"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.01.02.2017EuroGeneral overview
The euro received support from Unemployment Change in Germany. The Unemployment Rate in the Euroland showed upbeat results as well. The euro extended its gains following the positive Q4 GDP. Moreover, the US dollar weakened after Trump’s top trade adviser accused Germany of currency exploitation.
Current situationThe Asian recovery halted at 1.0720. The euro returned to 1.0700 afterwards where the spot stayed during the European hours. The overall sentiment was neutral amid lack of any market movers in the European session. A fresh buying interest emerged ahead of the NY opening. The price jumped to 1.0750 and immediately broke the hurdle. The price bounced off the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs headed higher while the 200-EMA was neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0800, the support comes in at 1.0750.
MACD indicator remained at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI moved upwards.
Trading recommendationsWe expect to see renewed bearish pressure if the pair failed to retake 1.0750. A breakout below 1.0700 might force the EURUSD pair to resume its downward trajectory towards 1.0650.
PoundGeneral overviewThe UK data calendar was light on Tuesday. All eyes are on the Bank of England and its upcoming meeting. The BoE is to publish Manufacturing PMI while the Fed will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday. The Bank is likely to keep the rate unchanged.
Current situationThe pound came under further selling pressure in the early trades on Tuesday. The pair failed to sustain the Asian recovery and sharply fell during the morning hours. The sterling broke 1.2500 and tested fresh lows around 1.2400 in the mid-European session. The l.2400 level rejected the price after London's opening. The price moved upwards and reversed all its daily losses. The spot broke the 50-EMA upwards in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs kept heading higher while the 200-EMA pointed lower in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance lies at 1.2500, the support comes in at 1.2400.
MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. RSI indicator left the neutral area and moved downwards.
Trading recommendationsLast price action put on hold bears’ plans. Buyers have a chance to neutralize the downward pressure if they fixate above 1.2500.
YenGeneral overviewThe BoJ decision to leave the rate unchanged supported the yen on Tuesday. Moreover, a risk-off sentiment made the yen more attractive. Besides, the US dollar was under pressure after Trump’s decision to restrict immigration from 7 countries and his top adviser accusations towards Germany.
Current situationThe USD/JPY pair reversed early losses on Tuesday. The spot caught fresh bids around 113.50 amid some fresh US dollar buying interest during European morning trades. Traders pushed the US dollar higher reclaiming the 114.00 hurdle ahead of the NY opening. The spot found fresh offers around 114.00. The pair turned negative and eased towards the daily low at 113.00. The price bounced off the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs pointed lower while the 200-EMA was bearish-neutral. The resistance is highlighted at 114.00, the support comes in at 113.00.
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI remained within the overvalued territory.
Trading recommendationsIf bulls retain control over the market, we cannot rule out the chance that the USD/JPY pair would try to get to the level 115.00 after breaking 114.00. A break below 113.00 will show room for further downside towards 112.50.
AUD/USDGeneral overviewPrivate Sector Credit improved in Australia supporting the national currency. Meanwhile, investors are in wait-and-see mode ahead of Fed's meeting.
Current situationThe AUD/USD pair remained directionless staying around 0.7550 during the morning trades on Tuesday. A fresh bout of buying interest pushed the price higher ahead of the NY opening. The 50 and the 100-EMAs kept pointing higher while the 200-EMA was flat in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7600, the support comes in at 0.7550.
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. The RSI left the overvalued and entered the neutral area.
Trading recommendationsNo clear direction could be expected while the price holds within the current range 0.7540 - 0.7570. However, we expect a positive bias in the coming session. We recommend placing buy orders only if the spot fixates above 0.7570. The next bullish target is 0.7600.
XAU/USDGeneral overviewGold prices turned bullish on Tuesday when risk-off sentiment returned. The uncertainty around the new US administration kept weighing on the US dollar. There has not been a single day without a surprise Trump's announcement that affected the financial world since Trump took over the office.
Current situationThe risky mode faded away from the market as the positive statement strengthened. Fresh bids around 1200 dollars per ounce pushed the price away from the handle. Gold spot accelerated its growth rallying towards 1210 ahead of the NY opening. Gold prices maintained its recovery rally in the early US session. The resistance exists at 1210, the support stands at 1200 dollars per ounce.
The 4 hours chart showed that the price broke the 50 and 100 EMAs upwards. The 50-EMA acts as a support right now. The 100-EMA pointed higher while the 50 and the 200-EMAs were neutral in the mentioned timeframe.
MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI entered the overbought area.
Trading recommendationsThe price maintained its bullish tone in the 4 hours chart. If the pair fixates above 1205, the precious metal may continue its upmove in the short term. The potential buyers’ targets are 1210 and 1215 dollars per ounce.
BrentGeneral overviewOil prices edged lower in the early trades on Tuesday amid the US drilling activity growth. However, Brent turned positive and erased overnight losses when focus shifted to U.S. stockpile data.
Current situation Oil futures extended their neutral mode in the early trades on Tuesday. The benchmark traded range-bound-to lower during the European hours. An upward impetus pushed the price upwards ahead of the NY opening. The price tried to reclaim 55.50 in the early NY trades. Brent continued developing below its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 200-EMAs were neutral while the 100-EMA headed south in the same chart. The resistance lies at 55.50, the support comes in at 54.50 dollars per barrel.
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI stayed within the oversold readings.
Trading recommendationsThe bullish scenario prevailed on Tuesday. To trigger additional upward momentum towards 56.50 the price needs to break the level 55.50 dollars per barrel.
DAX General overview European stocks edged lower on Tuesday. Investors kept digesting key data for the Euroland and earnings reports. Energy and financial stocks were higher yesterday.
Current situation DAX index remained under pressure on Tuesday. The benchmark was struggling with 11700 during the day. According to the 1 hour chart the benchmark broke the 50-EMA downwards and tested the 100-EMA. The price continued developing well above the 100 and the 200-EMAs.The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 11700, the support stands at 11600.
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI stayed within the neutral territory.
Trading recommendationsWe prefer to stay bearish for now. The benchmark might extend its losses if it fixates below 11700. DAX is likely to test 11600 in this case.
NASDAQGeneral overviewWall Street futures opened in red on Tuesday. Dow sectors declined disappointing investors. Moreover, the fresh Trump's administration moves weighed on the stocks.
Current situationThe technical picture presented a slightly bearish tone. The price found support at 5100 and stayed around the level during the day. The resistance is at 5140, the support comes in at 5100.
The 4 hours chart showed that the benchmark tested the 50-EMA and stayed around it afterwards. The moving averages kept pointing higher in the same chart.
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI oscillator left the neutral area and entered the oversold readings.
Trading recommendationsThe overall outlook remains bearish, for decline towards 5060 support area.
*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services,
Alexander Kofman