"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.05.04.2017Euro General overviewThe euro got a minor support from strong Producer Price Index in the Eurozone.
Current situation The overall picture remained negative on Tuesday. The euro maintained its neutral stance in the first part of Tuesday. The major traded in a narrow channel between 1.0650 - 1.0675. The downward pressure intensified at the noon. Sellers made an attempt to break below the handle but failed. The spot tried to break the 200-EMA in the morning but failed and stayed around it in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs pointed lower while the 200-EMA was neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0700, the support comes in at 1.0650.
The MACD histogram decreased which is a sell signal. RSI headed downwards which confirms the strength of sellers.
Trading recommendations The EUR/USD has a moderate bearish potential. A move below 1.0650 would revive bearishness towards 1.0600.
Pound General overviewThe pound weakened following a weaker-than-expected UK's PMI Construction.
Current situation After Monday’s sell-off the pound made an attempt to recover in the night. Buyers returned the price to 1.2500 where the major ran through fresh offers. The pair got under selling pressure in the mid-Asian session. The spot was weakening the whole night afterwards and approached 1.2400 in the morning. The downward pressure faded around the level and the major was able to reverse some losses. The 4 hours timeframe showed that the spot bounced off the 50-EMA downwards in the Asian session and tested the 100-EMA in the morning. The 100-EMA crossed the 200-EMA and continued upward movement. The 50-EMA turned lower while the 200-EMA was neutral in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2500, the support comes in at 1.2400.
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI advanced south which confirms the current downward movement.
Trading recommendationsAs the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards towards the level at 1.2400.
Yen General overviewThe US dollar weakened vs. the yen amid risk-off sentiment in markets. Meanwhile, investors are waiting for the Fed’s minutes to get more hints about the next rate hike action.
Current situation The bearish momentum persisted on Tuesday. The US dollar remained well offered while the yen was in demand amid risk-off sentiment. The USD kept losing ground the whole night and morning. Sellers stopped only at 100.34 at the noon. According to 4 hours chart the price broke the 50-EMA and continued developing below the moving averages afterwards. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs kept heading lower in the mentioned chart. The resistance is highlighted at 111.00, the support comes in at 110.00.
MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains within the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. RSI indicator was near undervalued territory, favoring a new move higher.
Trading recommendations A pullback is expected in the market in the short term. While to the upside, the 111.00 resistance will need to be retaken for support before a price can rally towards 112.00. Nevertheless, we are still bearish. The major seems to be heading back to 4-month lows touched last week.
AUD/USD General overviewAs expected the RBA left its rate unchanged on Tuesday. The Aussie weakened after that amid a weak labor and inflation data.
Current situation The selling pressure around the Aussie remained intact on Tuesday. As a result, the spot dropped to fresh multi-week lows yesterday. The price pushed away from 0.7600 at the daily open. The AUD continued to trade in negative ground the whole night and reached the 0.7550 region in the morning. The selling pressure eased around the handle and the major tried to develop a consolidation. The pair AUD/USD continued developing well below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA crossed the 100 and 200 EMAs downwards while the 100-EMA crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The 100-EMA turned neutral while the 50 and 200 EMAs kept heading lower in the same timeframe. The resistance is highlighted 0.7600, the support comes in at 0.7550.
MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. The RSI indicator was holding near oversold levels, favoring a new move lower.
Trading recommendations The pair stopped around 0.7550, and seems poised to extend its decline. Below 0.7550, AUD/USD will likely target at the 0.7500 support.
XAU/USD General overviewGold prices strengthened amid risk-off sentiment. The US Trade Balance was in focus on Tuesday. Moreover, investors are waiting for the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping.
Current situation The risk-off sentiment allowed gold prices to extend their vertical rise. The XAU/USD pair started the day above 1250 and advanced up to 1260 dollars per ounce during the Asian trades. The spot reached the resistance in the morning. Buyers failed to regain the level and had to take a retreat staying around the level afterwards. According to 4 hours chart the gold prices broke the 50-EMA upwards and continued developing well above the moving averages. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs pointed higher in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted 1260, the support comes in at 1250 dollars per ounce.
MACD entered the positive area. If MACD remains in the positive territory, buyers’ positions will strengthen. RSI moved north which confirms the current upward momentum.
Trading recommendations The current hurdle rejected the precious metal several times. That’s why we remain cautious until we see a clear break above the level. After a daily close above 1260 dollars per ounce we could see the spot extending upwards to the 1270 region during the next sessions. Otherwise, we will see a correction back to 1240 dollars per ounce.
Brent General Overview Oil prices weakened in the light of the US dollar strengthening. Besides, the markets are still concerned over a global supply glut amid growing Libyan production and the US drilling activity.
Current situation The positive mood seems to be over. Buyers met unbreakable barrier at 53.50 dollars per barrel and retreated from it. After a failure to break the level the benchmark moved lower. Brent oil prices spent the night in a flat and eased further towards 52.50 in the morning. However, a fresh bout of buying interest emerged in the late European session. Oil prices spiked upwards and touched 53.50 ahead of the NY opening. The 4 hours chart showed that Brent oil prices tested the 200-EMA and bounced off downwards on Monday. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA upwards. The 50-EMA kept heading higher, the 100-EMA was neutral while the 200-EMA maintained its bearish slope in the same timeframe. The resistance lies at 53.50, the support comes in at 52.50 dollars per barrel.
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator was near overvalued territory, favoring a new move lower.
Trading recommendations The price eyes strong support at 52.50 dollars per barrel loss of which would trigger further weakness towards 51.50.
DAXGeneral overviewEuropean stocks traded lower following a decline in oil prices.
Current situation The price remained in an upward channel. However, DAX turned bearish right after its opening. Sellers pushed the price to the lower limit of the channel at 12200 in the morning. The benchmark failed to advance beyond the line and remained above the level afterwards. According to 4 hours chart the index was above the moving averages which were all pointing higher. The resistance exists at 12300, the support stands at 12200.
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator held within overbought readings, and headed now south.
Trading recommendations DAX seems to be poised to extend its weakness. The main sellers’ goal is the level at 12200.
NASDAQ General overviewThe US stocks remained under pressure ahead of Trade balance release. Investors keep looking forward to the meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump.
Current situation NASDAQ extended its range bound trades on Tuesday. The price stayed between 5420 and 5445 the whole day. There is a fight between buyers and sellers. As we see sellers are winning as the price tends to go lower. We do not believe sellers will return control for a long period. However, we do not rule out a correction in the coming sessions. The price remained above the moving averages which were all pointing higher in the 4 hours timeframe. The 50-EMA bounced off the 100-EMA upwards in the same chart. The resistance is at 5460, the support comes in at 5420.
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI oscillator moved upwards.
Trading recommendations A move below 5420 will signal the presence of sellers who might want to push the benchmark to 5380.
*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services,
Alexander Kofman