Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana
Posted: Thu, 9 March 2017, 7:09 pm
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.
10.03.2017
Euro
General overview
The euro was attracting everyone’s attention on Thursday in light of the ECB meeting. Investors expected the regulator to leave the rate unchanged. Investors believe the ECB won't risk ahead of important elections in Europe.
Current situation
Sellers managed to lead the price a bit lower in the night. However, after posting a daily low at 1.0524 the pair reversed its direction. A minor dollar retracement triggered some profit taking move following the pair's recent sell-off. Buyers pushed the price to 1.0550 in the morning and broke the level in the late European session. The price was below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs pointed lower in the same chart. The resistance is at 1.0600, the support comes in at 1.0550.
MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. RSI indicator was near undervalued territory, favoring a move higher.
Trading recommendations
The major is still in a downward channel and the single currency is still under pressure. After a close below the level of 1.0550 we could see EUR/USD extending its declines down to 1.0500.
Pound
General overview
The British pound extended its weakness in the light of a stronger dollar and uncertainty around Brexit.
Current situation
After the night flat the price continued moving downwards on Thursday. The spot stayed in a tight range 1.2160-1.2150 in the night. Sellers became more active in the morning and led the major out of the sideways channel. According to the 4 hours chart the price continued developing well below the moving averages. The moving averages maintained their bearish slope in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2200, the support comes in at 1.2100.
MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. The RSI indicator held near oversold readings.
Trading recommendations
The pair remains in red figures. The nearest sellers’ target is the support level 1.2100.
Yen
General overview
The upbeat Chinese Consumer Price Index supported the US dollar on Thursday. Moreover, the greenback is well supported by a possible Fed rate hike action in March. However, this Friday's NFP report still matters.
Current situation
The undertone for USD is clearly positive. The pair extended its near-term upward trajectory on Thursday. After Wednesday's rally the price pulled back a bit. Buyers allowed sellers to reverse some losses. However, a fresh buying interest emerged at the daily open. Buyers began returning the lost ground slowly and steady and had reversed all the recent losses by the European morning. Bulls continued advancing north and reached 115.00 in the noon. According to 4 hours chart the price continued developing well above the moving averages. The 50-EMA crossed the 100 and 200 EMAs upwards. The 50-EMA kept pointed higher while the 100 and 200 EMAs were neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 115.00, the support comes in at 114.00.
The MACD histogram grew which is a buy signal. The RSI indicator was near overvalued territory, favoring a new move higher.
Trading recommendations
We believe the US will extend its upward impulse in the short term. A further extension beyond 115.00 is not ruled out. 115.50 is the next profit target.
AUD/USD
General overview
The AUD weakened amid a stronger dollar and disappointing Chinese inflation data.
Current situation
Sentiment remained negative on Thursday. Sellers maintained control and pushed the price lower. They moved slowly in the Asian session and accelerated in the morning. The AUD reached 0.7500 post European open. The major continued developing well below the moving averages which were all pointing lower in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA was below the 100-EMA and crossed the 200-EMA downwards in the same timeframe. The resistance is highlighted 0.7550, the support comes in at 0.7500.
The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI indicator is near undervalued territory, favoring a new move lower.
Trading recommendations
A firm break below 0.7500 handle would open 0.7450.
XAU/USD
General overview
Gold prices kept losing ground trading around 8 week lows in the light of speculations that the Fed will hike the rate next week.
Current situation
Gold opened on a weaker note on Thursday. Sellers remained in driver's seat and pushed the price lower in the night session. The XAU/USD pair extended its weakness in the European session and reached 1205 in the mid-European session. According to 4 hours chart the yellow metal continued developing well below the moving averages. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA downwards. The 50 and 100 EMAs pointed lower while the 200-EMA was neutral in the same chart. The resistance exists at 1210, the support stands at 1200 dollars per ounce.
MACD traded to the downside. RSI headed downwards which confirms the strength of sellers.
Trading recommendations
We assume that a daily close below 1200 would risk 1190 dollars per ounce.
Brent
General Overview
Oil prices dropped on Thursday amid the U.S. crude inventories growth which returned investors' concerns regarding a global glut despite supply cut agreement.
Current situation
Brent pulled back a bit during the Asian hours and reversed a minor portion of its Wednesday's losses. Buyers were able to return the price to the 53.50 region where the benchmark ran through fresh offers. Brent oil prices continued with a decline in the morning. Sellers returned the price below 53.50 and continued pushing the benchmark lower afterwards. Brent sharply fell in the noon and tested 52.50 dollars per barrel. The 4 hours chart showed that the black gold continued developing well below the moving averages which were all pointing lower. The 50-EMA crossed the 100 and 200 EMAs downwards and in the mentioned chart. The resistance lies at 52.50, the support comes in at 51.50 dollars per barrel.
MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. The RSI indicator remains within oversold readings.
Trading recommendations
A pullback is expected in the market in the near term. The price may recover a bit on profit-taking. The possible target is 53.50 dollars per barrel. If the downward pressure persists the price will reach 51.50 in the coming sessions.
DAX
General overview
European stocks traded lower ahead of the ECB meeting results. Energy sector shares decline and disappointing corporate readings reported weighed on stocks as well.
Current situation
DAX gapped lower at the open. However the benchmark failed to extend its downside direction. Buyers filled the gap post European open. The index continued trading in a familiar range afterwards. The price stayed around the 50-EMA in the 4 hours timeframe. The 100 and the 200 EMAs pointed higher while the 50-EMA was neutral in the mentioned chart. The resistance exists at 12000, the support stands at 11900.
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI consolidated within neutral territory.
Trading recommendations
The index now has the potential to post more gains. The main goal is the level at 12000. However, DAX needs to retake 11950 first.
NASDAQ
General overview
Wall Street traded flat in pre-market ahead of the ECB meeting and Non-Farm payroll report on Friday.
Current situation
NASDAQ remained flat on Thursday hovering above 5340 in the 5360 region. According to 4 hours chart the price broke the 50-EMA upwards. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance is at 5380, the support comes in at 5340.
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI remained within neutral territory.
Trading recommendations
An uptrend will start as soon, as the price rises above the resistance level 5380.
*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman
10.03.2017
Euro
General overview
The euro was attracting everyone’s attention on Thursday in light of the ECB meeting. Investors expected the regulator to leave the rate unchanged. Investors believe the ECB won't risk ahead of important elections in Europe.
Current situation
Sellers managed to lead the price a bit lower in the night. However, after posting a daily low at 1.0524 the pair reversed its direction. A minor dollar retracement triggered some profit taking move following the pair's recent sell-off. Buyers pushed the price to 1.0550 in the morning and broke the level in the late European session. The price was below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs pointed lower in the same chart. The resistance is at 1.0600, the support comes in at 1.0550.
MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. RSI indicator was near undervalued territory, favoring a move higher.
Trading recommendations
The major is still in a downward channel and the single currency is still under pressure. After a close below the level of 1.0550 we could see EUR/USD extending its declines down to 1.0500.
Pound
General overview
The British pound extended its weakness in the light of a stronger dollar and uncertainty around Brexit.
Current situation
After the night flat the price continued moving downwards on Thursday. The spot stayed in a tight range 1.2160-1.2150 in the night. Sellers became more active in the morning and led the major out of the sideways channel. According to the 4 hours chart the price continued developing well below the moving averages. The moving averages maintained their bearish slope in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2200, the support comes in at 1.2100.
MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. The RSI indicator held near oversold readings.
Trading recommendations
The pair remains in red figures. The nearest sellers’ target is the support level 1.2100.
Yen
General overview
The upbeat Chinese Consumer Price Index supported the US dollar on Thursday. Moreover, the greenback is well supported by a possible Fed rate hike action in March. However, this Friday's NFP report still matters.
Current situation
The undertone for USD is clearly positive. The pair extended its near-term upward trajectory on Thursday. After Wednesday's rally the price pulled back a bit. Buyers allowed sellers to reverse some losses. However, a fresh buying interest emerged at the daily open. Buyers began returning the lost ground slowly and steady and had reversed all the recent losses by the European morning. Bulls continued advancing north and reached 115.00 in the noon. According to 4 hours chart the price continued developing well above the moving averages. The 50-EMA crossed the 100 and 200 EMAs upwards. The 50-EMA kept pointed higher while the 100 and 200 EMAs were neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 115.00, the support comes in at 114.00.
The MACD histogram grew which is a buy signal. The RSI indicator was near overvalued territory, favoring a new move higher.
Trading recommendations
We believe the US will extend its upward impulse in the short term. A further extension beyond 115.00 is not ruled out. 115.50 is the next profit target.
AUD/USD
General overview
The AUD weakened amid a stronger dollar and disappointing Chinese inflation data.
Current situation
Sentiment remained negative on Thursday. Sellers maintained control and pushed the price lower. They moved slowly in the Asian session and accelerated in the morning. The AUD reached 0.7500 post European open. The major continued developing well below the moving averages which were all pointing lower in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA was below the 100-EMA and crossed the 200-EMA downwards in the same timeframe. The resistance is highlighted 0.7550, the support comes in at 0.7500.
The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI indicator is near undervalued territory, favoring a new move lower.
Trading recommendations
A firm break below 0.7500 handle would open 0.7450.
XAU/USD
General overview
Gold prices kept losing ground trading around 8 week lows in the light of speculations that the Fed will hike the rate next week.
Current situation
Gold opened on a weaker note on Thursday. Sellers remained in driver's seat and pushed the price lower in the night session. The XAU/USD pair extended its weakness in the European session and reached 1205 in the mid-European session. According to 4 hours chart the yellow metal continued developing well below the moving averages. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA downwards. The 50 and 100 EMAs pointed lower while the 200-EMA was neutral in the same chart. The resistance exists at 1210, the support stands at 1200 dollars per ounce.
MACD traded to the downside. RSI headed downwards which confirms the strength of sellers.
Trading recommendations
We assume that a daily close below 1200 would risk 1190 dollars per ounce.
Brent
General Overview
Oil prices dropped on Thursday amid the U.S. crude inventories growth which returned investors' concerns regarding a global glut despite supply cut agreement.
Current situation
Brent pulled back a bit during the Asian hours and reversed a minor portion of its Wednesday's losses. Buyers were able to return the price to the 53.50 region where the benchmark ran through fresh offers. Brent oil prices continued with a decline in the morning. Sellers returned the price below 53.50 and continued pushing the benchmark lower afterwards. Brent sharply fell in the noon and tested 52.50 dollars per barrel. The 4 hours chart showed that the black gold continued developing well below the moving averages which were all pointing lower. The 50-EMA crossed the 100 and 200 EMAs downwards and in the mentioned chart. The resistance lies at 52.50, the support comes in at 51.50 dollars per barrel.
MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. The RSI indicator remains within oversold readings.
Trading recommendations
A pullback is expected in the market in the near term. The price may recover a bit on profit-taking. The possible target is 53.50 dollars per barrel. If the downward pressure persists the price will reach 51.50 in the coming sessions.
DAX
General overview
European stocks traded lower ahead of the ECB meeting results. Energy sector shares decline and disappointing corporate readings reported weighed on stocks as well.
Current situation
DAX gapped lower at the open. However the benchmark failed to extend its downside direction. Buyers filled the gap post European open. The index continued trading in a familiar range afterwards. The price stayed around the 50-EMA in the 4 hours timeframe. The 100 and the 200 EMAs pointed higher while the 50-EMA was neutral in the mentioned chart. The resistance exists at 12000, the support stands at 11900.
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI consolidated within neutral territory.
Trading recommendations
The index now has the potential to post more gains. The main goal is the level at 12000. However, DAX needs to retake 11950 first.
NASDAQ
General overview
Wall Street traded flat in pre-market ahead of the ECB meeting and Non-Farm payroll report on Friday.
Current situation
NASDAQ remained flat on Thursday hovering above 5340 in the 5360 region. According to 4 hours chart the price broke the 50-EMA upwards. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance is at 5380, the support comes in at 5340.
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI remained within neutral territory.
Trading recommendations
An uptrend will start as soon, as the price rises above the resistance level 5380.
*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman