"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 09.01.2015Fundamental analysis The US dollar suspended to strengthen against its major. During the day the EUR/USD remained under pressure amid the negative euro area inflation release. According to the preliminary data the December CPI was in the negative area at the year-on- year level of 0.2%. The market received the first alarm about the deflationary threat growth. The pair euro/dollar reached the mark of 1.1801, but after the Fed's minutes publication traders cut short positions that caused a technical rebound. It should be noted that the FOMC representatives expectations, regarding inflation and employment remain the same - the first indicator will decline in the short term, while the second one shows a steady growth. It was also noted that the monetary regulator expects a higher dollar rate in 2015. The pair slightly corrected at the end of the day.
Yesterday the Brent oil fell to the 50th figure that encouraged bears to open short positions within the pair GBP/USD. The UK 10-year bond yields fell to the 2-year low, indicating the UK inflation expectations strong decline. The pair showed a slight correction at the yesterday trades.
After two days of sales bulls rushed to the market, opening "longs" at the attractive levels. The ADP positive employment release encouraged traders to open long positions - according to the agency the number of employees increased by 241 thousand in the private sector in December that exceeded the tradersā expectations and gives hope to the Non-Farm data output within the forecasted medians.Technical analysisEuro (EUR)General overviewGermany will publish the industry orders data. In November the PMI manufacturing sector leading indicator fell below 50%, to its lowest level since June 2013, indicating the weak data output.
The pair EUR/USD tested the support level of 1.1770 and is consolidating below the resistance level of 1.1850.
The price is finding the first support at 1.1770, the next one is at 1.1690. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1850, the next one is at 1.1950.
There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.
Trading recommendationsThe approach to the level of 1.1850 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the levels of support 1.1770 and 1.1690.
Pound (GBP)General overviewThe pound slightly corrected. Earlier the pound was under pressure amid the rising dollar and the UK weak macroeconomic statistics.
The Bank of England will announce its decision on interest rates and bond buyback program. It is expected that the rate will remain at the level of 0.5% and the program will be in the amount of 375 pounds.
We observe the downward trend volatility decrease within the pair GBP/USD. However, we see the volumes growth.
The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.
There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.
Trading recommendationsThe downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.5015 soon.
Yen (JPY)General overviewTraders will focus their attention on the US and Japan stock markets dynamics. It is premature to talk about the full corrective movement completion in the US stock market - it is necessary to wait for the confirming signals, for example, the trading day at the level of 2050 according the S & P500 index. The US 2-year Treasury bond yields over the last 10 days decreased by 10 points that is a bullish signal for the stock market.
The pair USD/JPY returned above the upward trend line of 119.20.
The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.
The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.
The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.
Trading recommendationsWe believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level of 120.40 and the next one is at 121.60.
Franc (CHF)General overviewThe pair dollar/franc overcame the second resistance level of 1.0100 and continues the upward movement. Then it slightly corrected.
On Friday the US Labor Department will publish the government employment report that can show the new job-creating growth for 228,000 people, according to the forecasts, the unemployment rate decreased to the 6,5 year minimum by 5.7%.
About the middle of the Tuesday American session within the given pair the bullish sentiment is dominated. The exchange rate found the strong support around the level of 1.0100.
The price is finding the first support at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0200, the next one is at 1.0270.
There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.
Trading recommendationsWe advise to long with the first target ā 1.0200. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0270.
*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.