"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis12.09.2014Fundamental analysisIn the news absence the euro/dollar was traded under the technical factors. Faced with resistance, the European currency fell slightly against the dollar. The Eurozone economic indicators were published by few posts, the France industrial production dynamics could not provide the euro support, as it showed the July dramatic slowdown.
The British pound managed to recover after the new low against the dollar touching. The reason for a such events turn can be called the technical factors presented by a strong support that the pair cannot overcome almost three sessions, as well as the Scotland people views variability presented information, where, according to a new pull, where the most people are already on the Scotland separation opponents side. The UK economy statistics was not published and the political day component - the Parliament inflation hearing, didn’t cause the market reaction.
The Japanese currency was the most vulnerable in the foreign exchange market. Obviously, the dollar sentiment, formed under the Fed and BoJ multi-directional monetary policy influence continues to support the dollar/yen. The additional buying interest was given by the observed USA government bond yields increase - the 10-year-old "Treasuries" have reached the highest level since the end of July.Technical analysisEuro (EUR)General overviewWe expect the August Germany and France consumer price index final assessment publication, still no one waits for changes - 0.0% m/m, +0.8% y/y and 0.3% m/m, 0.3% y/y, respectively, that will not activate the market, unless we get unexpected news.
The resistance level of 1.2935 retest was followed by the short-term consolidation. After that, there was the price bounce down amid the high volume. Then the pair came back to the level of 1.2930.
The price is finding the first support at 1.2930, the next one is at 1.2850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3000, the next one is at 1.3070.
There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.
Trading recommendationsThe downward movement potential target is 1.2850. If the price grows it will get to 1.3000.
Pound (GBP)General overviewThe BoE speeches reduced to the familiar rhetoric that the interest rate is likely to be raised no earlier than 2015. The UK news set has presented the most interesting information - the August RICS house price balance report showed the appraisers number reduction who expects the price growth in the short time, up to 40% from 48% previously.
Based on the volume which was on the trades closing, the pound clearly intends to continue the correctional price growth up. In addition, it is worth noting the level of 1.6270 testing. The gap was closed.
The price is finding the first support at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6270, the next one is at 1.6340.
There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.
Trading recommendationsAfter the trend line 1.6270 breakthrough up the way to the resistance level of 1.6340 will be opened.
Yen (JPY)General overviewThere is no Japanese economy news for today so the yen continues to fall against the dollar and on the current trading, obviously amid the Japan stock market optimism wave, where the Nikkei has grown by almost 0.8%.
The corrective price decrease to the level of 106.70 was fallowed by the price bounce upwards. However, judging by what amounts were used to the continued American dollar growth against the Japanese yen, it can't be called as the confident uptrend.
The price is finding the support at 106.70, the next one is at 106.30. The price is finding the resistance at 107.10.
There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen – a horizontal. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.
Trading recommendationsThe price is likely to go to the downward trend line 106.30. We believe it will continue growing.
Franc (CHF)General overviewThe Swiss franc has corrected its fall against the dollar. We expect the initial jobless claims where the average forecast is reduced to 300,000. There also will be the August federal budget report (forecast - $ 129.00 billion.).
The price is finding the first support at 0.9330, the next one is at 0.9270. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9430.
There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.
Trading recommendationsWe advise to long with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9430.