As the pair is oversold we do not exclude a correction up to 1.1200 where there is a pivot point and the EUR/USD may turn down.



Pound

General overview

The 10-year government bonds yield in the UK decreased. The UK published Consumer Confidence index (-1 vs. previous -3).

Current situation

The GBP/USD strengthened last week and grew above the supports 1.4560 and 1.4670. Still the pair failed to remain near its new month high. The pound fell and broke the mark 1.4670. The support is at the level of 1.4560, the resistance is at 1.4670.

MACD is in a positive area. The indicator kept decreasing. The histogram is below the signal line. The signal is bullish. RSI indicator is above 70 and is overbought.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.4560 soon. The next target is the level of 1.4480.



Yen

National Consumer Price Index remained unchanged contrary to expectations. (-0,3% vs. expectations -0.4%).

Current situation

The pair USD/JPY made growth attempts. Still a strong resistance 110.60 did not let the pair to reach new high. The pair was in a range the second part of the week. Still it managed to grow to 110.60 before the trading week end. The resistance is at 109.80, the support is at 110.60.

MACD is on the zero line giving no signals. The histogram is on the level of the signal line. RSI approached the overbought level of 70.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued. The first target is the level 110.60, the next one is 111.40.



Franc

General overview

Employment Level index in Switzerland decreased in the last quarter. According to the Swiss Federal Statistical Office, the index (seasonally corrected) showed 4,880M vs. previous 4,897M.

Current situation

The USD/CHF was in a range 0.9850-0.9940 last week. The pair could grow to 0.9940, but did not break it. The pair corrected downwards to 0.9850 where it turned upwards again. The Janet Yellen’s speech supported the dollar and the pair grew and touched 0.9940. The support comes in at 0.9850, the resistance lies 0.9940.

MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is on the level of the signal line. MACD kept growing. The signal is bullish. RSI approached the overbought level of 70.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 0.9940 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.0020.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

31.05.2016

Euro

General overview

The dollar rose after J.Yellen’s (the Fed Chairman) comments regarding a possible rate hike in June. The market showed a low volatility due to the holidays in the USA.

Current situation

The EUR/USD tried to grow still it could not break the level of 1.1200. The pair decreased and broke the support 1.1130. The EUR/USD set a new two-month low at 1.1097 on Monday and then started a weak upward correction. The support is at 1.1130, the resistance is at 1.1200.

MACD is in a negative area. The histogram is on the level of the signal line. RSI is neutral.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.1130 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.1070 will be opened.



Pound

General overview

Monday trading was low volatile due to holidays in the US and UK markets.

Current situation

The pair GBP/USD continued its correction from the recent high near 1.4760. Yesterday the trading was low volatile due to Spring Bank Holiday in the UK. The price was traded at the opening price level almost the whole day. Only by the end of the day the pair slightly increased. The support is at 1.4560, the resistance is at 1.4670.

MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is below the signal line. The indicator kept decreasing. RSI is neutral.

Trading recommendations


We suppose the pair will go to 1.4560 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.4480.



Yen

The pair continued its recovery. Rumors that Abe (the Prime Minister of Japan ) was likely to postpone the sales tax increase to 2.5 years pressured the yen. The market volatility was reduced amid to the US holiday – Memorial Day.

Current situation

In the absence of majority of traders (due to holidays in the USA and the UK) the dollar started the week with a growth. Even though the pair started the week below the mark 110.60 it grew to the level 111.40 by the end of Monday. The resistance is at the level of 111.40, the support is at 110.60.

MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is above the signal line. MACD kept growing. The signal is bullish. Indicator is above 70 and is overbought.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 110.60 breakthrough down the way to the support 109.80 will be opened.



Franc

General overview

KOF published Leading Indicator for April (102.9 vs. previous 102.6 and forecast 102.8).

Current situation

The bulls in the pair USD/CHF could take the dollar upwards, the pair broke the mark of 0.9940. Still the USD/CHF could not hold over the level and started a downward correction. The second part of the day the pair remained below 0.9940. The resistance is at the level of 0.9940, the support is at 0.9850.

MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is below the signal line. MACD kept decreasing. The signal is bearish. RSI is neutral.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9940. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 1.0020.



CAD

General overview

Canada published Raw Material Price Index that rose more than expected (0.7% vs. expectations 2.2%).

Current situation

The tendency of the pair USD / CAD still looks bullish. The latest growth seems to be a correction from a decrease to the level of 1.2900. The pair managed to grow to 1.3100, where the growth was slowed down. The resistance is at the level of 1.3100, the support is at 1.2900.

MACD is on the zero line giving no signals. The histogram is above the signal line. RSI is neutral.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the support levels of 1.2900.



Gold

General overview

The gold continued to decline. The metal decreased due to Fed comments and due to the American regulator minutes publication. The number of traders who believe that the US will hike the rate in June grew that pressured the metal.

Current situation

The gold remained under pressure since last week. On Monday the gold quotes could test the support at around 1220 per ounce. From the level of 1220 the pair began a growth and was able to return some of the latest loss. The resistance is at the level of 1215, the support is at 1200.

MACD is in a negative area. MACD kept decreasing. The histogram is on the level of the signal line. RSI approached the oversold level of 30.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1200, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1180.



DAX30

General overview

The situation with DAX slightly changed on Monday. The index was traded in different directions during the day. DAX was influenced by oil prices decline and a possible rate hike in the United States.

Current situation

The index started the week at the level of 10284. DAX rose and was able to set a new high at 10348, where the index turned down and fell to the opening price zone. The resistance is at the level of 10350, the support is at 10175.

MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is below the signal line. MACD kept decreasing. The signal is bearish. RSI reached the overbought level of 70.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 10350 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support level of 10175.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

01.06.2016

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The ECB meeting is the main event in the Eurozone this week. We believe that the European regulator will not make any changes to its monetary policy.

Current situation

The pair attempted to recover on Tuesday. After a short consolidation on Monday, the pair returned the part of the previous losses. The pair returned to sales by the end of trades and tested the level of 1.1130.

The resistance is at 1.1200, the support is at 1.1130.

The MACD histogram is in a negative zone, above its signal line. The MACD decreased giving a signal to sell. RSI is in a neutral zone. The indicator does not give clear signals.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.1130, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.1070.


Pound

General overview

The pound resumed its decline. In general, the dollar remained strong against the pound after Janet Yellen’s speech last Friday. The market expects new drivers for a further movement.

Current situation

The pair declined on Tuesday. After a false breakout of 1.4670 the pair fell to 1.4480.
The resistance is at the level of 1.4560, the support is at 1.4480.

MACD is in the negative zone below the signal line. The indicator continued its decline showing a sell signal. The RSI signal line is close to the oversold zone.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.4480 and 1.4400.



Yen

The pair returned above the level of 110.40 amid the dollar growth. Abe (the Prime Minister of Japan) decided to postpone the increase in sales tax to 2.5 years.

Current situation

The quotes made attempts to break through the level of 111.40. The pair was in a narrow range of 110.60 - 111.33 all day. The pair tested the level of 110.60 by the end of the trades.
The resistance is at the level of 111.40, the support is at 110.60.
MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is below the signal line. MACD kept decreasingg. The signal is bearish. RSI is neutral. The indicator does not give clear signals.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 110.60, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 109.80.



Franc

General overview

The pair continued its growth. We believe that the pair shall become more volatile before the FED meeting in June.

Current situation

The market still looks bullish, despite the downward correction in the beginning of the week. The pair tested 0.9940, but failed to consolidate on it and fell. The USD/CHF bounced off the level 0.9900 upwards.

The resistance is at the level of 0.9940, the support is at 0.9850.

MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is below the signal line. MACD kept decreasing. The signal is bearish. RSI is neutral. The indicator does not give clear signals.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9940. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 1.0020.



CAD

General overview

We remain bearish on the outlook for the currency. If the Canadian economy continues weakening, the price may decline deeper.

Current situation

The pair grew on Tuesday and reached the resistance 1.3100. Its further movement depends whether the pair will break it or will bounce off from the resistance 1.3100. The resistance is at the level of 1.3100, the support is at 1.2900.

MACD is on the zero line giving no signals. The histogram is above the signal line. RSI is neutral. The indicator does not give clear signals.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.3100 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.3200.



Brent

General overview

The oil prices became volatile on the eve of the OPEC meeting on the 2nd of June. We believe that OPEC will not change anything in exporting policies.

Current situation

The market looks bullish at the higher timeframes. The oil grew the whole Tuesday and tested the level of 50.50. Then the price fell to the level of 49.60. The resistance is at the level of 50.50, the support is at 49.60.

The MACD histogram is in a positive zone. The histogram is above the signal line. The MACD continues to grow and gives a buy signal. RSI is neutral. The indicator does not give clear signals.

Trading recommendations

The oil prices can grow to the resistance level of 50.50. After breaking 50.50 the buyers may go to 51.50.



DAX30

General overview

Yesterday, the European stock market declined. The German DAX 30 fell by 0,61% due to the Volkswagen shares fall. The shares fell amid the latest automaker’s statement where he reported about 19,3% profit decrease.

Current situation

DAX moved in different directions on Tuesday. The index began trading from the maximum point reached on Monday – 10350. In the European session the index DAX 30 dropped and declined to 10175. The resistance is at the level of 10350, the support is at 10175.

MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is below the signal line. MACD kept decreasing. The signal is bearish. RSI is neutral. The indicator does not give clear signals.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 10350 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 10520 will be opened after this breakthrough.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

03.06.2016

Euro

General overview

The ECB meeting was the main event in the Eurozone this week. The European regulator left the rate unchanged. The ECB meeting results weakened the euro, at the same time the strong unemployment statistics in the USA supported the dollar. As the result the pair EUR/USD fell.

Current situation

The euro fell on Thursday due to the macroeconomic statistics in Europe and the United States. The pair could not hold at the level of 1.1200, and dropped down. The level of 1.1155 became the local minimum of the day. We believe that sellers are back and they will take the pair further down. The resistance is at 1.1200, the support is at 1.1130.

MACD is in a positive area, close to the zero line. The histogram is on the level of the signal line. MACD kept decreasing showing a sell signal. RSI approached the oversold level of 30.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1130 soon. The next target will be le level of 1.1070.



Pound

General overview

The British currency is still volatile after the latest poll regarding the UK membership in the EU. According to the poll the number of Britons who want leaving the EU grew vs. those who prefer staying in it.

Current situation

The British currency remained in the flat after a recent sharp decrease. The pair remained in the range 1.4400 – 1.4480. The market needs a break to recover from the losses. The resistance is at the level of 1.4480, the support is at 1.4400.

MACD indicator is in a negative area. The signal line is in a histogram. The signal is bearish. The indicator RSI is oversold.

Trading recommendations

We expect the flat will be continued.



Yen

General overview

The dollar in the USD/JPY fell when Japan postponed the planned sales tax increase. The Japanese government decided to move from the monetary policy easing to economic stimulus.

Current situation

The yen continued falling. The pair set a new local low level at the mark 108.80. The pair broke the level of 109.00 and stopped to consolidate. The resistance is at the level of 109.00, the support is at 108.20.

MACD is in a negative area. The signal line is in a histogram. MACD showing sell signal. RSI reached the oversold level of 30.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the flat will be continued. We do not exclude the growth to 109.00.



Franc

General overview

The Initial Jobless Claims number decreased in the USA. That is a good sign that showed that the USA economy kept recovering. The USA statistics supported the dollar that recovered and returned some of its previous losses.

Current situation

The pair recovered and returned some of the lost positions. The pair grew from the mark 0.9850 to 0.9900. The pair just tested the level 0.9900 and did not move higher. We believe that the pair shall return to the growth. The resistance is at the level of 0.9940, the support comes at 0.9850.

MACD indicator is in a negative area. MACD keeps growing. The signal line is in a histogram. The signal line of RSI bounced off the oversold level of 30.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 0.9940. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0020.



CAD

General overview

If the USA regulator postpones the rates hike the dollar may weaken (some of the economic indicators do not match the expected level). Stephen Poloz (the Canadian Bank Governor) gave his speech. Still his statement had a minor effect on the pair.

Current situation

The pair remained in the flat and was traded near the level of 1.3100. The USD/CAD moved in different ways on Thursday. The local low mark is the level of 1.3070, a day high lies at 1.3145. The resistance is at the level of 1.3100, the support is at 1.2900.

MACD indicator is in a positive area. The signal line is above the histogram. The indicator is decreasing showing a sell signal. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.3100, the next one is 1.3200. We do not exclude the falls to 1.2900.



AUD

General overview

The Australian dollar fell after the retail sales report in Australia. The index came worse that expected. The RBA may low its interest rates to 1.0% from the current 1.75%. The next RBA meeting will take place on 7th of June.

Current situation

The Australian dollar remained in a flat. The pair was traded near the mark of 0.7270. From a technical point of view the pair looks bearish. The resistance is at the level of 0.7270, the support lies at 0.7140.

MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is below the signal line. MACD keeps decreasing. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 0.7140, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 0.7040. We do not exclude the growth to 0.7270.



Brent

General overview

The Brent quotes grew after the OPEC meeting in Vienna. The OPEC decided not to limit its production and left the quotes at the same level.

Current situation

The Brent showed active trades yesterday. The OPEC meeting was the main driver for the oil quotes. The pair decreased at the European session and stopped above the support of 48.60. The support became the pivot point where the Brent oil grew to the resistance of 50.50. The resistance is at the level of 50.50, the support is at 49.60.

MACD indicator is in a positive area. The histogram is below the signal line. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 50.50 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 51.50.



DAX30

General overview

On Thursday, the European stock indexes showed a mixed background. Investors were cautious before the monthly decisions of the European Central Bank and preferred to stay away from any serious actions. The index grew by 0.03% during the European session.

Current situation

The market is still bearish. Yesterday the index tested the strong support of 10175. DAX 30 consolidated above the support 10175.. The resistance is at the level of 10350, the support is at 10175.

MACD indicator is in a positive area. The histogram is below the signal line. The MACD is declining, the signal is bearish. RSI approached the oversold level of 30.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 10350. After breaking 10350 the buyers may go to 10520.



Gold

General overview

We believe that the dollar can keep growing if the FED continues making aggressive statements. The strong dollar shall pressure all risky assets including the gold. The US regulator has been showing signals of his readiness to increase the rates further at the next meeting.

Current situation

The gold lost some of its positions yesterday. The pair broke the level 1215 downwards. The pair did not move deep and stopped at 1209.50. The metal needs new drivers to continue its moving. The resistance is at the level of 1215, the support is at 1200.

MACD is in a negative area, the histogram is above the signal line. MACD kept increasing. The signal is bullish. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1200 and 1180.



Dow Jones

General overview

The major indexes in the USA recovered and returned some of the losses which they had suffered after the Production PMI growth in the US. The PMI index has been growing the third month in a row. The Dow Jones index rose by the end of the trading day.

Current situation

The index recovered yesterday. Dow Jones grew from the level 17686 to 17815. The index looks bullish. The resistance is at the level of 17900, the support is at 17740.

MACD is in a negative area. MACD increased. RSI is neutral. The indicator does not give clear signals.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 17900 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 18000 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

06.06.2016

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The weak Nonfarm Payrolls can postpone the Fed rate hike.

Current situation

The pair grew last Friday. The EUR/USD broke the levels of 1.1200, 1.1250, 1.1300 and approached the mark of 1.3730. The pair looks bullish. The resistance is at 1.1370, the support is at 1.1300.

MACD is in a positive area, the signal line is in a histogram. MACD is growing, its signal is bullish. RSI reached the overbought level of 70.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.1370 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.1450.



Pound

General overview

The published Services PMI for May in the UK did not effect the pound. Still the pair grew after the weak Nonfarm Payrolls in the USA.

Current situation

The pair grew from the support of 1.4400. The pair broke the resistance 1.4480. The buyers could test the mark of 1.4560. Still the growing impulse faded out and the pair returned below the level. The resistance is at the level of 1.4560, the support is at 1.4480.

MACD is in a negative area. The histogram is above the signal line. The indicator MACD is giving a buy signal. RSI approached the overbought level of 70.

Trading recommendations

We believe the pair will remain in the flat.



Yen

General overview

Japanese currency finished last week in a green zone due to renewed discussions regarding differences among the US and Japanese monetary policies.

Current situation

The interest to the yen grew after a weak Non-Farms report. The pair fell and broke the levels 108.20 and 107.40. The resistance is at the level of 107.40, the support is at 106.60.

MACD is in a negative area. The histogram is above in the signal line. MACD kept decreasing. The indicator is showing a sell signal. The indicator RSI is below 30 and is oversold.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 106.60, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 105.80.



Franc

General overview

The weak Nonfarm Payrolls could postpone the rate hike in June. The weak unemployment indicator confirmed that the USA economy slowed down.

Current situation

After the latest unemployment news in the USA the pair decreased. The pair consolidated below 0.9850. The resistance is at the level of 0.9850, the support comes at 0.9750.

MACD indicator is in a negative area. The signal line is in the histogram. MACD is decreasing. The indicator RSI is oversold.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target – 0.9750. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9660.



CAD

General overview

Trade Balance deficit decreased in Canada in April, at the same time the export grew.

Current situation

The pair USD/CAD was in the range below 1.3100. By the end of Friday trades, the pair sharply declined towards the support of 1.2900 still the decline stopped above this level. The resistance is at 1.3100, the support comes in at 1.2900. The resistance is at the level of 1.3100, the support is at 1.2900.

MACD is in a negative zone, the signal line is above the histogram. MACD crossed the zero line downwards. MACD gives a sell signal. RSI is close to the oversold zone.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.2900 soon. The next target will be 1.2800.



AUD

General overview

The AUD fell by 6% against the USD when the RBA lowered its rate in May. Nevertheless the Australian dollar grew after the weak unemployment data in the USA. The Service PMI in Australia also supported the AUD.

Current situation

The pair AUD/USD grew last Friday. The price broke the resistance of 0.7270 and consolidated above it. The resistance is at 0.7400, the support area lies at 0.7270.

MACD is in a positive zone. The histogram is above its signal line. The indicator continues to grow and gives a signal to buy. RSI reached an overbought zone.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 0.7400 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 0.7530 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Brent

General overview

The Brent recovered after the OPEC meeting results. The OPEC could not set the limit in the oil production. Still the Brent returned to a decrease.

Current situation

The Brent tried to recover and grew to 50.50. However, the quotes did not test this level, the price bounced off to 49.60. The resistance is at 50.50, the support is at 49.60.

MACD indicator is in a positive area. The histogram is above the signal line. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the support level of 48.60. We do not exclude the growth to 50.50.



DAX30

General overview

The Bonds Markets decreased in the Eurozone amid the weak unemployment data in the USA. The weak Nonfarm Payrolls report lowered traders’ expectations regarding the rate hike in the USA in June.

Current situation

The German DAX 30 index was traded above the level of 10175. The index made attempts to grow. Still, the bearish sentiment grew by the end of traders and the index broke the level down. The resistance is at 10175, the support come in at 10000.

MACD indicator is on the ground level. The histogram is below the signal line. RSI is in a neutral zone. The indicator does not show clear signals.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the fall towards 10000, the next target will be 9760.



Gold

General overview

The safe assets quotes grew last Friday amid a weak Nonfarm Payrolls report in the USA.

Current situation

The gold was traded below 1215 before Non-Farms report publication. The metal grew after and broke the marks 1215 and 1235. The resistance is at the level of 1215, the support is at 1200.

MACD is in a positive area. MACD kept growing. RSI is overbought.

Trading recommendations

The price can grow to the resistance level of 1260.



Dow Jones

General overview

American futures showed the negative sentiment. American Bonds market was disappointed by the weak unemployment data in the USA.

Current situation

The index fell last Friday and tried to break the level of 17740. The index could recover by the trades end and consolidate over the level. The resistance is at the level of 17900, the support is at 17740.

MACD is on the zero line giving no signals. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal as well.

Trading recommendations

The index Dow Jones may remain in a flat.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

07.06.2016

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Janet Yellen’s speech became the main event of Monday. According to Janet Yellen the weak Non-Farms raised the regulator’s concerns. The release showed signs of new jobs growth slowdown.

Current situation

The euro remained at the local high that it had reached last week. The pair spent the first day of the week near the level of 1.1370. The trading was low volatile. The pair EUR/USD may bounce off soon from 1.1370 .The resistance is at 1.1370, the support is at 1.1300.

MACD is in a positive area, its signal is bullish. RSI reached the overbought level of 70. RSI shows a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The downward bounce potential targets are 1.1370 and 1.1300.



Pound

General overview

According to Janet Yellen (the head of the Federal Reserve) if the UK leaves the EU that can cause significant economical circumstances.

Current situation

The pair tried to break the level 1.4400 but failed and remained in a short range 1.4400 – 1.4480. Traders seem to take a pause after the last week decrease. The resistance is at the level of 1.4480, the support is at 1.4400.

MACD indicator is in a negative area, its signal line is below a histogram. MACD kept growing. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.4480, the next one is 1.4560.



Yen

General overview

The Fed Chairman noted in her speech that the current monetary policy was moderately challenging. The regulator expects further progress on its goals. The Fed will closely monitor any changes in the labor market.

Current situation

The pair made attempts to break the level of 106.60. The dollar reversed some losses by the end of Monday. The USD/JPY broke the level 106.60 upwards and tried to get hold over it. The resistance is at the level of 107.40, the support is at 106.60.

MACD is in a negative area. MACD kept growing. RSI approached the oversold level of 30 and bounced off it.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 107.40 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 108.20 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Franc

General overview

The Janet Yellen’s speech (the Federal Reserve Chairman) became the main event of Monday. The dollar slightly recovered against major currencies in anticipation of her comments. According to Janet Yellen the prospects of the US economy is very uncertain.

Current situation

The pair was decreasing the whole day yesterday. Sellers could take the price down. The pair USD/CHF broke the level 0.9750 and touched 0.9700. The new local low is at 0.9680. The price failed to go deeper and bounced off the support 0.9700. The resistance is at the level of 0.9850, the support comes at 0.9750.

The indicator MACD is in a negative area. The signal line is in the histogram. The indicator is below 30 and is oversold. RSI shows a buy signal.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9850.



Brent

General overview

According to Janet Yellen the price of oil keeps the inflation at low levels. Oil prices began to grow.

Current situation

The Brent still looks bearish. The quotes bounced off 49.60 and tested the mark 50.50. The black gold did not move further and remained at the reached mark. The resistance is at 50.50, the support is at 49.60.

MACD is in a positive area. MACD kept growing. RSI approached the overbought level of 70.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates above the resistance 50.50, it may continue the upward trend in the short term. The potential target is 51.50.



Gold

General overview

On Monday, the gold futures rose to two-week high in anticipation of Janet Yellen’s speech. Traders expected to get clues regarding the next interest rates hike in the US.

Current situation

The gold remained in a flat on Monday between the levels 1248 - 1239. The technical picture is uncertain. The quotes have recently broken 1215 and 1235. However the price failed to grow further and stopped near the mark 1250. The resistance is at the level of 1260, the support is at 1235.

The indicator MACD is in a negative area, its signal line is in the histogram. The indicator is giving a buy signal. RSI reached the overbought level of 70 and shows a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the support level of 1235.



DAX30

General overview

The news that the USA might not raise the rates this summer became an important driver of optimism on global bonds markets. The European stock markets closed in the green zone, supported by growth of shares of energy and raw material producers.

Current situation

The index DAX 30 remained in a flat. The index was traded between the levels of 10077 – 10158. The resistance is at 10175, the support come in at 10000.

The indicator MACD is in a negative area. The MACD signal line is in the histogram. The indictor kept decreasing yesterday. RSI reached the oversold level of 30 and bounced off it.

Trading recommendations

The index can grow to the resistance level of 10175. After breaking 10175 the buyers may go to 10350.



Dow Jones

General overview

If we keep hearing the Fed’s soft statements and if the regulator declares the risk of further economic decline the US dollar may get under pressure once again. The dollar decrease will cause a new wave of purchases in the Bonds market.

Current situation

The Dow Jones kept its bearish movement. The index broke and consolidated over the resistance at 17900 on Monday. The resistance is at the level of 18000, the support is at 17900.

MACD is in a positive area and is growing. RSI approached the overbought level of 70.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 18000.



Nasdaq

General overview

The external environment was positive for the index. Nasdaq rose by 0.26%. The major US stock indices showed a moderate growth.

Current situation

The index Nasdaq was in a flat during the European session of Monday. The index started to grow by the end of Monday. It bounced from the mark 4506 and grew to the way of 4550. The index looks bullish. The resistance is at the level of 4550, the support is at 4500.

The indicator MACD is in a positive area and keeps decreasing. RSI approached the overbought level of 70.

Trading recommendations

The index is likely to go to the support level of 4500.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

09.06.2016

Euro

General overview

The positive macroeconomic statistics in the Eurozone helped investors to find the strength and the desire for a new wave of euro purchases. There were no major events on the schedule on Wednesday.

Current situation

The overall outlook remains bullish. Buyers could push the dollar higher the resistance 1.1370. The price reached the round level of 1.1400 yesterday. The resistance is at 1.1450, the support is at 1.1370.

MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is below its signal line. MACD decreased giving a sell signal.

RSI reached the overbought level of 70. According to the indicator the price may change its direction soon. The price is above Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) at the daily time-frame. That is a bullish signal.

Trading recommendations

If the pair keeps growing it will reach the level of 1.1450 soon. Nevertheless the pair is overbought and we may expect a correction soon.



Pound

General overview
On Wednesday, manufacturing PMI supported the pound. The index showed the maximum growth in nearly four years (1.6% vs. previous -0.4%). Still the pound is under pressure because of the upcoming referendum.

Current situation

The pair GBP/USD showed volatile trades on Wednesday. The pair could set a new local high at the level of 1.4600 on the European session. However, the pair could not fixate its gains above the level of 1.4560 and returned on it. The resistance lies at 1.4560, the support is at 1.4480.

MACD crossed the zero line upwards. The signal line is in the histogram. MACD decreased. That is a sell signal. RSI approached the overbought level of 70 and bounced off. The Moving Average (200) limits the pound growth on the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

We are still bearish middle term. The break below 1.4480 should send this market looking for the 1.4400 level.



Yen

General overview

According to the statistics the volume of Chinese imports in May exceeded market expectations. The news reinforced hopes for a stabilization of the Chinese economy, despite the greater-than-expected fall in exports. The Chinese statistics weakened the investors' appetite for risk and supported the dollar in the pair USD/JPY.

Current situation

The tone is still negative in the market. The yen continued strengthening and the pair approached the recent lows at 106.35. The resistance is at 107.00, the support is at 106.00.MACD indicator is in a negative area.

MACD stopped its growing and returned to a decrease. That is a bearish signal. RSI is still near the oversold level of 30. The pair is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour graphic. The pair is on its historical lows at the daily chart. The pair was here last time in 2014.

Trading recommendations

From the technical point of view the pair is oversold. According to the indicators RSI and MA we may see a correction soon. The pair USD/JPY may decrease further to 106.00 where it can pivot upwards.



AUD

General overview

The Australian dollar came under pressure when Home loans index in Australia rose less than expected, as investments declined after rising in April.

Current situation

The Australian dollar grew during the course of the day setting new local high at 0.7480. The tone is still positive in the market. The resistance stands at 0.7500, the support lies at 0.7400.

MACD is in a positive area. MACD stopped growing yesterday. That is a buy signal. The indicator RSI is above 70 and is overbought. The price is above Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart.
That is a buy signal.

Trading recommendations

We feel comfortable taking long positions. The price may reach 0.7500 today. According to the indicators (MACD, RSI) the pair AUD/USD is overbought. In addition it has moved far from MA that suggests a correction.



GOLD

General overview
The Gold quotes continued to rise due to the falling of the dollar. The dollar weakened when the market reduced its expectations that the Fed would hike the rates in June.

Current situation
Traders pushed the gold higher yesterday. The metal grew from 1243 to the mark of 1263. The price touched the resistance at 1260. The metal grew by 1.32% during the course of the day. The resistance is at 1260, the support lies at 1235.

MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is below the signal line. MACD is growing showing a buy signal. RSI is in the overbought level of 70. The pair pushed from Moving Average (100) on the daily chart. The price is above Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200). The MA (200) is a support on the daily chart now.

Trading recommendations

The price stopped at 1260. Should that level break up and the price will grow to 1280. Otherwise we will see its move down to the support 1235.



Brent

General overview

Yesterday the oil prices grew on speculation that the weekly Crude Oil Stocks change may show the decline. In economic news, the index showed a decrease as expected.

Current situation

The oil quotes continued their growth. The price set a new high at 52.50. The oil trend looks bullish. The resistance comes in at 52.50, the support lies at 51.50.

MACD is in a positive area, its signal line is in the histogram. MACD kept growing, that is a bullish sign.
Still MACD shows a divergence on the 4 hour time frame. RSI reached the overbought level of 70. The Brent quotes are above Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200). The price is close to the historical highs at the daily chart – the mark of 54.00.

Trading recommendations
We are still bullish on the oil. We assume that the upward trend will be continued. The break above 52.50 should send this market looking for the 53.00 level.



Dax30

General overview

The European stocks fell on Wednesday after rising on the results of the previous two sessions. The German DAX lost 0.71%. Traders took a wait and see position, focusing on the important events coming this month. Thus, the Fed shall hold its regular meeting on 15st of June. The UK will hold a referendum regarding its membership in the EU on June 23 rd.

Current situation

The index decreased yesterday. The price fell from 10275 to 10175. The resistance comes at 10350, the support is at 10175. MACD is on the centerline, giving no signals. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal.

Trading recommendations

We expect a decrease. The break below 10175 should send this market looking for the 1000 level.



SP500

General overview

The S&P500 jumped by 0.26% due to the oil quotes growth in 2016 and the weakening of the dollar, giving the S & P 500. The index came close to the record highs that were set in May, 2015.

Current situation

SP500 remained in a flat. Buyers could not break the resistance of 2120. The resistance stands at 2120, the support lies at 2100.

MACD is in a positive area. The signal line is above the histogram. The indicator shows a divergence on the 4 hour chart. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal. Moving Average (50) acts as a support. The index is close to the historical highs at the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

The overall outlook remains bullish. Once we break above the 2120 level, we think that the 2130 level will be next.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- technical analysis.

10.06.2016

Euro

General overview

The euro fell against the US dollar due to the strengthening of the US currency and Mario Draghi’s speech. Mario Draghi called on national governments to help the ECB to accelerate the economic growth and the inflation in the region. The regulator warned that the lack of economic reforms makes the task of the Central Bank harder.

Current situation

The dollar reversed some of its losses yesterday. The pair fell by 0.68%. Traders started to close their long positions that caused the euro sales. The pair fell from the level of 1.1416 to the support 1.1300. The resistance is at 1.1370, the support is at 1.1300.

MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is below its signal line. MACD decreased giving a sell signal. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal. The price is above Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) at the daily time-frame. The Moving Averages crossed each other on the 4 hour time frame, showing that the price changed its direction.

Trading recommendations

We believe that the pair shall continue its correction and will decrease further. The price may stay for a while on the support at 1.1300 to continue its decrease later. We assume the mark 1.1200 is the sellers’ target.



Pound

General overview

On Thursday, the pair kept weakening as the market was concerned about the upcoming referendum results. The published statistics in the UK could not support the pound.

Current situation

The pair GBP/USD was less volatile yesterday. The price spent the day in the narrow range: 1.4525 –1.4440. Sellers tried to push the price down but failed and the price spent the day at the level of 1.4480.
The resistance lies at 1.4560, the support is at 1.4480.

MACD is on the zero line. The signal line is above the histogram. MACD decreased yesterday. That is a sell signal. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal. The Moving Average (200) does not let the pound to fall further on the 4 hour time frame.

Trading recommendations

We are still bearish. The 200 Moving Averages works as a support. If the price breaks below the level of 1.4480 the pair shall decrease to 1.4400 level. Otherwise we will see a bounce upwards to 1.4560.



Yen

General overview

The uncertainty in global financial markets made investors look for safety assets: the US dollar and the Japanese yen. Meanwhile, the US dollar rose when Initial Jobless Claims unexpectedly fell (264K vs. expectations 270K).

Current situation

The tone remained negative in the market. The yen remained at the local lows staying in a range 106.80 – 106.25. The pair began to grow at Asian session. Its quotes could break the level 107.00. The resistance is at 107.00, the support is at 106.00.

MACD indicator is in a negative area. MACD may continue its growth today. That might be a buy signal. RSI is still near the oversold level of 30. The pair USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour graphic. The pair is on its historical lows at the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

The USD/JPY is oversold and we expect a correction. The levels of 107.00 and 108.00 are its targets.



NZD

General overview

The New Zealand dollar grew by 0.49% when the Reserve Bank of New Zealand did not change the interest rate.

Current situation

The NZD/USD jumped upwards. The pair grew with the gap and stopped at 0.7150. The pair spent the day in a range: 0.7100 – 0.7150. The tone is still positive in the market. The resistance stands at 0.7150, the support comes in at 0.7050.

MACD is in a positive area and shows a buy signal. The indicator RSI is above 70 and is overbought. The price is above Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are growing. That is a buy signal.

Trading recommendations

We prefer to wait and see the further dynamics. The pair is overbought and formed a gap. The price may decrease soon. Shall the pair decrease it will drop to 0.6900 (50 Moving Average).



GOLD

General overview

The upcoming referendum in the UK together with the Fed meeting next week are the main drivers for the gold metal. We believe that the dollar dynamics shall set the tone of the gold.

Current situation

The gold quotes continued to grow yesterday. The futures spent the Asian and European sessions in a flat.
The unemployment statistics in the USA supported the metal and its quotes grew from the support 1260 to the mark 1270 at the American session. The resistance is at 1280, the support lies at 1260.

MACD is in a positive area. The signal line is in the histogram. MACD grew yesterday and showed a buy signal. RSI is in the overbought level of 70. The price is above Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200). The MA (200) is a support on the daily chart now.

Trading recommendations

The gold is close to the strong resistance 1280. The gold futures fell from this level last time in May. The gold may decrease to the level 1260 to continue the growth from it. Nevertheless the further dynamics of gold depends on the next Fed meeting results.



Brent

General overview

The Brent futures fell after updating the year highs on Thursday morning. The moderate recovery of the US dollar and investors’ desire to take profits became the main drivers for the Brent correction.

Current situation

The oil quotes continued their growth. The price set a new high at 52.50. The oil trend looks bullish. The resistance comes in at 52.50, the support lies at 51.50.
MACD is in a positive area, its signal line left the histogram.

MACD decreased yesterday. If MACD decreases it will give a sell signal. RSI is still close to the overbought level of 70. The Brent quotes are above Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200). The price is close to the historical highs at the daily chart –
the mark of 54.00.

Trading recommendations

The Brent may continue its correction and fell to the mark of 50.50 where the Moving Average (50) is located.



Dax30

General overview

The European stock indexes declined two days in a row. The concerns about the future of the global economy continued to pressure investors. Mario Draghi (head of the European Central Bank) urged leaders to support the Eurozone economy.


Current situation

The index decreased yesterday. The price fell from 10226 to the mark 10023. The resistance comes at 10175, the support is at 1000.

MACD is in the negative area and gives a sell signal. RSI is close to the oversold area. The index fell through Moving Averages 50 and 200. Moving Average 100 stopped is decrease.

Trading recommendations

We expect the decrease shall be continued. Sellers seem to want seeing the price at the level of 9760.



NASDAQ

General overview

The USA indices fell due to the oil quotes and the US Treasuries decrease. The strengthening of the dollar also weakened the index.

Current situation

Nasdaq remained in a flat. The index decreased from 4517 to the support 4500. Sellers could not push the price down and the quotes remained at the current support level. The price remained between two levels: 4550 and 4500.

MACD is on the zero line and gives no signal. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal. Moving Average (50) acts as a resistance now.

Trading recommendations

The break below the support of 4500 shall send the price to the mark 4460 (Moving Average 100). Otherwise we will see a bounce upwards



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- technical analysis.

13.06.2016

Euro

General overview

The euro got under pressure when Mario Draghi (the European Central Bank Governor) warned the market that the weak economic growth in the Eurozone could lead to a "long-term losses."

Current situation

The pair EUR/USD spent almost the whole Friday at the level of 1.1300. The pair consolidated after a sharp decrease that had happened a day earlier. The EUR/USD returned to a decrease at the American session and ended the trading week in the red zone at the mark of 1.1250. The resistance is at 1.1300, the
support is at 1.1250.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram is below its signal line. MACD decreased, that is a sell signal. RSI is closed to the oversold area. That is a sell signal too. The price broke through Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chat. The Moving Averages crossed each other on the 4 hour time frame, showing that the price is changing its direction.

Trading recommendations

Even though the indicators look bearish we prefer to stay away from a trading before the Fed meeting.
The market is going to be volatile that increases risks.

If we decide to sell we would wait for the price to consolidate below Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. Another sell signal is MACD in the negative area. The sellers’ target is the level 1.1200. Otherwise we would see a bounce upwards to 1.1370.



Pound

General overview

The British pound fell against the dollar due to concerns regarding the upcoming referendum on 23 rd of June. According to Timex/YouGov 43% of Britons would vote to stay in the union and 42% would leave it.

Current situation

The sellers were able to drive the pair lower. The quotes decreased and broke the levels 1.4400, 1.4320 and 1.4240. After breaking the mark 1.4240 the pound reversed some of its losses and ended the trading week at 1.4253. The resistance is at 1.4320, the support come in at 1.4240.

MACD is in the negative area. The signal line is in the histogram. MACD decreased, that is a sell signal.
RSI is in the oversold zone. The price broke Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. That is a sell signal. The price is close to the strong support at 1.4150 on the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

The price is oversold and it may bounce upwards to the strong level 1.4400. If we see the price below the support 1.4320 we would sell to 1.4150



Yen

General overview

The yen is under pressure on the eve of Japanese and the USA Central Bank meetings. The referendum in the Great Britain is another factor that pressured the yen. We believe that the industrial production and retail sales report in China may well set the tone for trading in the new week.

Current situation

The yen spent last Friday at the level 107.00. The pair remained in a range between levels of 106.60 and 107.30. The resistance is at 107.00, the support is at 106.00.

MACD indicator is in a negative area, the histogram is growing. MACD shows a convergence (that is a strong reversal signal). RSI is still close the oversold level of 30. That is a buy signal. The pair USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The pair is on its lows from 2014 at the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

The USD/JPY is still oversold and we expect a correction. Once we break above the 107.00 level, we assume that the 108.00 level will be next



CAD

General overview

On one hand Initial Jobless claims in the USA supported the dollar that grew in the USA/CAD. On the other hand the oil quotes decrease dispelled the demand for the Canadian dollar. Both these factors helped the pair to recover.

Current situation

The USD/CAD showed volatile trades last Friday. The pair fell in the European session, still sellers were not able to move the price below 1.2680. The USD/CAD quotes reversed some of the losses in the American session when the price started to grow. The trades ended at the level of 1.2780. The resistance
stands at 1.2800, the support comes in at 1.2680.

MACD is in the negative area, the histogram is growing. That is a buy signal. The indicator RSI is in the neutral area. The price is below Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The price is on the strong level from 2015 on the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

We believe the pair will correct as it is oversold and is on the strong support on the daily chart. The MACD is growing. The RSI bounced off the oversold area. In addition the price went too far from the Moving Averages and shall grow to them. We believe the pair shall reverse to 1.3000.

As an alternative scenario the pair may decrease to the round level 1.2500.



GOLD

General overview

Low expectations that the USA regulator will hike the rate this month supported the gold last week.

Current situation

The gold quotes continued their growth on Friday. The futures spent the Asian session in a correction that ended at the European one. The gold was growing and almost reached the resistance at 1280. The resistance is at 1280, the support lies at 1260.

MACD is in a positive area. The signal line is in the histogram. MACD grew on Friday that is a buy signal. RSI is in the overbought level of 70. That is a sell signal. The price is above Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200).

Trading recommendations

The gold is close to the strong resistance 1280 on the daily chart. Besides the metal is overbought. The gold may start a correction soon. The sellers’ target is the mark 1200. Nevertheless we recommend staying away from trading before the situation about the USA rates becomes clear. The gold futures may keep growing if the Fed leaves the rates unchanged



Brent

General overview

Brent fell after reaching almost yearly highs. The correction happened due to the strengthening of the dollar. However, refineries and supply disruptions from Nigeria still support the oil.

Current situation

The oil quotes stopped their growth. The Brent decreased and broke a number of levels on its way: 52.50, 51.50. The oil futures ended the week at the mark 50.50. The resistance comes in at 51.50, the support lies at 50.50.

MACD is still in the positive area, its signal line left the histogram. MACD is decreasing and that is a sell signal. RSI is still close to the oversold level of 30. The Brent quotes stopped at the 50 Moving Average that did not let the Brent to fall.

Trading recommendations

The Brent looks oversold and may slow down its decrease. The quotes shall wait for new drivers, such as the Fed meeting results and Weekly Crude Oil Stock report.

The Brent has all chances to bounce off. If the quotes bounce they will grow back to 52.50. If the prices advance lower 50.50 the decrease will be continued



Dax30

General overview

On Friday, the European stock indexes fell due to oil prices decrease and Mario Draghi’s comments.

Current situation

The index started Friday with a gap down. The price fell from 10085 to the mark 9760. The DAX broke on its way the level 1000 and touched the level of 9760. The resistance comes in at 1000, the support is at 9760.

MACD is in the negative area that is a sell signal. RSI is in the oversold area. The index fell through Moving Averages 50, 100 and 200. The level 9760 is a strong support on the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

The index is oversold. We expect a correction after a three days decrease. Shall the Dax30 increase it will grow to 1000. The support 9760 does not let the index to fall. If this level is broken DAX30 will fall deeper to 9570



SP500

General overview

The USA Bonds Market decreased its volatility before the major event in the month – the Fed meeting regarding the USA rates hike.

Current situation

The index showed active trades on Friday. Most of the day SP500 was decreasing with several stops at 2100 and 2095. The index bounced off from 2095 to 2103. However that turned out to be a short break that ended with resumption to a decrease. SP500 ended the week at 2086, the same level that a week ago.
The resistance comes at 2100, the support is at 2086.

MACD is in the negative area that is a bearish signal. RSI is close to the oversold area. The index broke through the 50 Moving Average and stopped on the 100 Moving Average.

Trading recommendations

The index is oversold so we may see a correction today. The main trend is bullish on the daily chart. Besides the price is close to the 50 Moving Average and may bounce from it as it did before. If we do not see a break below the support 2086 the price will return to the growth.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- technical analysis.

13.06.2016

Euro

General overview

The risk aversion and the growth of the pair EUR/GBP supported the euro. The economic calendar was empty on Monday as a result we had a low volatile day. Now the attention of the market is turned to the Fed meeting.

Current situation

The pair EUR/USD spent almost the whole Monday at the level of 1.1250. The pair consolidated after a sharp decrease that had happened last week. The quotes began its correction during the American session. The EUR/USD managed to test 1.1300. The resistance is at 1.1300, the support is at 1.1250.

MACD is in the negative area. MACD decreased, that is a sell signal. RSI bounced from the oversold area. That is a buy signal. The rebound above 1.1250 should be considered corrective.
The 50 Moving Average is directed downwards, that is a sell signal

Trading recommendations

The market looks bearish. We feel comfortable taking short-term sell positions. Shall the pair decrease it will fall to 1.1130. We also do not exclude a corrective growth to the level 1.1370 if the price bounces upwards from the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200).



Pound

General overview

The British pound fell against the US dollar last week as investors are seriously concerned that the UK may leave the EU.

Current situation

The sellers controlled the market. The quotes continued their decrease and broke the level 1.4240 on Monday and touched 1.4150. All buyers’ attempts to grow met the serious resistance from the sellers’ part. The GBP/USD tried to recover but failed. The pair touched the resistance 1.4320 and immediately fell again below 1.4240. The resistance is at 1.4240, the support come in at 1.4150.

MACD is in the negative area. The MACD does not show any divergence. The indicator decreased, that is a sell signal. RSI is in the oversold zone. That is a buy signal. The pair consolidated below Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart that worsened its short term outlook. The price is close to the bottom of the market that was set in the beginning of 2016.

Trading recommendations

The price is oversold, the market looks bearish. The price may bounce upwards to the level 1.4320. However a drop back below 1.4150 may force the GBP/USD to resume its downward trajectory and fell below 2016 lows.



Yen

General overview

The yen strengthened against the dollar. The Japanese currency gained an additional impulse when the weak economic data in China and Japan worsened the outlook for the economic growth in Asia.

Current situation

The yen continued its decrease and tested the support at 106.00. The pair remained under pressure due to upcoming events: the Fed and BoJ meetings. The yen is in demand being a safe heaven currency. The resistance is at 107.00, the support is at 106.00.

MACD indicator is in a negative area, the histogram decreased. MACD shows a convergence (that is a strong reversal signal). RSI is close the oversold level of 30. That is a buy signal. The pair USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The pair is on its lows from 2014 at the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

The pair may decrease further as the risks kept growing in the market amid the upcoming Fed and BoJ meetings. The pair may decrease to 105.30. We still may see a rebound up to 108.00.



AUD

General overview

The AUD / USD rose when the market received positive data from China. According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the Industrial Production PMI remained unchanged, its results were higher than economists' expectations. Australian Financial markets were closed for a public holiday on Monday.

Current situation

The AUD/USD decreased last week due to the dollar strengthening. The pair started with a growth the current week. The pair could reverse some of its losses. The AUD/USD was able to reach the mark of 0.7400 where the growth slowed down. The resistance stands at 0.7500, the support comes in at 0.7400.

MACD is on the zero line, the indicator does not give a signal. The indicator RSI is in the neutral area. The price is above Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages (50 and 200) work as a support for the pair.

Trading recommendations

The quotes bounced off the Moving Averages (50 and 200). The price may grow to the local high at 0.7500. As an alternative scenario the pair will decrease to the level 0.7270 and further to 0.7140.



GOLD

General overview

On Monday, the gold futures grew to fresh four-week highs. Investors prepared for the Fed meeting.

Current situation

The gold quotes tried to continue their growth on Monday. However, the wave of growth slowed down and stopped at the mark of 1287. The pair spent the whole day just above the level of 1280. The resistance is at 1300, the support lies at 1280.

MACD is in a positive area that is a buy signal. The signal line is in the histogram. RSI is in the overbought level of 70. That is a sell signal. The price is above Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200). There was a crossover on the Moving Averages that is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The gold metal is overbought. We expect a correction. The sellers’ target is the mark 1260.



Brent

General overview

The Brent prices continued to decline as the weak economic data from Asia had revived concerns about the global economic outlook. The strengthening of the US also had a negative impact on the oil prices.

Current situation

The oil quotes stopped their decrease and even made an attempt to grow. The Brent started the week from the support at 49.60. The futures grew to the level of 50.50 but failed to consolidate above it. The resistance comes in at 50.50, the support lies at 49.60.

MACD is in the negative area, its signal line is in the histogram. MACD decreased and that is a sell signal. RSI bounced off the oversold level of 30. That is a buy signal. The Brent quotes bounced off the 100 Moving Average that is a buy signal.

Trading recommendations

The Brent may return to a growth if it breaks the resistance 50.50 (the 50 Moving Average). If the quotes consolidate over 51.00 it will advance north to 52.50. Otherwise we will see a drop below 49.60.



Dax30

General overview

On Monday, the European stock indices opened with a sharp decrease, as investors remained cautious ahead of meetings of two Central Banks (the US and Japanese). The oil prices decrease pressured the indices as well.

Current situation

The index showed low volatile trades and remain at the opening prices level during the Asian and European sessions. The price fell at the American session. The new local low is at 9630. The resistance comes in at 9760, the support is at 9550.

MACD is in the negative area that is a sell signal. RSI is in the oversold area. The index fell through Moving Averages 50, 100 and 200 and moved away from them. The level 9760 is a strong support on the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

The index is oversold. We expect a correction this week. Shall the Dax30 increase it will grow to 1000. If the index consolidates 9670 it will fall deeper to 9550.



SP500

General overview

The weakening of the dollar and the growth of oil prices pressured the USA indices. All indices are in the "red zone" in anticipation of upcoming statistical data in the US (the rate hike, retail sales, inflation and others.)

Current situation

The index tried to recover on Monday. SP500 bounced from the support 2086 and grew to the current resistance 2100. SP500 failed to grow further and returned at the opening price level. The resistance comes at 2100, the support is at 2086.

MACD is in the negative area that is a bearish signal. RSI is close to the oversold area. That is a buy signal. The index broke through the 50 Moving Average and stopped on the 100 Moving Average. There is an upward trend on the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

If the price consolidates above 2100 the price may return to the growth. If the index does make a breakout at that level 2100 we will see a drop to 2070



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- technical analysis.

15.06.2016

Euro

General overview

Even though the Eurozone published positive industrial production report the euro continued its decrease. The euro is near the new lows of the week due to German government bonds yields falling and due to concerns about the referendum in the UK.

Current situation

The price moved in the descending price channel. Its low boundary is at 1.1230, the upper boundary is located at 1.1300. Yesterday the growth wave faded away, sellers returned to the market. The pair EUR/USD fell from the resistance 1.1300. The price broke the level of 1.1250 and approached the mark of 1.1200. The pair began a consolidation phase. The resistance is at 1.1250, the support is at 1.1200.

MACD is in the negative area. MACD decreased, that is a sell signal. RSI is in the oversold area. If oscillator leaves the oversold area upwards it will give a buy signal. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are parallel to each other. The main trend is down.


Trading recommendations

The pair now seems to be heading towards the support near 1.1130. The level of 1.1300 limits the growth of the pair. An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above this resistance.



Pound

General overview

Yesterday the pound was trading nearly two-month low against the dollar. The inflation in May remained at the same level, while the concerns about the Brexit pressured the pound.

Current situation

Technically, the main trend is down on the daily chart. The pair continued its decrease and broke the level 1.4240. The decrease was stopped by the resistance 1.4150. The pair spent the last part of the day near that level. The resistance is at 1.4240, the support come in at 1.4150.

MACD is in the negative area. The indicator decreased, that is a sell signal. RSI is in the oversold zone. We consider that as a buy signal. The pair is below Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are directed downwards. That is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The quotes are near the year low and we do not think the pair will break it easily. The support 1.4060 limits the decrease of the pair. If this level can hold we will see a bounce off to the level 1.4400. An downtrend will start as soon as the pair drops below this support level.



Yen

General overview

On Tuesday, Taro Aso (Japanese Finance Minister) warned the market against the latest strengthening of the yen. According to Taro Aso the officials would "respond decisively" to prevent speculative movements in the currency market.
Current situationThe yen continued its decrease and set a new day low at 105.64. After reaching the mark 105.64 was in a sideway, remaining under pressure. The resistance is at 107.00, the support is at 106.00.

MACD indicator is in a negative area, the histogram decreased. MACD shows a convergence. RSI is close the oversold level of 30. That is considered as a buy signal. The pair USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The pair is on the year lows on the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

If the support 105.30 will be broken, the price may fall further to 104.50. An uptrend will start as soon as the pair grows above the resistance level 107.00.



NZD

General overview

The market is not ready to risk before the main events of this week (the Fed and BoJ meetings). The decrease of the European Bonds markets and the bearish tone around oil prices pressured the pair NZD/USD.

Current situation

The NZD/USD returned below the level of 0.7050. The pair was under pressure and headed towards the level 0.6950. The resistance stands at 0.7050, the support comes in at 0.6950.

MACD is on the zero line. If MACD went into the negative area it shall give a sell signal. The indicator RSI is in the neutral area. The indicator is approaching the oversold area. The price is above Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The price is close to the 50 Moving Average which is just above the nearest support line. The MA can stop the quotes from the decrease or can bounce them up.

Trading recommendations

The level 0.7000 used to be a strong resistance, now it is the key level for a downtrend. We hardly can imagine the strengthening of the NZD when the anti-risk sentiment prevails. Our eyes are right now at the support level 0.6950. If the pair breaks it the way to the level 0.6850 will be open.



GOLD

General overview

The gold futures took a pause before the Fed meeting results announcement.

Current situation

The gold futures declined during the Asian and the European sessions on Tuesday. The metal returned to a growth during the American session. The gold set a new day high at the mark 1289. The gold is trying to consolidate above the level of 1280.00 and continue to grow on the one hour chart. The resistance is at 1300, the support lies at 1280.

MACD is in a positive area, the histogram declined that is a sell signal. The signal line left the histogram. That is a pivot signal. RSI is in the overbought level of 70. That is a buy signal. Shall the signal line leave the overbought zone down we will get a sell signal. The price is above Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200). There was a crossover on the Moving Averages. The Moving Averages are directed upwards.

Trading recommendations

The gold futures are at 1280.00 on the daily chart. That is a very important level which may act as a further level of support if the price closes above it. Therefore, it is the best to wait for a consolidation above or below the level.



Brent

General overview

The Brent declined when investors ignored signs of narrowing of the market due to concerns about the global growth slow down and stock markets decrease before the referendum in the UK.

Current situation

The oil futures spent the day in a sideway movement that was between 49.50 and 50.00. The resistance comes in at 50.50, the support lies at 49.50.
MACD is in the negative area, its signal line is in the histogram. MACD decreased and that is a sell signal. RSI is close to the oversold level of 30. The Brent quotes are below Moving Averages (50 and 100) that serve as a resistance.

Trading recommendations

If the Brent remains below 50.50 it shall decrease to 48.50. Alternatively, the Brent may grow to 51.50.



Nasdaq

General overview

The US stock indexes fell due to the increased traders’ nervousness before the meeting of the Fed and the referendum in the UK.

Current situation

The index tried to recover on Tuesday. Nasdaq reversed to 4430. Sellers returned to the market at the American session and sent the price down. The index fell through the support 4400 and stopped at 4383. The resistance comes at 4400, the support is at 4350.

MACD is in the negative area that is a bearish signal. RSI is in the oversold area. If the line leaves the oversold area upwards we shall get a buy signal. The index broke through the 200 Moving Average. The 50 and 100 Moving Averages are above the price.

Trading recommendations

We believe the index shall decrease until the Fed announces its decision regarding the rate. The weakness of the market can send the index to the support 4350. Nasdaq can bounce to 4440.



SP500

General overview

The key stock indices closed the day in the "red zone" on expectations of a two-day meeting of the Fed. Current situationThe index tried to recover and was able to reach 2061 when sellers returned to the market and sent the price down. SP500 quotes broke the level 2070 and set a new local low at 2060. The resistance comes in at 2070, the support is at 2055.

MACD is in the negative area that is a bearish signal. RSI is in the oversold area. If the line leaves the oversold area we shall get a buy signal. The index broke through the 200 Moving Average. The 50 and 100 Moving Averages are above the SP500. There is an upward trend on the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

If the price remains below the level 2070 (SMA 200) the downtrend will be continued. Any move above this level should be considered corrective.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- technical analysis.

16.06.2016

Euro

General overview

The upcoming referendum in the UK kept pressuring the pair. The Fed announced its decision regarding the rates. As expected, the regulator left the rates unchanged.

Current situation

The pair remained in the descending channel. In general, the euro is still under pressure, even though it recovered yesterday. The pair EUR/USD grew to the mark of 1.1300 after the Fed decision. The resistance is at 1.1300, the support come in at 1.1250.

MACD is in the negative area. The indicator grew that is a buy signal. RSI bounced from the oversold area upwards, it is another buy signal. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are parallel to each other, the price broke them upwards.

Trading recommendations

If the pair fixates above the level 1.1300 we will see a growth to 1.1400 – 1.1450. The consolidation below 1.1250 will made bears stronger. The pair will decrease to 1.1130.



Pound

General overview

The pound remained under pressure. Nevertheless the concerns that the UK can leave the EU weakened when the fresh UK statistics was published. In economic news: Unemployment Rate decreased and average earnings grew.

Current situation

Technically, the main trend is down on the daily chart. The pair recovered yesterday and could grow to the mark 1.4213. Buyers were not able to take the price higher and it decreased to the level 1.4150. The pair is at the year lows. The resistance is at 1.4240, the support come in at 1.4150.

MACD is in the negative area. The indicator grew, that is a buy signal. RSI grew from the oversold zone. That is also a buy signal. The pair is below Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are directed downwards. That is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

Once the pair breaks above the 1.4240 level we will see it growing to 1.4400. Alternatively, we expect a decrease to 1.4060.



Yen

General overview

Investors bought the yen amid the uncertainty regarding the referendum in the UK. The fact that the Fed did not change the rates supported the yen as well.

Current situation

The pair remained under pressure. The dollar tried to grow during the day still the upcoming Fed meeting pressured it. The pair USD/JPY could recover to 106.40 where it turned down and decreased. The pairbroke the level 106.00 on its way. The price remained in a side channel. The resistance is at 106.00, the support is at 105.30.

We received a sell signal from MACD. The indicator decreased. RSI is close the oversold level of 30. Shall RSI return to the oversold area and we will get another sell signal. Alternatively, if it grows it will give an opposite signal. The pair USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4
hour chart. The Moving Averages are directed downwards. The pair is on the year lows on the daily chart.

Trading recommendations
The pressure is preserved. We expect a further decline towards 104.50.



CAD

General overview

The growth of the manufacturing sector did not support the Canadian dollar. The oil prices continued putting pressure on the CAD.

Current situation

The USD/CAD continued its recovery during the day. Bulls seemed to return to the market and took the price upwards. The pair broke through the resistance 1.2900 and advanced further to the north. Still it failed to grow and returned below 1.2900. The resistance stands at 1.3000, the support comes in at 1.2900.

MACD is in the positive area. The indicator is growing, that is a buy signal. The indicator RSI approached the overbought area. That is a buy signal. The price broke through the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart.

Trading recommendations

If the pair returns below 1.2900 the decrease will be continued. The closest sellers’ targets are: 1.2800 and 1.2680. The level 1.1300 remained the target for the bulls.



GOLD

General overview

The Fed decision and J.Yellen’s speech supported the gold. According to Yellen the regulator shall be cautious with the rate hike. Also, Yellen asked not to pay to much attention to the latest week labor market reports.

Current situation

The gold found a support around $1280 per ounce yesterday. The precious metal was able to grow to the level of 1292 that limited its further growth. The demand for the gold is preserved, it has the chance to test the 13th figure.

MACD is in a positive area, the histogram increased that is a buy signal. The signal line left the histogram. RSI is close to the overbought level of 70. If the price enters the overbought area we will get a buy signal. The price is above Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200). There was a crossover on the Moving Averages. The Moving Averages are directed upwards.

Trading recommendations

The Fed decision supported the gold, as expected. We believe the gold will grow and will reach the mark 1300 soon.



Brent

General overview

The Crude Oil Stocks change report came in worsened than traders’ expectations. Its results pressured the oil quotes. Besides, the Fed left unchanged its monetary policy that had pressured the oil as well.

Current situation

The oil quotations remained under pressure. The Brent broke through the support at 49.50 dollars per barrel, and then fell to the level of 48.50. The 49th figure limited its attempts to recover.

MACD is in the negative area, the histogram remained at the same level. RSI is close to the oversold level of 30. The Brent quotes are below Moving Averages (50 and 100) that serve as a resistance. The MA 200 is just below the price. The 200 Moving Average does not let the pair to fall further.

Trading recommendations

If the Brent remains below 50.50 it shall decrease to 48.50 and further down to 47.50. Alternatively, the Brent may grow to 51.50.



DAX30

General overview

On Wednesday, the European stocks opened with a growth due to the positive sentiment growth before the Fed meeting.

Current situation

The index started Wednesday with a gap upwards. The upcoming Fed meeting supported the European Bonds market. The index was able to recover to 9666 where it stopped and slightly decreased. The resistance comes at 9760, the support is at 9550.

MACD is in the negative area. Its histogram grew that is a buy signal. RSI is in the oversold area. If the line leaves the oversold area upwards we shall get a buy signal. There was a crossover on the Moving Averages. The Moving Averages are directed downward.

Trading recommendations

We expect the index to grow. Our eyes are right now at the support level 9665. Should that level break up the DAX30 will grown to 9760 – 9800.



SP500

General overview

The US stocks grew on Wednesday, the first time in five days. The decreased chances for the rate hike supported the indices. The stocks remained near Tuesday's levels slightly above the minimum of four weeks.

Current situation

The index recovered from the level 2070 on Wednesday. The quotes were able to reverse to 2090. However buyers were not able to hold the index at the local high. SP500 decreased back to 2070. The resistance comes in at 2086 the support is at 2070.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram grew yesterday that is a bullish signal. RSI left the oversold area upwards that is a buy signal. The index broke through the 200 Moving Average. The 50 and 100 Moving Averages are above the SP500. There is an upward trend on the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

If the index gets below 2070 the decrease will be continued.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- technical analysis.

17.06.2016

Euro

General overview

The euro significantly fell against the US dollar. The latest Fed meeting returned interest to the US currency. The USA published Initial Jobless Claims that turned out to be worse than the forecast. Nevertheless the USA statistics had little impact on the pair.

Current situation

The pair left more that 0.60% during the Thursday trades. The EUR/USD fell from the beginning of the European session. The pair decreased from 1.1300 to 1.1130. The price broke two supports on its way: 1.1250 and 1.1200. After testing 1.1130 the pair gained back some losses. The day the pair ended at 1.1250. The resistance is at 1.1250, the support come in at 1.1200.

The pair remained in the descending channel. The technical indicators are within the bearish zone on the 4-hour chart. The price is below all the moving averages, indicating a possible further decline.

MACD is in the negative area. There was a sell signal when the indicator decreased. RSI is near the oversold area, it is also a sell signal. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are parallel to each other. There was a crossover on the Moving Averages. The Moving Averages direction is downwards.

Trading recommendations
The indicators recommend short positions. Any rebound above 1.1250 should be considered as corrective. Should the level 1.1130 break down the price will decrease to 1.1000



Pound

General overview

The retail sales grew in the UK in May. The UK economy still has strength despite the uncertainty about the outcome of the referendum. The UK Central Bank left its monetary policy unchanged.

Current situation

The pair was decreasing yesterday during the European session. The pair fell from 1.4215 and reached the mark of 1.4011. The pair GBP/USD turned upwards on the American session and reversed some of its losses. The pair recovered from 1.4000 and reached the opening price level. The resistance is at 1.4240, the support come in at 1.4150.

The technical indicators lost their bearish impulse, but remained in the red zone. The MACD recovered, its sell signal faded. RSI bounced from the oversold area. If the oscillator remains above the oversold area we will get a buy signal. The Moving Averages are moving downwards which is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

Once the pair breaks above the 1.4240 level we will see it growing to 1.4400. Alternatively, we expect a decrease to 1.4060



Yen

General overview

The Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged, despite the weak global growth and low inflation.Current situation The yen was able to strengthen at yesterday’s trades. The pair decreased from the level 105.50. The USD/JPY was able to set a new local low at the mark 103.50. In general the pair lost about 1.40% during Thursday. The resistance is at 105.30, the support is at 104.50.

After MACD decreased, there was a sell signal from the indicator. RSI is in the oversold level. If RSI remain in the oversold area we will get another sell signal. Alternatively, if it grows it will give an opposite signal. The pair USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages direction is downwards. The pair is on the year lows on the daily chart. The pair is on the year lows.

Trading recommendations

The pair is still under pressure. We expect a further decline towards 103.50



AUD

General overview

The risk assets decreased against the dollar. The results of the Fed meeting, as well as the decline of oil were the key drivers for the pair.

Current situation

The pair was falling the whole Thursday. The AUD/USD decreased from the level 0.7440 to the mark 0.7384. After setting a day low the price recovered back to 0.7400. The resistance is at 0.7400, the support is at 0.7270.
MACD is in the negative area. The indicator decreased. If the histogram remains in the negative area it will show a sell signal. The indicator RSI is neutral. The attempt to break through the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) failed on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are horizontal.

Trading recommendations

If the pair gets below 0.7270 the decrease will be continued to 0.7140. We do not exclude a correction to 0.7450



GOLD

General overview

On Thursday, the gold futures rose to the highest mark since August 2014. The recent monetary decisionsof the Federal Reserve System and the Bank of Japan supported the gold metal.

Current situation

The gold futures set a new year high at the mark of 1315. After reaching the level of 1315 the quotes decreased back to 1270. The resistance is at 1315, the support is at 1280.

MACD is in a positive area, the histogram moved downwards that is a sell signal. RSI left the overbought level of 70. If the price enters the overbought area again we will see a return to the growth. The price is above Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200). The Moving Averages direction is upwards.

Trading recommendations

The Fed and BoJ decisions supported the gold. We do not see a ceiling for the gold. The metal can grow further taking into consideration the upcoming referendum in the UK. The next buyers’ targets are the marks 1315, 1330 and 1350



Brent

General overview

On Thursday, the Brent prices fell to the four-week lows. The market concerns that the Great Britain may leave the European Union pressured the appetite for the risky assets. The Brent futures fell due to the reduced concerns about the global supply disruptions.

Current situation

The oil quotations remained under pressure. The Brent broke through the supports 48.50 and 47.50 dollars per barrel, and fell to the level of 46.50. The oil set a new low at the mark of 47.06. The resistance is at 47.50, the support is at 46.50.

MACD is in the negative area, the histogram decreased, there was a sell signal from the indicator. RSI entered the oversold area again. The Brent quotes are below Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200). The MA 200 works as a resistance.

Trading recommendations

The Brent stopped near 47.20. A cut through here will aim it at the 46.50 level. If the pair consolidates above 48.50 there will be a high chance of its return to the growth



Nasdaq

General overview

The US stocks declined on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve left the interest rates unchanged. The USA regulator warned about slowing of economic growth if the Great Britain leaves the EU.

Current situation

The index decreased the part of Thursday. Nasdaq lost about 0.40% during the day. The index touched 4350 and bounced away. The Thursday trades the index ended around the mark of 4440. The resistance comes at 4440, the support is at 4350.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram grew, we received a buy signal from MACD. RSI is above the oversold area. If the line leaves the oversold area upwards we shall get a buy signal. There was a crossover on the Moving Averages (50 and 100). The 200 Moving Average direction is horizontal. The
50 and 100 Moving Averages direction is downwards. The 200 Moving Average is a resistance.

Trading recommendations

The index can recover to 4440. If Nasdaq consolidates above 4440 the price may return to a growth. If the pair manages to breakout 4350 it may decrease to 4300



S&P 500

General overview

The US Bonds market has been falling for five consecutive sessions. The Fed decision to leave its key interest rate unchanged did not support the index. Now the Fed plans a smaller number of rates hikes in 2017 and 2018 and that fact pressured SP500.

Current situation

The index continued its decrease. The index has been falling nearly a week without long stops. SP500 set a new local low at 2050. The resistance comes in at 2086, the support is at 2070.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram returned to a decrease that is a sell signal. RSI returned to the oversold area it is also a sell signal. The index left the Moving Average far above, it is another sell signal. The area 2040 – 2020 is a strong support on the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

The index may decrease further. It approached the strong support at 2030 where SP500 may bounce upwards. Shall the index break this level downwards we will see its decrease to 1980.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- technical analysis.

20.06.2016

Euro

General overview

We noticed a growth of risk appetite last Friday. However we do not believe the euro will grow. It may fall against the pound, if the UK decides to stay in the EU or if the UK decides to stay in the alliance the euro may fall in other pairs.

Current situation

The pair remained in a downside channel. Even though the pair made attempts to grow it failed to break the trend line. The indicators recommend short positions. Any growth above 1.1300 should be considered corrective. The resistance is at 1.1300, the support come in at 1.1250.

MACD is in the negative area. The indicator grew that indicated the current correction If MACD returns to a decrease there will be a sell signal. RSI is growing, it is also a buy signal. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are parallel to each other. There is a crossover on the Moving Averages. The Moving Averages direction is horizontal.

Trading recommendations

The pair is still under pressure. If the level 1.1250 is broken downwards the price will decrease to 1.1130. Alternatively we may see a growth to 1.1400



Pound

General overview

The advertising campaigns in the UK were stopped due to the Joe Cox's murder (the Member of Parliament). The demand for the dollar remained weak as the main Central Banks may conduct a joint operation to inject dollar liquidity to the market in case of Brexit.

Current situation

The pound reversed on Friday. However its recovery was stopped near the mark of 1.4400. We believe a lot of sellers are at that level and they will not let buyers to grow further. The resistance is at 1.4400, the support come in at 1.4320.

From a technical point of view, the trend is clearly bearish. The pound continued to show decreasing of highs and lows. The price is below the 200-SMA on the 4 hour chart. The 50-SMA and 100-SMA are below the price and work as support. MACD grew into the positive area that supported the current correction. If MACD returns to the negative area we will get a sell signal. RSI approached the overbought level of 70. The oscillator will show a buy signal until it stays near the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

Once the pair consolidated above the 1.4000 level we will see it growing to 1.4560. Alternatively, we expect a decrease to 1.4150. We expect a volatility growth this week before the Brexit.



Yen

General overview

The lack of new steps in the monetary policy softening by the Bank of Japan supported the demand for the yen.

Current situation

The pair remained in a downside channel. The dollar is under pressure. The new local low is at 103.96. The resistance is at 104.50, the support is at 103.50.

MACD decreased, there was a sell signal from the indicator. RSI is in the oversold area. If RSI remains in the oversold area we will get another sell signal. The pair USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving downwards.

Trading recommendations

The pair is still under pressure. We expect its further decline towards 103.50



NZD/USD

General overview

The pair NZD / USD found a support due to an increase in risk appetite. The pair NZD / USD was in the flat on Friday after testing the previous high at 0.7150.

Current situation

The pair was in a flat on Friday. The NZD/USD remained between 0.7030 and 0.7070. The pair is under pressure. The resistance is at 0.7050, the support is at 0.6950.

MACD is in the positive area, it is close to the centerline. The indicator decreased. If the histogram returns into the negative area it will show a sell signal. The indicator RSI is neutral. The NZD/USD is above the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving upwards. The 50-SMA is a support where the pair can pivot upwards.

Trading recommendations

The overall outlook remained bullish. However the pair NZD/USD is overbought. If it consolidates below 0.7050 the decrease will be continued to 0.6950-0.6900.



GOLD

General overview

On Friday, the gold prices fell as traders took profits after the jump of the pair to 23-month high on Thursday.

Current situation

The overall outlook remained bullish despite the resent correction down. The other day the gold futures fell from a new year high at the mark of 1315. We consider this increase corrective. The pair grew and was able to return some recent losses. The resistance is at 1300, the support is at 1280.

MACD is in a positive area, the histogram turned upwards. RSI returned to the overbought level of 70. If the price enters the overbought area again we will see a return to the growth. The price is above Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200). The Moving Averages direction is upwards.

Trading recommendations

If we see further attempts to break the support 1280 the chances for a correction will grow. Meanwhile the pair may recover to 1315



Brent

General overviewT

he US dollar weakened after the recent macroeconomic reports from the USA. A weak dollar supported the oil market, as it made the oil cheaper for owners of foreign currencies.

Current situation

The oil quotations kept growing. The Brent was able to recover by 0.26%. The oil price broke the levels 4700 and 4750. The Brent touched the level of 48.00 by the end of trades. The resistance is at 48.50, the support is at 48.00.

MACD is in the negative area. However the histogram was growing that confirmed the current growth. RSI approached the overbought level of 70. If RSI gets into the overbought area we will get a buy signal The Brent broke the 200-SMA and approached the 50-SMA and 100-SMA. If the oil consolidates above the 50-SMA and 100-SMA the buyers will become stronger.

Trading recommendations
The break below 48.50 might force the pair to resume its downward trajectory and drift to 46.50. An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 49.50.



DAX30

General overview

The major stock indexes rose in the European session and spent Friday in the "green zone", reducing weekly drop. The index DAX30 grew amid easing concerns about a potential exit of Great Britain from the European Union (Brexit).

Current situation

The index was recovering the whole Friday. DAX gained 0.85% by the end of trades. The resistance comes at 9760, the support is at 9550.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram grew, we received a buy signal from MACD. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards.

Trading recommendations
The index can recover further to 9760. If DAX consolidates above 9760 it may grow to 1000



S&P 500

General overview

The US indices started trading on Friday below zero, in particular S&P 500 started with -0.13%. The minor changes before the opening of the US stock markets were due to the uncertainty around the possible results of the British referendum which will take place on 23 June.

Current situation

The index stopped falling and reversed. The SP500 recovered from 2050 and reached the mark 2083. The growth was stopped and the index slightly fell. The resistance comes in at 2086, the support is at 2070.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram returned to a growth that coincided with the current growth. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal. The index broke the 200-SMA and remained on it. The 50-SMA and 100-SMA are above the price.

Trading recommendations

The index may growth further. The next target for this pair is the resistance of 2086. Shall the index break the level 2055 downwards we will see it decreasing to 2040

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- technical analysis.

21.06.2016

Euro

General overview

No important news were published on Monday and only Neel Kashkari's speech (the Fed representative) was the focus of our attention.

Current situation

The Monday trades started with a growth. The pair grew to the upper boundary of the descending channel. The indicators recommend short positions. The resistance is at 1.1370, the support come in at 1.1300.

MACD is in the positive area. The indicator grew that indicated the current growth. If MACD returns to a decrease there will be a sell signal. RSI is close to the overbought area. The growth into overbought area will give us a buy signal. The decrease of the signal line will give us a sell signal. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are parallel to each other. The Moving Averages direction is horizontal.

Trading recommendations

The pair is still under pressure. The bulls’ attempt to change the market failed. If the level 1.1250 is broken downwards the price will decrease to 1.1130. Alternatively we may see a growth to 1.1450 – 1.1500.



Pound

General overview

On Monday, the pound strengthened against other major currencies when fears that the UK may leave the European Union weakened. The latest poll results revealed that the number of Britons who prefer to stay in the EU is more than the number of those who want to leave it.

Current situation

The pound reversed last week and continued growing this week as well. The pair set a new local high at the mark of 1.4700. According to the daily chart the resistance 1.4670 is a strong level where the price reverses several times. The resistance is at 1.4670, the support come in at 1.4560. The pound grew to the upper boundary of the descending channel. The price is above the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are turning upwards.

MACD grew into the positive area that supported the current correction. If MACD stays in the positive area the growth will be continued. RSI is in the overbought level of 70. The oscillator will show a buy signal until it stays in the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

The resistance 1.4670 limits the growth of the pair. This is a strong level which the pair could not break since February, 2016. If the pair breaks the level the growth will be continued. Otherwise we will see a return below 1.4400



Yen

General overview
The dollar rose against the yen, retreating from an almost two-year low reached last Thursday when theBank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged. Investors hoped that the Bank would implement additional stimulus.

Current situation

The pair remained in a downside channel. The dollar is still under pressure. The pair set new local low at 104.00. The resistance is at 104.50, the support is at 103.50.

MACD grew, there was a sell signal from the indicator. RSI is close to the oversold area. If RSI gets into the oversold area we will get a sell signal. The pair USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving downwards.

Trading recommendations
The pair is still under pressure. We expect its further decline towards 103.50. Alternatively we shall see a growth to 106.00



USD/CAD

General overview

The inflation in Canada is lower than expected according to Friday release.

Current situation
The pair is under pressure. The USD/CAD decreased and set a new low at the mark of 1.2770. The resistance is at 1.2900, the support is at 1.2800.

MACD moved into the negative area. The signal line is above the histogram. If the histogram remains in the negative area it will show a sell signal. The indicator RSI is close to the oversold area. The USD/CAD is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving downwards.

Trading recommendations

The pair USD/CAD is oversold. If it consolidates below 1.2800 the decrease will be continued to 1.2680. If the pair manages a break above 1.2900 and stays there we would likely be buying to 1.3100



GOLD

General overview

Demand for safe assets decreased, the gold futures got under pressure. The price moved away from a 22-month high last week. The improved market sentiment also contributed to the strengthening of the dollar.

Current situation

The overall outlook remained bullish despite the resent correction. The pair spent near the level of 1280 the first day of the week. All attempts to break the level had failed. The resistance is at 1300, the support is at 1280.

MACD is in a positive area, the histogram decreased. RSI left the overbought level of 70. If the price returns to the overbought area we will get a buy signal. The price is above Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200). The Moving Averages direction is upwards.

Trading recommendations

If we see further attempts to break the support 1280 the chances for a correction will grow. Meanwhile the pair may recover to 1315



Brent

General overview

The oil quotes rose on Monday when fears that Britain would leave the European Union decreased. The weak dollar also supported the Brent quotes.

Current situation

The oil quotations kept growing. The price left the descending channel. The Brent was able to recover to 50.50. The resistance is at 50.50, the support is at 49.50.

MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew that confirmed the current growth. RSI approached the overbought level of 70. If RSI gets into the overbought area we will get a buy signal. The Brent broke all Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200). If the oil consolidates above all Moving Averages the buyers will become stronger.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued. The level 50.50 limits the growth of the Brent. A break above this mark risks a growth back towards the resistance at 51.50.



DAX30

General overview

The major stock indexes rose in the European session and spent Friday in the "green zone", reducing weekly drop. The index DAX30 grew amid easing concerns about a potential exit of Great Britain from the European Union (Brexit).

Current situation

The index was recovering the whole Friday. DAX gained 0.85% by the end of trades. The resistance comes at 9760, the support is at 9550.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram grew, we received a buy signal from MACD. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards.

Trading recommendations

The index can recover further to 9760. If DAX consolidates above 9760 it may grow to 1000



S&P 500

General overview

On Monday, the US index futures showed a sharp rise, as fears that the UK will vote for the exit from the European Union decreased.

Current situation

The index stopped falling and reversed. The SP500 recovered from 2050 and reached the mark 2083. The growth was stopped and the index slightly fell. The resistance comes in at 2086, the support is at 2070.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram returned to a growth that coincided with the current growth. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal. The index broke the 200-SMA and remained on it. The 50-SMA and 100-SMA are above the price.

Trading recommendations

The index may growth further. The next target for this pair is the resistance of 2086. Shall the index break the level 2055 downwards we will see it decreasing to 2040.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- technical analysis.

22.06.2016

Euro

General overview

Economic sentiment release supported the euro on Tuesday. Yesterday Draghi and Yellen gave their speeches. According to Draghi the inflation is moderate in the Eurozone. Yellen said that the rates would remain at the current low levels a long period of time. According to Yellen the USA economy showed a strong growing of the GDP.

Current situation

The Tuesday trades started with a decrease. The pair was falling the whole day. The euro broke the level of 1.1300 and tested the level of 1.1250. The EUR/USD remained in the descending channel. The indicators recommend short positions. The resistance is at 1.1300, the support comes in at 1.1250.

MACD is in the positive area. The indicator decreased that indicated the current fall of the pair. If MACD gets into the negative area there will be a sell signal. RSI decreased and approached the oversold area.

The decrease of the signal line gives us a sell signal. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are parallel to each other. The Moving Averages direction is horizontal. The price stopped at the MA.

Trading recommendations

Bears returned to the market. As we expected the price was not able to grow above 1.1370. We expect the decrease to be continued now. We will sell if the pair consolidates below the level of 1.1250



Pound

General overview

The pound received support from the latest poll which had showed the growth of Britons who wanted to stay in the EU. The pair set a fresh seven-week high against the dollar. Public Sector Net Borrowing also supported the national currency.

Current situation

The pound reversed yesterday from the seven-week high when investors began closing long positions. The pair fell from the level 1.4760 to the next support at 1.4670. The price ended the trades in the area 1.4620. The resistance is at 1.4670, the support come in at 1.4560. The price is above the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages direction is upwards.

All indicators are overbought. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram decreased that supported the current drop. If MACD decreases further the pair will fall further. RSI left the overbought level of 70. The oscillator will show a sell signal until it stays below the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

As we predicted the resistance 1.4670 did not let the pair to grow. This is a strong level which the pair could not break since February, 2016. The first target is 1.4560. We believe that the break below 1.4560 should send this market looking for the 1.4400 level.



Yen

General overview

The yen fell against the US dollar after a significant strengthening the other day. The Yellen’s speech supported the dollar yesterday. Besides, the decrease of the risk appetite lowered the demand for the "safe haven" assets when fears that the UK may leave the European Union stepped away.

Current situation

The USD/JPY remained in a downside channel. We see a technical correction right now. The dollar was growing yesterday and returned some of its previous losses. The resistance is at 105.30, the support is at 104.50.

MACD grew, there was a buy signal from the indicator. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal. The pair USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving downwards that is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations
We believe the pair will recover to the area of 105.70 – 106.00. Alternatively it will decrease to 103.50



AUD/USD

General overview

The Australian dollar strengthened when the Reserve Bank of Australia published its last meeting minutes. The regulator left the rates unchanged. According to the Central Bank the main reasons to keep the rates unchanged were: a positive economic data, a significant weakening of the national currency, as well as the rise in house prices and a positive wage prospects.

Current situation

The pair deprived from the three weeks high. The AUD/USD decreased from the mark of 0.7510 and stopped at 0.7458. The price is below a strong resistance where it has bounced downwards lately. The resistance is at 0.7500, the support is at 0.7400.

MACD is in the positive area. The indicator shows a divergence. The MACD indicator is giving a sell signal. The indicator RSI moved from the overbought area. The oscillator will show a sell signal until it stays below the overbought area. The pair is above the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour
chart. The Moving Averages are moving upwards.

Trading recommendations

The pair is overbought. If the AUD/USD falls below 0.7400 the decrease will be continued to 0.7270.



GOLD

General overview

The gold futures continued to lose their value preparing for the long-awaited referendum in the UK.

Current situation

The pair started a correction. The instrument moved from 1293 and reached 1263 later the day. The resistance is at 1280, the support is at 1260.

MACD moved into the negative area. If the histogram remains in the negative area the decline will be continued. RSI approached the oversold area. If the price gets into the area the decrease will be continued.

The price broke the 50-SMA and stopped at 100-SMA. The Moving Averages are reversing.

Trading recommendations

The indicators suggest the sell positions. The break below 1270 would open the way to 1260 and 1250. The gold may pullback to 1280 to continue falling from it.



Brent

General overview

Weekly Crude Oil Stock in the USA showed -1,900M. According to Secretary General of OPEC the volume of the oil production is growing in Nigeria.

Current situation

The oil quotations returned to a growth. The price has been growing three days in a line. The Brent left the descending channel far behind. The resistance is at 50.50, the support is at 49.50.

MACD moved into the positive area. The histogram grew that confirmed the current growth of the quotes. RSI approached the overbought level of 70. If RSI gets into the overbought area we will get a buy signal. The Brent broke all Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200). If the oil consolidates above them the buyers will become stronger.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued. The level 50.50 limits the growth of the Brent. A break above this mark risks a growth towards the resistance at 51.50.



DAX

General overview

The European Bonds Markets showed mixed trades on Tuesday. The investors are nervousness the day before the referendum in the UK.

Current situation

The DAX index continued its recovery and was able to break the resistance 1000. The quotes ended the day at 10070. The resistance comes at 10175, the support is at 1000.

MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew, we received a buy signal from MACD. RSI approached the overbought area. If the oscillator bounces back that will be a sell signal. If RSI enters the overbought area we will get a buy signal. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are below the price. The 100-SMA and 200-SMA work as a support.

Trading recommendations

If DAX30 fixates above 10100 the index may grow to 10175. Otherwise the price will drop to 1000



SP 500

General overview

The US stocks slightly rise on Tuesday after the Janet Yellen's speech. Janet Yellen spoke about the state of the US economy. The shares of the energy sector rose by 0.9% amid the oil prices growth (2.9%). Marathon Oil shares rose by 10% when the company announced its plans to acquire PayRock Energy Holdings for 888 million dollars.

Current situation

The index remained in a range between 2086 and 2073. The index showed a mixed dynamics during the day. The SP500 fell to the bottom of the side channel where it turned up and grew to the nearest resistance. The resistance comes in at 2086, the support is at 2070.

MACD is on the centerline. The indicator does not give a clear signal. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal. The index stuck between the 200-SMA (support) and the 50-SMA (resistance). The 100-SMA is above the price.

Trading recommendations

The index may growth further. The levels 2086 and 2100 are still our targets. Shall the index break the
level 2070 downwards we will see it decreasing to 2055



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

23.06.2016

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The weak Nonfarm Payrolls can postpone the Fed rate hike.

Current situation

The pair grew last Friday. The EUR/USD broke the levels of 1.1200, 1.1250, 1.1300 and approached the mark of 1.3730. The pair looks bullish. The resistance is at 1.1200, the support is at 1.1130.

MACD is in a positive area, the signal line is in a histogram. MACD is growing, its signal is bullish. RSI reached the overbought level of 70.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1130 soon. The next target will be le level of 1.1070.

Image

Pound

General overview

The published Services PMI for May in the UK did not effect the pound. Still the pair grew after the weak Nonfarm Payrolls in the USA.

Current situation

The pair grew from the support of 1.4400. The pair broke the resistance 1.4480. The buyers could test the mark of 1.4560. Still the growing impulse faded out and the pair returned below the level. The resistance is at the level of 1.4480, the support is at 1.4400.

MACD is in a negative area. The histogram is above the signal line. The indicator MACD is giving a buy signal.
RSI approached the overbought level of 70.

Trading recommendations

We expect the flat will be continued.

Image

Yen

General overview

Japanese currency finished last week in a green zone due to renewed discussions regarding differences among the US and Japanese monetary policies.

Current situation

The interest to the yen grew after a weak Non-Farms report. The pair fell and broke the levels 108.20 and 107.40. The resistance is at the level of 109.00, the support is at 108.20.

MACD is in a negative area. The histogram is above in the signal line. MACD kept decreasing. The indicator is showing a sell signal. The indicator RSI is below 30 and is oversold.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the flat will be continued. We do not exclude the growth to 109.00.

Image


*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

Image

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

24.06.2016

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

PMI Composite from Markit in the Eurozone came out worse than expected. However the euro ignored the news, the referendum in the UK was in the spotlight the whole day. The weakening of the dollar pushed the European currency upwards.

Current situation

The pair showed a mix dynamics yesterday still the growth was its main tendency. The quotes grew during the Asian and the European sessions and slightly fell at the American one. The EUR/USD pair is at the upper boundary of the descending channel. The resistance is at 1.1370, the support lies in at 1.1300.

MACD grew during the day. The indicator is in the positive area. If the indicator remains in the positive area its signal will be bullish. RSI is close to the overbought level. If RSI enters the overbought area that will be a buy signal. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are parallel to each other. The SMAs direction is horizontal. The price is above the Moving Averages.

Trading recommendations

If the market preserves a growth sentiment the euro will keep growing. The pair EUR/USD is close to the strong resistance and it might bounce downwards. If the instrument grows it will reach the level 1.1450. Otherwise it will decrease to 1.1250.



Pound

General overview

The British currency rose on Thursday after receiving preliminary information regarding the referendum. The number of EU supporters was bigger than the number of their opponents. That news supported the pound. The referendum results will be announced on Friday morning.

Current situation

The pound received some support from the news flow and scientifically grew. The pair grew by 0.80%. The instrument set a new high at the mark of 1.4947. The resistance is at 1.5000, the support comes in at 1.4900.

The price is above the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages direction is upwards.

All indicators remained overbought. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew. If MACD decreases the pair will correct downwards. If the indicator remains in the positive area the growth will be continued. The MACD shows signs of the divergence. RSI remained below the overbought level of 70. The oscillator will show a sell signal until it stays below the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

The pair is going upwards. The bulls’ target is the level 1.5000. If the price falls it will get to the level of 1.4400.



Yen

General overview

The dollar declined across the market. The growth of risks due to Brexit made the yen attractive as a reserve currency.

Current situation

The USD/JPY grew and ended the trades at the upper boundary of the downside channel. The new local high is at the level 106.00. The resistance is at 106.00, the support is at 105.30.

MACD grew into the positive area. If the indicator remains in the positive area the growth will be continued. RSI also grew and approached the overbought level. If oscillator decreases the instrument will correct downwards. The USD/JPY grew though the 50-SMA on the 4 hour chart. The 100-SMA stopped the growth of the pair.

Trading recommendations

The yen may continue the upward movement in the short term. Its potential target is 106.50. Still the pair stopped at the pretty strong level 106.00. The pair has recently fallen from it. That’s why we do not exclude the sell scenario.



AUD/USD

General overview

On Thursday, the American dollar fell against all major currency pairs. The referendum in the UK was the focus of our attention. The Australian dollar was supported by the weakness of its American counterpart and rose to a nine-month high.

Current situation

The instrument was able to set a new local high at the point of 0.7600. The overall outlook remained bullish. The resistance is at 0.7600, the support is at 0.7500.

MACD is in the positive area. The indicator grew that is a sell signal. The indicator RSI bounced from the oversold area. If RSI got into the overbought area that is a buy signal. The oscillator will show a buy signal until it stays above the overbought area. The pair is above the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages direction is upwards.

Trading recommendations

The pair is overbought. Nevertheless it can continue its growth. The buyers’ next target is the mark 0.7650.



GOLD

General overview

The precious metal was trading near the two-week lows. The instrument took a wait and see position until the end of the referendum in the UK.

Current situation

The pair remained at the recently reached level staying in a flat. The XAU/USD spent the day between the marks of 1260 and 1270. The resistance is at 1280, the support is at 1260.

MACD decreased in the negative area. The histogram remained at the same place. If the histogram remains in the negative area the decline of the price will be continued. RSI approached the oversold area. If the price gets into the oversold area the decrease will be continued. The price broke the 50-SMA and stopped at 100-SMA. The Moving Averages direction is horizontal.

Trading recommendations

The price can grow to the resistance level of 1280. We do not exclude the falls to 1260.



Brent

General overview

The Brent crude oil prices rose on Thursday. Investors were cautious due to the referendum in Britain. The oil futures recovered from the deepest drop to the 13 year lows. The decline in production of shale oil in the USA supported the instrument.

Current situation

The oil quotations strengthened yesterday. The quotes were able to grow and almost reached the previously set highs. The resistance is at 50.50, the support is at 49.50.

MACD remained in the positive area. The histogram grew that confirmed the current growth of the quotes. MACD shows a divergence signs. RSI remained near the overbought level. If RSI declined that will be a sell signal. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are below the price.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 50.50 for a steady growth. The way to the marks 51.50 and 52.50 will be opened after this breakthrough. If the price falls it will get to 49.50 and 48.50.



DAX

General overview

The European stock market opened with a growth on Thursday. Investors kept a positive sentiment during the long-awaited referendum in the UK. The German DAX 30 rose by 1.85% over Thursday.

Current situation

The DAX30 was positive yesterday. The index strengthened and was able to set a new high at 10332. The market is bullish. The resistance comes at 10350, the support is at 10175.

MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew, that was a buy signal. If the histogram grows we will get a buy signal. RSI moved into the overbought area. If the oscillator remains in the area that will be a buy signal. The price is above the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200). The Moving Averages direction is upwards.

Trading recommendations

If the positive sentiment preserves the index will grow to 10350. We do not exclude a correction back to 10250.



S&P 500

General overview

The US Bonds Market was under expectations of the latest events in the UK. Despite the positive sentiment regarding the referendum, the contradiction of the recent polls made the markets more cautious. The energy Sector in S&P500 fell by 0,6%. The share of the health sector grew by 6.78 at the same time.

Current situation

The instrument grew and set a new local high at 2101. However SP500 was not able to remain there and decreased back below the mark 2100. The resistance comes in at 2100, the support is at 2086.

MACD moved into the positive area. The indicator grew that is a buy signal. RSI also grew and approached the overbought level. If the signal line remains at the same place the growth will be continued. If it decreased the instrument will fall. The index is above all Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200). The 100-SMA works as a support for the price.

Trading recommendations

A break above the mark 2100 risks a growth towards 2110. If the price cannot remain at the current levels and decreases the price will move down to 2086.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

27.06.2016

Euro

General overview

The UK decision to leave the EU led to a collapse of the world markets. As a result they fell to the record historical levels. Now the European Union is ready to negotiate with London about its exit, but until then, the UK remains a member of the Union. The EU hopes to maintain a partnership with Britain after its exit.

Current situation

The pair showed a negative dynamics right after the referendum results publication. The EUR/USD fell to the historical lows, from 1.1370 to 1.0900 and lost about 500 pp. Now the euro is under pressure and the dollar is gaining popularity. The resistance is at 1.1200, the support lies in at 1.1130.

MACD moved into the negative area. If the indicator remains there that will be a sell signal. RSI is close to the undervalued area. If RSI enters the area that will be a sell signal. In the scenario where the oscillator grows we will get a buy signal.

The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are parallel to each other. However the 50-SMA broke the two others and is moving downwards. If the current situation preserves that will be a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The trend is clearly bearish for now. We presume that the next bearish target lies at 1.0900. Still as the marker is undervalued we do not exclude a recovery back above 1.1200.



Pound

General overview

The collapse of the pound that we saw last Friday was just the beginning of the hard times for the UK economy and we shall see other after-effects soon. The 10-year British bonds yield have already decreased and have fallen to the historical lows. The credit rating of the UK (AAA) has all chances to be revised downwards in the near future.

Current situation

The pound was hurt most of all by the London decision to leave the EU. The pair fell by 10% within hours. That has been the biggest drop in the resent history. The instrument is at the lows now where it was in 80s. The resistance is at 1.3950, the support comes in at 1.3700.

The price is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages formed a cross-over and are moving downwards that is a sell signal. The indicators are undervalued now. MACD is in the negative area and its histogram decreased that is a sell signal. If MACD decreases again the pair will move downwards. RSI fell to the oversold level of 70. The oscillator will show a sell signal until it stays close to the undervalued area.

Trading recommendations

If price breaks above 1.4320, then this could lead to renewed buying momentum, possibly towards 1.5000. However we do not believe in this scenario much. We assume the instrument will remain under pressure. In the potential scenario, the next stop for the GBP/USD could well be around 1.3300.



Yen

General overview

The Bank of Japan can start an intervention in the medium term due to the increased market volatility and uncertainty in the world economy. Now markets began preparing for the bustling times when the interest to risk will be minimal and the "safe haven" assets will be in demand.

Current situation

The USD/JPY remained under pressure; the latest events in the Europe were not able to change its main trend. As many pairs the instrument decreased and returned to the region 102.50. The pair formed a new lower low at 99.00. The resistance is at 102.50, the support exists at 101.40.

MACD moved into the negative area. If the indicator remains in the undervalued area the decrease will be continued. RSI is close to the oversold level. If the oscillator decreases or remains at the current levels that will be a sell signal. The USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) which are moving downwards.

Trading recommendations

There are no major events on the schedule and we will consider selling the pair to 100.00. The mark 104.50 limits the growth of the USD/JPY if price breaks above this region the growth may be continued to the resistance area 106.00.



NZD

General overview

The New Zealand dollar was pretty volatile last Friday. The reason for that was the same theme as everywhere – Brexit. The NZD was under pressure due to the risk aversion.

Current situation

The instrument fell at the Asian session on Friday. However the kiwi was able to recover and returned almost all its losses later the day. The market tone is still positive and the current rebound below 0.7150 should be considered corrective. The resistance exists at 0.7150, the support lies at 0.7050.

Even though MACD decreased it remained in the positive area. We consider that is a buy signal. The indicator RSI bounced from the oversold area and shows a buy signal. The pair is above the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages direction is neutral.

Trading recommendations

The pair is overbought. The buyers’ next target is the mark 0.7250. If NZD decreases it will drop to 0.6850.



GOLD

General overview

We guess the gold was the only instrument in the market that won out from the Brexit. The investors turned to the gold as to a safe asset; the gold futures rose by 8% to the 2-year highs.

Current situation

The gold remained in the growing channel. The quotes set a new high at 1360. The resistance is at 1330, the support is at 1300.

MACD is moving upwards in the positive area. We receive the buy signal from the indicator. If the histogram remains in the positive area the growth will be continued. RSI approached the overbought area. If the signal line gets into the area the growth will be continued. The price is above the Moving Averages and their direction is upwards.

Trading recommendations

The price can grow to the resistance level of 1330 and further to 1360. We do not exclude a correction to 1270.



Brent

General overview

As expected, the decision of London to leave the European Union made the oil futures drop. The crude oil Brent decreased as investors decided not to take risks and took their funds away from risky assets.

Current situation

The oil quotations decreased and lost about 6% on Friday. However the situation seems to have stabilized and the oil futures found a support at 47.50. The Brent recovered by the end of traders and ended the week at the mark 48.50. The resistance is at 48.50, the support is at 47.50.

MACD moved into the negative area. The histogram decreased that is a sell signal. RSI is near the oversold level. If RSI declined that will be a sell signal. Shall it bounce upwards and the futures will recover. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are above the price.

Trading recommendations

Oil prices are currently under pressure due to a variety of factors. The dollar strengthened, the market is still overvalued, and there are signs of renewal in the US shale oil production. The Brent can drop further but not too far. We believe the instrument will find a bottom at 45.00. If the pair breaks the level 49.50 upwards that will be a buy signal.



NASDAQ

General overview

When the UK published the first results of the referendum the US stock indices fell by 4-5%. The exit from the alliance is a strong blow to the euro area economy as the UK was the second GDP in the region.

Current situation

The Nasdaq was negative on Friday. All its attempts to recover met a resistance at 4350. The resistance comes at 4300, the support is at 4250.

MACD is in the negative area; its histogram decreased. If the histogram remains in the negative area we will get a sell signal. RSI approached the oversold area. If the oscillator remains in the area that will be a sell signal. The 50-SMA broke the 200-day moving average downwards. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) direction is downwards.

Trading recommendations

If the negative sentiment preserves the index will decrease to 4250 and further to 4200.



S&P 500

General overview

London decision to leave the EU crippled world markets. The US Futures in the US S&P 500 index fell by 3.60% on the news. The US stock market closed trading on Friday by a drop due to the negative dynamics from the part of the finance, raw materials and technologies sectors.

Current situation

The instrument got under pressure and decreased at the Asian session on Friday. S&P 500 recovered some losses during the day. However when American traders came to the market sales resumed. The resistance comes in at 2025, the support lies at 2012.

MACD moved into the negative area. The indicator decreased that is a sell signal. RSI is near the oversold level. If RSI declined that will be a sell signal. Shall it bounce upwards and the index will recover. The 50-SMA broke the 200-day moving average downwards. The Moving Averages direction is downwards.

Trading recommendations

We assume the downward movement will be continued as the bearish sentiment prevails. The marks 2012 and 2000 are the sellers’ targets.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

28.06.2016

Euro

General overview

The euro is under pressure against the dollar due to fears that the Brexit will worsen the prospects for the EU and the euro area economy.

Current situation

The pair showed a mixed dynamics yesterday. The euro made several attempts to recover, still the sellers did not let it to grow. The instrument remained at the same level, near the mark 1.1000. The resistance is at 1.1130, the support lies in at 1.1000.

MACD remained in the negative area. If the indicator remains in there that will be a sell signal. RSI is close to the undervalued area. If RSI enters the area, that will be a sell signal. In the scenario where the oscillator grows we will get a buy signal. The price is below the Moving Averages. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards, that is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The EUR/USD is still under pressure. We believe it will fall further and will reach the local low at 1.0900. The pair may grow only to fall from the higher levels.



Pound

General overview

The pound got under pressure again when George Osborne (the Finance Minister) said that the results of the referendum will prolong the further volatility in the financial markets. According to George Osborne the economy of the country is ready to leave the EU and it will successfully cope with its consequences.

Current situation

The pair decreased and was able to set new historical low at 1.3118. The resistance is at 1.3300, the support comes in at 1.3100.
MACD is in the negative area and its histogram decreased that is a sell signal. If MACD remains at the same levels the pair will move downwards. RSI fell to the oversold level of 30. The oscillator will show a sell signal until it stays close to the undervalued area. The price is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving downwards, that is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

We presume that the pair has no chances to recover soon. The Brexit will pressure the pair further. We do not exclude some pull backs that we expect to be weak and short-lived. The sellers’ next target is 1.3100 and 1.3000. The GBP/USD may grow towards 1.3700.



Yen

General overview

After the British referendum Shinzo Abe (the Japanese Prime Minister ) requested from Taro Aso (the Finance Minister) to monitor the currency market and to take action if necessary.

Current situation

The USD/JPY remained under pressure. The market seems fairly balanced; the instrument almost did not move and remained at the same place. The resistance is at 102.50, the support exists at 101.40.
MACD is in the negative area. If the indicator remains in the undervalued area the pair will decrease. RSI is close to the oversold level. If the oscillator decreases or remains at the current levels that will be a sell signal. If RSI growth, that will be a buy signal for us. The USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) which are moving downwards.

Trading recommendations

There are no major events on the schedule that could significantly move the pair. We expect markets to stay fairly neutral and the USD/JPY probably will remain in the same region between 101.40 and 102.50.



NZD

General overview

The markets ignored the growth of trade surplus in New Zealand in May. Meanwhile, the US dollar continued to strengthen after the referendum in Britain.

Current situation

The trend is objectively bearish and the instrument is undervalued. The NZD/USD was falling the whole Monday and reached the local low that was set last Friday. The resistance exists at 0.7050, the support lies at 0.6950.
MACD is in the negative area. If the indicator remains in the undervalued area the pair will decrease. RSI is close to the oversold level. If the oscillator decreases or remains at the current levels that will be a sell signal. If RSI growth, that will be a buy signal for us. The NZD broke 50 and 100 day moving averages and is approaching 200-day moving average. The 50-SMA and 100-SMA are turning down, the 200-SMA is still moving upwards.

Trading recommendations

The sellers’ next target is the mark 0.6950. If NZD grows it will grow to 0.7050.



GOLD

General overview

The gold again approached the two-year highs. The quotes grew after the UK unexpected decision to leave the UK. The metal is in demand as the news made investors seek for safe assets.

Current situation

The gold remained in the growing channel. As usual Monday was poor with news and there were no drivers that could move the pair. The gold futures showed a mixed dynamics still all trades were low volatile and the pair remained below 1330 dollars per ounce. The resistance is at 1330, the support is at 1300.
MACD is in the positive area. We receive the buy signal from the indicator. If the histogram remains in the positive area the growth will be continued. RSI approached the overbought area. If the signal line gets into the area the growth will be continued. In the scenario where the oscillator falls we will get a sell signal. The price is above the Moving Averages and their direction is upwards.

Trading recommendations

The price can grow to the resistance level of 1330 and further to 1360 dollars per ounce. We do not exclude a correction to 1270.



Brent

General overview

The crude oil futures marked the first day of the new week with a decline. However, some analysts believe that Brexit impact on the global fuel demand is very limited.

Current situation

The oil quotations tried to recover yesterday still buyers met the sellers’ resistance at 48.90. That mark became a pivot point and the price fell. The resistance is at 47.50, the support is at 46.50.
MACD is in the negative area. The histogram decreased that is a sell signal. RSI is near the oversold level. If RSI declined that will be a sell signal. Shall RSI bounce upwards and the Brent futures will recover. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are above the price. The Moving Averages are turning down.

Trading recommendations

In this potential scenario, the next stop for the Brent could well be around 46.50. If price breaks above 48.50 and consolidates above this level, then this could lead to renewed buying momentum, possibly towards 50.00 – 50.50 region.



DAX

General overview

The European stock indices continued to fall. The decline was caused by the uncertainty that came after the London decision to leave the EU.

Current situation

The DAX30 was bearish on Monday. However we believe that the current drop should be considered corrective. The Eurozone Bonds Market will recover from the current shock and will grow. The index reached a strong technical level 9265. DAX is fairly oversold and it may grow soon. The resistance comes at 9400, the support exists at 9250.
MACD is in the negative area; its histogram decreased. If the histogram remains in the negative area we will get a sell signal. RSI approached the oversold area. If the oscillator remains in the area, that will be a sell signal. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) direction is downwards and that is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

If the negative sentiment preserves the index will decrease to 9050.



S&P 500

General overview

The US stock indices were under pressure due to the financial sector shares decrease. The S&P decreased as the markets do not see future prospects of London as a European financial center.

Current situation

The overall outlook remained bearish. The index set a new local low at 1985. The resistance comes in at 2000, the support lies at 1985.
MACD is in the negative area. The indicator decreased that is a sell signal. RSI is near the oversold level. If RSI declined that will be a sell signal. Shall it bounce upwards and the index will recover. The 50-SMA broke the 200-day moving average downwards. The Moving Averages direction is downwards.

Trading recommendations

We assume the downward movement will be continued as the bearish sentiment prevails. The marks 1985 and 1970 are the sellers’ targets.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

29.06.2016

Euro

General overview

The euro remained under pressure as uncertainty regarding the Brexit continued to cloud the prospects of the whole EU. Yesterday Mario Draghi (the ECB President) gave his speech. There were not anything specific about the current monetary policy. However, Mario Draghi noted that the Central Banks should better coordinate the monetary policies of their countries to cope with the deflationary pressure.

Current situation

The course of the pair tried to stabilize yesterday. The instrument grew and set a new local high at 1.1111. Technically, the EUR/USD remained in a narrow downward trending channel. The resistance stands at 1.1130, the support lies in at 1.1000.

MACD remained in the negative area, its histogram grew yesterday. The indicator will give sell signals until it leaves the negative area. RSI is close to the undervalued area. If RSI enters the area, that will be a sell signal. In the scenario where the oscillator grows we will get a buy signal. The price is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) which are moving downwards, that is a sell signal. The 200-day moving average is a strong resistance for the euro.

Trading recommendations

The pair may continue its growth. If the EUR/USD consolidates over 1.1130 the growth maybe continued to 1.1200. The nearest sellers’ targets are the support levels 1.1000 and 1.0900.



Pound

General overview

Yesterday the pound rose against the US dollar for the first time after the referendum, as investors’ confidence began growing.

Current situation

The pound tried to recover yesterday. However, its growth was weak and the pair did not succeed much with it. The pound was able to grow to 1.3425. The resistance is at 1.3500, the support comes in at 1.3300.

MACD is in the negative area; its histogram grew that weakened the sell signal. If MACD decreases the pair will move downwards. RSI remained close to the oversold level. The oscillator will show a sell signal until it stays close to the area. The price is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving downwards, that is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The GBP/USD may still slightly recover. If it grows the pair will aim to close the gap at 1.3700. A downtrend will start as soon as the pair drops below the support level 1.3300, which will be followed by moving down to the support levels 1.3100 and 1.3000.



Yen

General overview

Even though the USD/JPY remained under pressure it recovered yesterday. The demand for the safe assets decreased that let to the USD/JPY growth. At the same time, the stronger the pair falls, the higher is probability that the BoJ will interfere. The regulator has already promised in June to use an intervention in case of Brexit.

Current situation

The USD/JPY remained under pressure. However the pair formed a consolidation yesterday. The USD recovered and reached the mark 102.80. The resistance is at 103.50, the support stands at 102.50.

The indicators moved away from extremum. MACD remained in the negative area, still its histogram grew, that weakened the sell signal. If the indicator remains in the undervalued area the pair will decrease further. RSI is in the neutral area. If the oscillator decreases that will be a sell signal. If RSI growth, that will be a buy signal for us. The USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) which are moving downwards. The 50-day moving is the closest resistance for the instrument.

Trading recommendations

If the USD/JPY does not get new drivers it will remain between 103.50- 101.40.



AUD

General overview

On Tuesday, the dollar fell against other major currencies when the fears regarding British exit from the European Union began weakening and investors returned to the risky assets, such as the AUD/USD.

Current situation

The pair made an attempt to recover and reached the level 0.7400. The mark 0.74000 became the pivot point where the price returned to a decrease. The resistance exists at 0.7400, the support lies at 0.7270.

MACD is in the negative area, its histogram dropped. If the indicator decreases again the pair will fall further. RSI is close to the oversold level. If the oscillator moves south that will be a sell signal. The 50- moving average was the resistance that did not let the pair to grow. The pair bounced below 50, 100 and 200 moving averages which are moving downwards.

Trading recommendations

We remain bearish on the outlook for the currency. The nearest target remained the support level 0.7270. In the scenario where the buyers take control over the market the instrument will grow to 0.7400 – 0.7500.



GOLD

General overview

Yesterday the gold futures fell the first time in three sessions as investors began taking profits after the last week rally.

Current situation

The gold futures were in the red zone yesterday. The price decreased and lost about 0.48%. The market is still unstable after the Brexit referendum and the gold is still in demand that supported the metal. The resistance is at 1330, the support comes in at 1300.

MACD is in the positive area, its histogram decreased. We receive the sell signal from the indicator. If the histogram keeps decreasing, the drop of the pair will be continued. RSI remained close to the overbought area. If the signal line gets into the area the growth will be continued. In the scenario where the oscillator falls we will get a sell signal. The price is above the Moving Averages and their direction is upwards.

Trading recommendations

We are still bullish longer-term for the gold. If XAU/USD does make a breakout at that level 1330 the pair will grow to 1360. A downtrend will start as soon as the pair drops below the support level 1300.



Brent

General overview

The oil prices strengthened after falling to a seven-week low after the decision of London to leave the EU. The news that the Norway oil company stands before a strike supported the oil quotes yesterday.

Current situation

The oil quotations continued its recovery on Tuesday. The price met the resistance at 48.50 where the futures decreased back to the mark of 47.50. However buyers did not despair and started a new growth attack. The resistance is at 48.50, the support is at 47.50.

MACD is in the negative area, its histogram moved north, that is a buy signal. RSI left the oversold area. Shall RSI move upwards the Brent futures will grow. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are above the price. The 200-day moving average is moving upwards, the 50-day and 100-day moving averages direction is down.

Trading recommendations

The Brent is in a green zone. An uptrend will start as soon as the pair rises above 49.50. In the alternative scenario the pair drops below 47.50 to the support at 46.50.



Nasdaq

General overview

The Bonds Market of the USA recovered after a sharp decline due to the referendum in the UK. Nasdaq Composite rose by 2.05% during Tuesday. However uncertainty regarding the future of Great Britain held investors from active trades.

Current situation

The index recovered and succeeded with it having gained more than 2%. The new local high is at 4279. The resistance comes at 4300, the support exists at 4250.

The indicators recommend long positions. MACD is in the negative area; its histogram grew on Tuesday. If the histogram keeps growing we will get a buy signal. RSI bounced from the oversold area. If the oscillator grows, that will be another buy signal. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) direction is downwards and that is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

If Nasdaq keeps recovering it will grow to the resistance at 4300. If the price makes another attempt to drop we will see its decrease back to 4200.



S&P 500

General overview

The USA stock markets recovered when investors realized that the Brexit theme is behind and the Fed is now unlikely to hike the rates this year. On Tuesday the Bonds Market showed a moderate recovery after the sharp fall of the previous two sessions.

Current situation

The overall outlook remained bearish; the index is in a descending channel. The resistance comes in at 2025, the support lies at 2012.

MACD is in the negative area, its histogram moved north, that is a buy signal. RSI bounced off the oversold level. If RSI grows that will be a buy signal. The Moving Averages direction is downwards.

Trading recommendations

If the index keeps growing the level 2025 will become its next target.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

30.06.2016

Euro

General overview

The euro did not change its positions after Consumer Confidence report in the Eurozone. At the same time the ECB will not rush with the further monetary policy easing. The regulator wants to see any proof that the Eurozone economy slows down before it takes any action.

Current situation

The euro continued climbing upwards step by step. The instrument remained in a downside channel on the 4 hour chart; the euro grew to its upper boundary. The pair was able to recover by 0.47% and set a new local high at 1.1130. The resistance stands at 1.1130, the support lies in at 1.1000.

MACD remained in the negative area, its histogram grew. The indicator will give buy signals while its histogram grows. RSI is in the neutral area; its growth from the oversold area is a buy signal. The price is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) which are moving downwards, that is a sell signal. The 200-day moving average is a strong resistance for the euro which it touched yesterday. The EUR/USD is trying to return into the upward channel on the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

The pair may continue its growth if the euro breaks the level of 1.1130 where the 200-SMA lies. Once we break above the 1.1130 mark, we think that the 1.1200 level will be next.



Pound

General overview

On Wednesday, the pound recovered as the market sentiment continued to stabilize after a shocking decision of London to leave the European Union. Meanwhile, Stephen Crabb (the leader of the Conservative Party and a candidate for Prime Minister) excluded the possibility of another referendum regarding the Brexit.

Current situation

The pound actively recovered yesterday and was able to gain about 1.12% during the day. The pair is trying to close the gap it opened this week with. The resistance is at 1.3500, the support comes in at 1.3300.

MACD remained in the negative area, its histogram grew. The indicator will give buy signals while its histogram grows. RSI is in the neutral area; its growth from the oversold area is a buy signal. The price is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving downwards, that is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

If the pound grows it will advance to 1.3700 to close the gap. Only a move below the strong support at 1.3300 can strengthen sellers’ positions.



Yen

General overview

The agile recovery of the yen faded out when the demand for the safe assets dimmed. Earlier, the Standard Chartered Bank sharply lowered its forecast for the pair at the end of the third quarter. The Bank noted that the BoJ and the Ministry of Finance can expand their stimulus measures to support the country economy after the Brexit.

Current situation

The dollar tried to break through 102.50 during the day after rolling back earlier at the Asian session. The pair reached the same level where it stopped the day before – 102.80. The resistance stands at 103.50, the support is at 102.50.

The indicators MACD and RSI stabilized. Even though MACD remained in the negative area its histogram grew, giving us a buy signal. If the indicator keeps heading north the growth of the pair will be continued. RSI is in the neutral area. The indicator bounced off the oversold area, that is a buy signal. The USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) which are moving downwards. The 50-day moving is the closest resistance for the instrument. The pair is oversold on the daily chart and is recovering.

Trading recommendations

If the USD/JPY continues growing its next stop could well be at 103.00 – 103.50 region. A break below 102.00 would open the way to 101.40.



CAD

General overview

The US dollar slightly fell against the major currencies. The market continued to work out the decision of the UK to exit the EU. Meanwhile, the growth of oil prices supported the Canadian dollar.

Current situation

The pair faced a downside pressure and was falling during the course of the day. The dollar lost about 0.17% in the pair. The pair stopped at the round level of 1.3000.The resistance exists at 1.3100, the support lies at 1.3000.

MACD remained in the positive area, its histogram decreased. The indicator will give sell signals while its histogram decreases. RSI is in the neutral area; its fall from the overbought area is a sell signal. The moving averages formed a cross-over. They are mobbing horizontally.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.2900 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.2800.



GOLD

General overview

On Wednesday, the gold futures showed a growth when investors excluded any further rate hike of the Fed this year when London decided to leave the European Union.

Current situation

The gold was in the green zone yesterday. The price recovered and gained about 0.78%. The pair approached the resistance 1330. The resistance is at 1330, the support comes in at 1300.

MACD is in the positive area, its histogram stopped decreasing. If the histogram grows the price will follow it. If the MACD returns to a decrease, the drop of the pair will be continued. RSI remained close to the overbought area. If the signal line gets into the area the growth will be continued. In the scenario where the oscillator falls we will get a sell signal. The price is close to the 2 year high on the daily chart. The price is above the Moving Averages and their direction is upwards.

Trading recommendations

The price is close to the strong resistance 1330. If the price breaks it we expect the growth to 1360.



Brent

General overview

The crude oil futures continued to recover due to the reduction of oil reserves in the United States. At the same time the dollar fell when the market reduced its expectations that the Fed would hike the rate in 2016. The decline of the dollar also contributed to the demand for the Brent.

Current situation

The oil quotations continued its recovery and gained about 3.29% during the day. The price is trying to return to the upward channel. The Brent approached the 50.50 – 51.00 region where it fell down a week ago. The resistance is at 50.50, the support is at 49.50.

MACD moved into the positive area, its histogram grew, that is a buy signal. RSI kept growing after bouncing from the oversold area. Shall RSI move upwards the Brent futures will grow. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) formed a cross-over on the 4 hour chart. The price broke all of them; the 100-day moving average is a support for the futures now. The price bounced from the 50-day moving on the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

We advise to consider long positions with the first target – 50.50. After fixing above the first target, the level 51.50 will become the next one.



DAX

General overview

The European stock markets grew on Wednesday, recovering after a collapse due to the Brexit. The Bonds Market was supported by the ECB statements. The regulator promised to take additional measures to limit the impact of the Brexit as well as of high oil prices.

Current situation

The index started Wednesday with a gap upwards. Then DAX continued its recovery and reached the resistance 9550 where it spent the whole day in a consolidation. The resistance comes at 9760, the support exists at 9550.

The indicators recommend long positions. MACD is in the negative area; its histogram grew, that is a buy signal. RSI bounced from the oversold area and grew upwards. If the oscillator grows further, that will be another buy signal. The Moving Averages (100 and 200) direction is downwards, the 50-day moving is horizontal.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 9760 and 10000.



S&P 500

General overview

The US stocks sharply rose on Wednesday. The Bonds Market has been growing the second day in a row, as the initial panic that was caused by the decision of the UK to leave the European Union disappears. The Standard & Poor's 500 came out in profit compared with levels where it was at the end of the last year.

Current situation

The index recovered and was able to set a new local high at 2061. SP500 was able to grow by 1,65% during the course of trades. The resistance comes in at 2070, the support lies at 2055.

MACD is in the negative area. The indicator reached the centerline. If MACD moves into the positive area the index will keep growing. RSI is near the overbought level. If RSI declined that will be a sell signal. Shall it move upwards and the index will grow. The index broke the 50-SMA on the 4 hour chart. The 50-SMA is moving downwards. The 100-EMA is crossing the 200-EMA downwards.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 2040 breakthrough down the way to the support 2025 will be opened.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

01.07.2016

Euro

General overview

In economic news, a preliminary Consumer Price Index in the Euro zone unexpectedly rose in June. The release decreased investors' concerns about the threat of deflation in the region. The growth of the prices was positive news for the European Central Bank (ECB) which plans to reach the target inflation rate of 2%. Mark Carney’s speech supported the dollar yesterday.

Current situation

Technically, the main trend is down, the pair remained in a descending channel. All attempts to break through 1.1130 failed. The level 1.1130 and the 50-day moving average limited a growth of the instrument. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards, that is a sell signal for now. The resistance stands at 1.1130, the support lies in at 1.1000.

MACD remained in the negative area, its histogram decreased, that is a sell signal. RSI is in the neutral area; the indicator turned down to the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0900, 1.0830.



Pound

General overview

Yesterday, the pound grew against the US dollar after the block of the UK positive economic data. The markets continued their recovery after the UK decision to leave the European Union. Mark Carney (Governor of the Bank of England) gave his speech yesterday. His promises to reduce the rate this summer weakened the pound.

Current situation

The pound slowed down its recovery and stopped at the mark of 1.3500. The instrument fell at the American session, the pair lost about 1.47%. The pair is still within a short-term upward channel. The resistance is at 1.3300, the support comes in at 1.3100.

MACD remained in the negative area, its histogram decreased. The indicator will give buy signals if the histogram grows. Conversely, if MACD decreases that will be a sell signal. RSI approached the oversold area, that is a sell signal. The GBP/USD is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving downwards, that is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The next buyers’ stop could well be at 1.3700. However, we do not see any strong drivers in the foreseeable future. We support the idea of selling the pound further to the support 1.3100.



Yen

General overview

The industrial production fell in Japan in May. According to the Ministry of Economy, slow down of the world economy and problems with the automobile sector severely affected the industrial production, which fell by 2.3% compared with the previous month. Economists had expected the index to remain unchanged.

Current situation

The instrument showed side trades during the day and was able to grow only at the American session. The pair grew by 0.32%. The resistance stands at 103.50, the support is at 102.50.

The growth of MACD slowed down. The indicator remained in the negative area. If the indicator keeps heading north the growth of the pair will be continued. RSI is in the neutral area, the oscillator does not give signals. The USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) which are moving downwards. The pair tested the 50-day moving yesterday. The 50-day moving is the closest resistance for the instrument. The pair is oversold on the daily chart and is recovering.

Trading recommendations

If the USD/JPY continues growing its next stop could well be at 103.00 – 103.50 region. A break below 102.00 would open the way to 101.40.



Franc

General overview

We do not expect a sharp correction of the franc after the warnings of the Switzerland Bank regarding its possible intervention in case of a sharp growth of the franc after the Brexit. In economic news, Swiss National Bank expects to achieve a positive inflation in 2018.

Current situation

The market looks bearish. The instrument began Thursday with a drop. The pair was able to break the mark 0.9750 and set a new local low at 0.9724. However, the American traders returned the dollar above 0.9750. The resistance exists at 0.9800, the support lies at 0.9750.

MACD remained in the positive area, its histogram decreased. The indicator will give sell signals while its histogram decreases. RSI is in the neutral area; its fall from the overbought area is a sell signal. The moving averages formed a cross-over. They are moving horizontally.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to the support level of 0.9750. We do not exclude the growth to 0.9850.



NZD

Despite the fact that the dollar is largely won from the risk aversion that happened due to the Brexit the weakened expectations that the Fed would hike the interest rates this year limited its growth.

Current situation

The kiwi slowed down its recovery and stopped at the mark of 0.7140. The instrument fell at the Asian session, and then recovered during the day. The resistance 0.7150 limits its further progress. The pair is within a short-term upward channel. The resistance is at 0.7150, the support comes in at 0.7050.

MACD moved into the positive area. The indicator shows a divergence. MACD will give buy signals if the histogram grows. Conversely, if MACD decreases that will be a sell signal. RSI approached the overbought area, that is a buy signal. The NZD/USD is above the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving upwards, that is a buy signal.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 0.7150 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 0.7250 will be opened after this breakthrough.



GOLD

General overview

On Thursday the gold weakened due to the decrease of the passions over the London decision to leave the UK. The current stability in the markets undermined demand for the safe assets.

Current situation

The gold remained in a consolidation phase. The pair was moving in a range 1312 – 1325. The resistance is at 1330, the support comes in at 1300.

MACD is in the positive area, its histogram continued decreasing. If the histogram grows the price will follow it. If the MACD returns to a decrease, the drop of the pair will be continued. RSI remained close to the overbought area. If the signal line gets into the area the growth will be continued. In the scenario where the oscillator falls we will get a sell signal. The price is close to the 2 year high on the daily chart. The price is above the Moving Averages and their direction is upwards.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1300 breakthrough down the way to the support 1270 will be opened.



Brent

General overview

The oil prices have shown the biggest growth since 2009 in the second quarter of 2016. The factors that supported the Brent were: a drop in the US production, forest fires in Canada and fighting in Nigeria and Libya. All these factors significantly reduced the surplus of the world market.

Current situation

The oil quotations stopped its recovery and corrected yesterday. The oil futures moved from the local high at 51.00 and reached the support at 49.50. The resistance is at 50.50, the support is at 49.50.

MACD moved into the positive area, its histogram decreased, that is a sell signal. RSI bounced from the overbought area. Shall RSI move upwards the Brent futures will grow, otherwise the price will decrease. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are below the metal on the 4 hour chart. The price broke all of them down after that it returned above of them. The price bounced from the 50-day moving on the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target – 49.50. When the price consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 48.50.



DAX

General overview

The German stock market closed the day in a green zone due to strengthening of the public services sector, consumer goods and food and beverage.

Current situation

The index spent Thursday in a green zone. DAX showed a sharp growth and reached the next resistance within the hours. The resistance comes at 9760, the support exists at 9550.

The indicators recommend long positions. MACD is in the negative area; its histogram grew, that is a buy signal. RSI bounced from the oversold area and grew upwards. If the oscillator grows further, that will be another buy signal. The Moving Averages (100 and 200) direction is downwards, the 50-day moving is horizontal. The price DAX broke the 50-EMA but did not grow further.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 10000 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 10175.



S&P 500

General overview

The index continued its recovery yesterday. The oil, gas and financial sectors were in demand. Segate (the storage systems producer) development plans also supported S&P 500.

Current situation

The index recovered and was able to set a new local high at 2088. SP500 was able to grow by 1,25% during the course of trades. Now the resistance comes in at 2085, the support lies at 2070.

MACD is in the positive area, its histogram grew. If MACD keeps growing the index will keep growing. RSI is near the overbought area. If RSI declined that will be a sell signal. Shall it move upwards and the index will grow further. The index broke all moving averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. All moving averages are below of the S&P 500, that is a buy signal.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates above the resistance 2085, it may continue the upward movement in the short term. The potential target is 2100.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

05.07.2016

Euro

General overview

The euro regained lost ground against the US dollar, the price returned to the opening level. Initially, the euro declined due to the weak data of the investor confidence indicator from Sentix. According to the indicator investors' sentiment worsened in the Eurozone in July. The index reached 18-month low due to the increased concerns about the economic impact of the Brexit.

Current situation

The EUR/USD spent the day at the opening level. Technically the indicators are in a flat within a neutral zone. The indicators MACD and RSI are not showing a clear direction. The MACD remained at the zero line. RSI is close to the overbought area. The resistance stands at 1.1200, the support lies in at 1.1130.

The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are horizontal. The pair receives a good support from the 200-day moving average near 1.1100. The 100-day moving average is a resistance.

Trading recommendations

If the EUR/USD moves above the mark 1.1130 the euro may grow towards 1.1200. If the instrument moves down the pair may reach 1.1000.



Pound

General overview

Construction sector activity in the UK unexpectedly fell in June to a seven-year low. That news added additional concerns that the British economy slows down after the Brexit referendum.

Current situation

The pair traded at the previous week close levels. The price spent the day in a narrow flat within 1.3330 – 1.3230. The resistance is at 1.3300, the support comes in at 1.3100.

Indicators remained in a red zone. MACD is in the negative area, the histogram is at the same level it closed last week. RSI is close to the oversold area. The 50-day moving average limits the growth on the 1-hour chart. The GBP/USD is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving downwards. All indicators support the bearish trend.

Trading recommendations

Buyers seem not to have enough powder to launch the pair upwards. We expect markets to stay fairly neutral until Mark Carney gives his speech. We will be keeping a close eye on the resistance 1.3500. If the pair fixates over it the instrument may grow to 1.3700 to close the gap. Should the level 1.3200 break down and the pair may drop further to 1.2900.



Yen

General overview

The dollar slightly changed against other currencies in a quiet Monday while the markets are again cautious and this time it is all about the Fed decision to hike the rate or not. The USD/JPY continued to ignore the growth of "risk appetite" that indicated sellers’ presence in the market.

Current situation

The instrument remained at the level of 102.50 on Monday. The market showed low volatile trades due to the Independence Day celebration in the USA. The resistance stands at 103.50, the support is at 102.50.

The indicators (MACD and RSI) are in a red zone. Both indicators do not give clear signals. The USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) which are moving downwards. The pair tested the 50-day moving and bounced downwards. The 50-day moving is the closest resistance for the pair.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential targets are 103.50, 104.50. If the price falls it will get to 101.40.



NZD

The pair NZD/USD strengthened by 0.84% to 0.7250. Commodity currencies grew due to the oil price growth. The news that Weekly Crude Oil Stock decreased in the USA supported the Brent futures.

Current situation

The kiwi continued its recovery and was able to set a new local high at 0.7250. The resistance is at 0.7250, the support comes in at 0.7150.

MACD remained in the positive area. The positive MACD signals about buyers’ presence. RSI reached the overbought area. We prefer to buy until it stays close to the overbought level. The NZD/USD is above the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving upwards, that is a buy signal.

Trading recommendations

An uptrend will be continued as soon as the pair rises above 0.7250. A move below 0.7050 may trigger a downward movement towards testing 0.6950.



GOLD

General overview

The gold futures continued to climb, remaining near a two-year high. The fading expectations that the Fed will hike the rate this year supported the precious metal.

Current situation

The gold slightly grew due to the absence of American traders on Monday. The pair gained 1.53% and approached the lately set high at 1360. The resistance is at 1360 now, the support comes in at 1330.

Technically, indicators support the overbought zone. The MACD is growing with strong momentum, the RSI oscillator moved above the level of 70 that is a good bullish signal. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving upwards, that signals about a growth tendency.

Trading recommendations

The gold metal may continue its growth before Non-Farms. The price may break the resistance 1360 and reach 1390. If we receive positive Non-Farms the instrument may decrease below 1316.



Brent

General overview

The Brent continued its recovery yesterday. The events in Nigeria and the Norwegian oil and gas industry workers’ victory in a fight for higher wages supported the oil prices

Current situation

The oil continued its recovery on Monday. The fundamental background supported the oil futures. The price was able to reach a current resistance at 50.50 where it turned down and slightly decrease. The mark 50.50 seems to be a hard level to break. The price has recently bounced downwards four times from this level. The resistance is at 50.50, the support is at 49.50.

The indicators (MACD and RSI) remain positive. Staying in a green zone is a positive factor for buyers. The moving averages form a cross-over. The 100-day moving average broke the 200-day moving average on the 4 hour chart.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 49.50, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 48.50.



DAX

General overview

There was a low volatile trading at the European Bonds Market due to the Independence Day celebration in the USA. The European stocks traded in the red zone after a four-day rally, as the decline in shares of the Italian banks eliminated the growth in price of the mining companies securities. The weak statistics in the EU and the UK pressured the indices as well. In addition, the European automobile producers lost some positions: Fiat Chrysler shares became cheaper by 4.0%, Porsche by 3.1%, Renault and Peugeot by 2.9%.

Current situation

The index decreased from the recently sent highs at 9800. DAX30 returned below the level of 9760 and ended the day close to the mark of 9700. The resistance comes at 9760, the support exists at 9550.

The indicators (MACD and RSI) remained in a green zone. MACD slightly decreased, RSI moved from the overbought level. The staying in a green zone is a good supporting factor for the buyers. The price returned below the 50-day moving average. The 100-day moving average is a resistance for the index. The moving averages direction is downwards.

Trading recommendations

The index now seems to be heading towards its immediate support near 9550. We feel comfortable taking short-term short positions. Alternatively, there will be a break above 9760 and a growth towards 9870.



S&P 500

General overview

The excitement about the Brexit calms down and the Bonds Market in the USA is returning to the levels it was before the crisis.

Current situation

The index remained close to 2100, the level it reached last week. The resistance comes in at 2100, the support lies at 2085.

MACD is in the positive area, its histogram remained at the same levels. RSI is in the overbought area. The indicators indicate a buy signal. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are turning upwards on the 4 hour chart.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The target is the level 2120. We do not exclude the falls to 2085.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman