Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana
Posted: Thu, 18 August 2016, 7:06 pm
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.
19.08.2016
EUR / USD
General overview
A further weakening of the US currency brought EURUSD pair up from yesterday's consolidation levels. The current upward trend in the EURUSD market persists and is gaining momentum.
Current situation
Growth is restrained by a significant resistance level of EUR 1.1320. Support zone is located in the Eur 1.1207-Eur 1.1230.
Trading recommendations
We do not exclude the possible rollback from EUR 1.1320. Long positions are suitable on passing and confident settlement above this level.
JPY / USD
General review
During the Asian session, the pair USD / JPY, fell to a new level of support JPY99.90, ending yesterday's technical pullback upwards. Japanese data were contradictory. Japan's trade surplus in July amounted to 514 billion, which is almost twice more what economist expected - 248 billion. Japan imports volume (y/y) decreased by -24.7%, while expectation was a decline of -20.6%.
Current situation
Today, the pressure on the Japanese currency strengthened. The next support level – is local minimum at JPY98.93.
Trading recommendations
The market is bearish and is trading at local minimums . We are not sure of further dropping. However, passing level JPY99.90 will sends the quotes lower.
XAU / USD
General review
Gold continues to trade within a medium-term channel $ 1335- $ 1358. A further weakening of US dollar sent a quotation in the upper range of the specified Range. Consolidation continues. Trading activity is below average.
Trading recommendations
Exit from the consolidation is delayed. Inside channel trading with short stops is preferable.
AUD / USD
General review
The data on Australia economy keeps on appearing - the number of jobs grew by 26.2 thousand in July, higher than the forecasts. The level of the Australian unemployment rate fell in July to 5.7%, from 5.8% in June.
Current situation
The Australian dollar finished yesterday's correction and on Daily is trying to stay above the significant 0.7670 level. Prospects for further midterm growth are strong at least to 0.7820.
Trading recommendations
if market close above 0.7620 is it likely to gain futher.
NZD / USD
General review
The New Zealand dollar came close to strategic resistance 0.7300-0.7320. In case of breakdup we can talk about the medium-term bullish trend to 0.75-0.76.
Trading recommendations
We consider it reasonable to wait for the development of the current situation in the market and remain flat- uncertainty is high. Longs only after the passage and settlemnet above 0.7310-0.7315
BRENT
General review
Contrary to our expectations the overbought oil managed to consolidate above $ 49 and reached the area of $ 50 and then $ 50.25
Current situation
It looks like the market is moving up to the local maximum of 2016 years- $ 51 per barrel. Yesterday, the market was supported by inventory data. However, the annual level of the US oil production is still declining. It is a kind a sign of speculative component in this movement.
Trading recommendations
The rally in the oil market continues. Near term resistance is at $ 51 per barrel area. Support is around $ 49-67- $ 49
*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman
19.08.2016
EUR / USD
General overview
A further weakening of the US currency brought EURUSD pair up from yesterday's consolidation levels. The current upward trend in the EURUSD market persists and is gaining momentum.
Current situation
Growth is restrained by a significant resistance level of EUR 1.1320. Support zone is located in the Eur 1.1207-Eur 1.1230.
Trading recommendations
We do not exclude the possible rollback from EUR 1.1320. Long positions are suitable on passing and confident settlement above this level.
JPY / USD
General review
During the Asian session, the pair USD / JPY, fell to a new level of support JPY99.90, ending yesterday's technical pullback upwards. Japanese data were contradictory. Japan's trade surplus in July amounted to 514 billion, which is almost twice more what economist expected - 248 billion. Japan imports volume (y/y) decreased by -24.7%, while expectation was a decline of -20.6%.
Current situation
Today, the pressure on the Japanese currency strengthened. The next support level – is local minimum at JPY98.93.
Trading recommendations
The market is bearish and is trading at local minimums . We are not sure of further dropping. However, passing level JPY99.90 will sends the quotes lower.
XAU / USD
General review
Gold continues to trade within a medium-term channel $ 1335- $ 1358. A further weakening of US dollar sent a quotation in the upper range of the specified Range. Consolidation continues. Trading activity is below average.
Trading recommendations
Exit from the consolidation is delayed. Inside channel trading with short stops is preferable.
AUD / USD
General review
The data on Australia economy keeps on appearing - the number of jobs grew by 26.2 thousand in July, higher than the forecasts. The level of the Australian unemployment rate fell in July to 5.7%, from 5.8% in June.
Current situation
The Australian dollar finished yesterday's correction and on Daily is trying to stay above the significant 0.7670 level. Prospects for further midterm growth are strong at least to 0.7820.
Trading recommendations
if market close above 0.7620 is it likely to gain futher.
NZD / USD
General review
The New Zealand dollar came close to strategic resistance 0.7300-0.7320. In case of breakdup we can talk about the medium-term bullish trend to 0.75-0.76.
Trading recommendations
We consider it reasonable to wait for the development of the current situation in the market and remain flat- uncertainty is high. Longs only after the passage and settlemnet above 0.7310-0.7315
BRENT
General review
Contrary to our expectations the overbought oil managed to consolidate above $ 49 and reached the area of $ 50 and then $ 50.25
Current situation
It looks like the market is moving up to the local maximum of 2016 years- $ 51 per barrel. Yesterday, the market was supported by inventory data. However, the annual level of the US oil production is still declining. It is a kind a sign of speculative component in this movement.
Trading recommendations
The rally in the oil market continues. Near term resistance is at $ 51 per barrel area. Support is around $ 49-67- $ 49
*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman