MoneyOnComputer

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

21.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

The June USA inflation indicators were published last Friday. The main CPI index growth rate slowed to 0.3% m/m and accelerated to 0.1% y/y vs. 0.4% m/m and 0.0% y/y in May. This basic inflation level registered dynamics exactly in line with expectations (+ 0.2% m/m and 1.8% y/y). Obviously, the US price pressure is not clearly growing at the rate that would require the interest rates sharp increase, so the macro statistics has remained virtually unnoticed by the bulls within the dollar.

Yesterday the pair EUR/USD slightly corrected. Earlier the pair decreased. Traders sold the euro after the US inflation moderately positive data.

During the day the pair GBP/USD was trading in a flat. The pair EUR/GBP sales saved the British pound from the bears' "onslaught". However, the pair slightly fell.

After a slight growth during the day the pair USD/JPY was trading in a narrow flat amid the long positions profit taking in the world leading stock markets which restrains the US dollar quotations growth.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

There was not published any important macroeconomic statistics. The single European currency has been under pressure for the last three trading days and we expect some short positions profit taking. However, we cannot count on the euro significant growth.

Last week the ECB President Mario Draghi said that inflation would remain low in the short term and we may expect a moderate growth only at the end of the year. Low inflation is traditionally a negative factor for the currency.

Having broken the strong support level of 1.0925, sellers lowered the price by only 100 points. The low volatility indicates towards the imminent upward correction. An additional signal for the upward correction formation is in favor of divergence volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the resistance level of 1.0925.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

After a slight decrease there was a flat amid the UK and the US important macroeconomic statistics. On the one hand, the British pound could get support from the bond market as well as the pair EUR / GBP. The UK 10-year government securities are growing against the US Treasuries and the German bond yields which contribute to the British pound demand.

The British pound is consolidating towards the side levels of 1.5670 - 1.5550. There was the level of 1.5550 testing.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5670. After breaking 1.5670 the buyers may go to 1.5775.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Yesterday all Japan banks were closed for a public holiday and in this regard there was a sluggish trade. Given the fact that on Friday the world leading stock markets were closed in the negative area - there was a slight correction within the pair dollar / yen amid the profit taking on the carry trade transactions.

Having reaching the resistance level of 124.30, the price has formed a short-term consolidation. There is the volumes divergence amid the downward correction formation.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 125.50 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 127.00 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

22.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

The fact that Greece paid some of its debts had no effect on the market as it was fairly predictable. If we look at the picture from a broader perspective, it is clear that the words "the need to restructure" or even "the debt cancellation" have been recently heard too often. It is unclear where the new negotiations round on the financial assistance program will lead us. However, we can say with some confidence that it will be no worse period for the euro. The main negative factor is already found in the price and under favorable circumstances we can see the euro bears' enthusiasm growth. The dollar’s index decreased against the majors by the end of the day.

The pair EUR/USD was traded in the flat amid the US and Eurozone important macroeconomic statistics publication lack. The pair closed the trades with the euro growth.

The pair GBP/USD was traded in a flat. Earlier the pound had decreased amid the UK and the US negative bond yields increase.


The pair USD/JPY had increased amid the "risky assets" demand. However, the pair sharply decreased by the end of the day.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro zone and the United States did not publish any important macroeconomic releases and in this regard the debt dynamics and the commodity market were in the center of our attention. It should be noted that the German 10-year bond yields continue to decline relative to their US and the UK counterparts that is a "bearish" factor for the single European currency. However, the euro bulls were able to seize the initiative.

Now there is a short-term consolidation above the support level of 1.0790. Then the pair rebounded upwards and the resistance level of 1.1150 was broken through.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the support level of 1.0790.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British currency is in a flat of 1.5537 -1.5674 and in the short term we expect this range breakthrough. Fundamental factors indicate that we will see the downward trend development. Last week we received the UK and the US inflation data and its dynamics indicates the presence of demand for the US dollar besides it slightly weakened.

Buyers have not been able to break through below the support level of 1.5550 for a long time. All attempts were followed by the consolidation formation with the further rebound.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5550 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.5460, 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

After a long weekend Japanese banks began their work and in this regard, there was a slight volatility surge. It should be noted that the upward trend was stopped. On Monday there were significant gold sales which positively affected the world leading stock exchanges. When the gold fell there was a demand for markets' assets as investors saw the "risk appetite" growth.

After the level of 124.30 short-term break through the pair rebounded downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 124.30 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 125.50.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

23.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

There were two unexpected events in the currency market. Firstly, the pair euro/dollar suddenly showed its intent to recover from the lows and almost immediately gained 100 points. Secondly, the pair dollar/yen steady increase came to an end and quotes also rose up by nearly 100 points - but downwards. The reason is simple: the dollar bulls have decided to take profit, the last week its size was substantial as the US dollar took completely its advantage, expecting the Fed rate hike. It is important to note that it happened amid the practically empty macroeconomic calendar.

The pair EUR/USD had increased amid the short positions profit taking as well as the oil quotations moderate growth. However by the end of the day the pair fell again.

During the day the pair GBP/USD was trading at the levels of 1.5550 - 1.5670 amid the pair EUR/GBP quotations growth which are holding back the British pound.

The pair USD/JPY had increased amid the carry trade transactions closure which contributed to the Japanese yen demand as a funding currency. Nevertheless, the pair increased by the end of the day.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro sentiments were determined by the debt market dynamics which is now clearly on the "bears" side. There were the US secondary market housing sales published. The sales increased to 5,49 millions.

The short-term price consolidation at the support level of 1.0790 was followed by the upward rebound. The rebound was at the low volumes, but it allowed buyers to breakthrough and consolidate above the resistance level of 1.0925. The level of 1.0925 breakthrough was short-term and the pair fell below this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect towards the growth to 1.0925 and 1.1050 further on we expect a fall.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

There was the Bank of England monetary policy last meeting minutes published which traditionally causes the volatility spike. The monetary regulator meeting took place on Thursday, 9 July and this time we received quite contradictory macroeconomic statistics.

It is noted the average wage increase in the United Kingdom which is a positive factor for the inflation. The payments balance release for the first quarter points out to the strong negative effect of the British pound revaluation.

The downward rebound, formed after the support level of 1.5550 testing looks quite weak. Volumes are in reduced zone and the pair did not exit the range formed between the levels of 1.5550 and 1.5670.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.5670 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.5775.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The quotations decrease which we have seen is a correctional movement – traders partly took profits on the long positions after the long upward trend. It should also be noted that this correction does not look like the US dollar massive sales. The correction was also observed in the US stock market. By the end of the day the pair increased.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates above the resistance level of 124.30, it may continue the upward trend in the short term. The potential target is 125.50.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

24.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

The dollar index basket (USDX) had increased. The pair EUR/USD had decreased amid the oil market "bearish" trend. Nevertheless, the pair increased by the end of the day.

On the contrary, the pair GBP/USD had grown amid the Bank of England moderately positive minutes where the GDP second and the third quarter growth estimates were increased. The US Energy Department reported the crude oil inventories increase which would contribute to the quotations and will have a negative impact on the British pound as the UK is an exporter of hydrocarbons to the European Union. It should also be noted that there is a negative trend throughout the commodity market that will support the US currency. The pair fell by the end of the trades.

The day the pair USD/JPY had increased amid the June US secondary market housing sales positive release. The sales rose up by 3.2% in June compared to the previous month and it occurred despite the mortgage interest rates growth. American consumers feel confident enough, just willing to buy housing in spite of the credit growth. Then the pair consolidated.

According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became less than 26 thousand having fallen to 255 thousand. It is the minimum since 1973.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We should pay attention to the commodity and bond market dynamics amid the important macroeconomic statistics lack. The US Energy Department release pointed out to the crude oil reserves growth which puts pressure on the "black gold" quotations. Against this background we expect the Brent quotations decrease which will have a positive impact on the US currency as the oil price is denominated in dollars.

The euro two-day growth against the US dollar was stopped at the resistance level of 1.0925. The level testing was amid the low volumes and was followed by the breakthrough upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is going upwards. The bulls’ targets are the levels of 1.1050 and 1.1150.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The MPC last meeting minutes publication confirmed the fundamental mixed background. On the one hand, the wage growth is a positive factor for the medium-term inflation expectations. On the other hand, it was noted that the pound growth can negatively affect the British economy.

The National Statistics Office published the UK retail sales report for June. The retail sales were 0.2% m / m + 4.0% y / y.

Buyers were unable to reach the resistance level of 1.5670. the pair decreased and broke through the support level of 1.5550.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.5460 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 1.5390 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan has published the June trade balance report. At its last monetary policy meeting the Bank of Japan pointed out to the weak economic growth in the second quarter as a whole and the exports decline in particular. The same trend confirms the Central Bank of Japan foreign exchange reserves reduction which has traditionally been strong in periods of the trade deficit increase.

Having rebounded from the resistance level of 124.30, the price fell and is consolidating.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 123.50 breakthrough down the way to the support 122.40 will be opened.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc strengthened slightly against the US currency amid the dollar decline.

The absence of important macroeconomic statistics has highlighted speculations on the interest rate differentials.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9540. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9370.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

27.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

At the end of the last week the pair EUR/USD increased amid the pair EUR/GBP growth and amid the UK weak macroeconomic statistics. Then the pair consolidated.

By the end of the day the pair GBP / USD had decreased after the June UK retail sales publication - the index decreased by 0.2%. The pound fell after the retail sales weak data output. The data were disappointing. They negated the British retailers' consortium and the British Industry Confederation earlier studies. In general the news is not good, but the consumer spending trend is still growing. In fact, the retail sales showed an increase by 4% y/y while consumer confidence is at the 15-year high, real wages rose up by almost 3% y/y while the employment continues to rise. So consumer spending is not in danger. On the contrary, the United States pleased traders with the positive jobless claims. However the pair pound/dollar slightly corrected.

During the day the pair USD/JPY was trading in a flat amid the world leading stock markets sales which hindered the US dollar's growth. Nevertheless the pair decreased by the end of the day.

After the US jobless claims publication we observed the commodity market sales which is also a positive factor for the US currency as the raw materials cost is denominated in dollars.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Markit Economics has presented the France and the Germany manufacturing sectors business climate data. The France industrial sector business climate will amount 49.6 in July, the Germany industrial sector business climate will amount 51.5.

There is the production orders growth in both economies amid the euro devaluation which increases the products competiveness abroad.

The euro is still correcting relative to the US dollar, breaking through the resistance level of 1.0925 upwards. The pair is consolidating above this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1050. The next targets are the levels of 1.1150, 1.1260.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK retail sales release indicates that the British prefer to save more than spend. Despite the strong population revenue growth – the June sales decreased by 0.2%. The consumer demand reduction is a negative factor for the state economic growth.

The resistance level of 1.5670 testing was followed by the active prices decrease by 160 points. The support level of 1.5550 was broken through which now acts as a resistance.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the resistance 1.5550, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 1.5460 and 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Last week Japan disappointed investors with the June trade balance weak data while the United States is pleased with the secondary market housing sales positive report as well as the jobless claims reduction.

The downward correction which began from the resistance level of 124.30 stopped at the support level of 123.50. The price came up to the level amid the low volumes and went into the prolonged consolidation and a slight decrease.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 123.50 for a steady downward trend. The way to the mark 122.40 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

Last week US jobless claims release was quite encouraging. The primary and the secondary jobless claims reduction points out to the labor market positive trends in particular and in the economy in general. Against this background, the Forex market will re-live expectations about the federal funds rate growth in September which will support the US dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9750. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 0.9850.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

28.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was not able to strengthen its position against its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 96.56.

The pair EUR/USD had decreased despite the France and Germany PMI manufacturing and production sector negative macroeconomic statistics. Nevertheless the pair grew by the end of the day.

The pair GBP/USD was trading within the flat amid the UK bond yields decrease in relation to their US and Germany counterparts as well as the US new home sales weak data. However the pair increased on the yesterday’s trades.

The pair USD/JPY was trading in a flat amid the lack of demand for the "risky assets" as well as the US negative macroeconomic statistics. Nevertheless, the pair increased yesterday.

The US new housing market sales publication did not meet our forecasts: the transactions number amounted to only 482 thousand in June against the expected 546 million and 517 million in May. It has played the role of counterweight within the pair EUR/USD that put pressure not on the euro, but on the US dollar as well.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The last week euro zone and the United States economic data showed a clear divergence: the Eurozone consumer confidence index and the composite PMI weak releases amid the US real estate positive data and jobless claims reduction. Thus, there will be a steady demand for the US dollar in the short term.

The euro is recovering its positions against the US dollar. Its corrective growth is on the low volumes and has a target to test the resistance level of 1.1150.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1150 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.1050, 1.0925, 1.0790.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The downtrend changed to the upward movement. There are still active sales on the commodity market which is a positive factor for the US currency as the raw material assets cost is denominated in dollars. It should also be noted that the British currency traditionally negatively reacts to the oil bearish trend. Last week the Brent crude finished at the mark of $ 55 / barrel and the next stop will, possibly, be near the 53rd figure.

There was the resistance level of 1.5550 breakthrough upwards and trades closed at the level of 1.5572.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 101.85 breakthrough down the way to the support 101.50 will be opened. The resistance level of 1.5670 test is more likely to lead to the rebound downwards.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

We noted the "bearish" sentiments prevalence. The lack of demand for the "risky assets" contributed to the carry trade transactions closure that will cause demand for the Japanese yen. The negative trend is confirmed by the debt market: the US and Japan 10-year bond yields are reducing which is clearly at the "bears" hands.

There was the support level of 123.50 breakthrough which was followed by the very low volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the growth towards 123.50 further on we expect a fall to 122.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

29.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

By the end of the day the pair EUR / USD had increased amid the German 10-year bond yields relative to its US and the UK counterparts. The Germany data served as a powerful driver for the euro. The IFO Institute business sentiment index registered growth up to 108 points in July, exceeding expectations at the level of 107.5 and the June index around the level of 107.4. It was enough for the pair EUR/USD to get a powerful impulse and to start recovery from the recent lows.

By the end of the day the pair GBP / USD had strengthened despite the US durable goods orders positive macroeconomic statistics for June.

During the day the pair USD / JPY some growth amid the world stock markets sales which caused the carry trade transactions closure.

In June the US durable goods orders rose up by 3.4%, the index excluding transportation also rose up - by 0.8%. However, the main source of concern was the latest stock market crash in China where the Shanghai Composite has lost more than 8%. Traders believe that the China stock markets volatility can delay the US Federal Reserve possible rate hike as the situation is an additional threat to stability.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The main pair dynamics is determined by three factors: the bond market sentiments, the commodity market trend and the pair EUR / GBP dynamics.

There was the German 10-year bond yields growth on the debt market in relation to its US and UK competitors which supports some demand for the euro.

The Federal Reserve interest rate decision may affect the pair dynamics which will be published on Wednesday evening.

The upward correction within the pair euro / dollar consolidated its positions, breaking through on its way resistance at the level of 1.1050.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The growth targets are 1.1150, 1.1260.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Yesterday the main event was the second quarter UK GDP publication. The Bank of England pointed to an economic growth by 0.7% in its monetary policy last minutes. These data came out at the forecast level of 0.7% q / q and 2.6% y / y

The Federal Reserve interest rate decision can affect the pair dynamics which will be published on Wednesday evening.

The resistance level of 1.5550 could not stop buyers. The level breakthrough was on the low volumes and opened the way to the level of 1.5460 and 1.5390 testing.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect a rebound. The levels of 1.5460, 1.5390 are the rebound targets.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

There was the investors' risk avoidance in financial markets (the world leading stock markets sales) which is a "bearish" factor for this pair. Investors closed the carry trade transactions which contributed to the Japanese yen demand as a funding currency.

The Federal Reserve interest rate decision may affect the pair’s dynamics which will be published on Wednesday evening.

Before reaching the support level of 122.80, the downward trend reversed in the short-term correction. The resulting correction is on the low volumes and is aimed at the resistance level of 123.50.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After testing 123.50 we expect a consolidation. Then the price may go down. The downward targets are 122.40, 121.60.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

30.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

By the end of the day the pair EUR / USD had increased amid the long positions profit taking before ECB meeting. After another Chinese stock market collapse traders spread the rumors that the American central bank would not still raise interest rates. After the meeting results it was expected to hear something about new external risks to the US economy which would lead to the immediate dollar sales and the pair EUR / USD growth.

As a result the last ECB meeting confirmed its plans to change the rates this year that supported the dollar.

The pair GBP / USD had increased as well after the UK second quarter GDP publication. The final index is above the level of 0.7%.

During the day the pair USD / JPY was growing. On the one hand, "bulls" were supported by the “risky assets" demand. On the other hand, the Conference Board consumer confidence weak data put pressure on the US currency.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

There was the debt and commodity markets stabilization after a high volatility. In this regard, it was expected that the pair euro / dollar would be trading a flat up to the FOMC meeting outcome announcement.

It was expected that the US Wednesday Federal Reserve meeting results would be a little different from the D. Yellen two week ago rhetoric. Then the FED chairman announced the monetary authorities intention to tighten monetary policy at any meeting this year. The yesterday’s ECB meeting supported the dollar as the committee confirmed its intentions to change the rates this year.

Having broken through the level of 1.1050 downwards the price.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The MACD is declining.

Trading recommendations

We believe in pair’s decrease. The first target is the level of 1.0925. The next one is 1.0790.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The GBP / USD fundamental background is still mixed. Investors 'attention is directed to the June UK mortgage lending publication which was positive, exceeding analysts' forecasts. Above all, the market was waiting for the US Federal Reserve meeting results. It was expected to hear the same benchmarks that were announced by D. Yellen in Congress two weeks ago.

The trade is below the key resistance level of 1.5670. The price consolidation below the mark can lead to the short-term decline.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The indicator is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the price remains below 1.5670 the downward movement will be continued. The targets are 1.5550 and 1.5460. Shall the price break the level upwards and we will see the growth continuation.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan has published the June retail trade release. The wage level is the most important indicator for determining the retail sector demand dynamics. It was expected the data within the forecasted medians, but the results exceeded forecasts by 0.9% instead of the projected 0.5% after the previous indicator by 3.0%.

The market was waiting for the US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting results. Changes in rhetoric were not expected.


The lack of buyers’ support can lead to the strong price rebound from the resistance level of 123.50.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The MACD is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the growth. The growth targets are 124.30 and 124.70.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

31.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

Yesterday the US dollar was able to strengthen its position against its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 97.10. On Wednesday late in the evening there were announced the US Federal Reserve meeting results.

Monetary authorities have once again confirmed the labor market progress and they also noted the real estate market growth. It was also pointed out that inflation expectations have not changed compared to the last assessment and it is necessary to wait for more positive macroeconomic data to start the monetary policy tightening phase. At first it upset the market, but ultimately the US currency was set to buy again and the US dollar has strengthened relative to all of its main competitors.

The FOMC also pointed out that the federal funds rate first increase can happen in September. Against this background, the pair EUR / USD had decreased by 0.51% by the end of the day, the pair GBP / USD had declined by 0.03% and the pair USD / JPY had increased by 0.30%.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The dollar strengthened against the euro after the US Federal Reserve meeting results publication.

The jobless claims have unexpectedly grown to the seasonally adjusted 9,000 in Germany in July, it was reported a decline by 1000 in June, economists expected the unemployment decline by 5000 in July, and however, the labor market remains one of the strongest in the euro area. There was the second quarter US GDP report published. Investors focused their attention to the data that indicate the US jobless claims number.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a weak sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. If the price get below the Cloud we may get a sell signal.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The MACD is declining.

Trading recommendations

We believe in pair’s decrease. The first target 1.0925 is reached. The next one is 1.0790.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Commodity market reacted with the quotations decrease on the US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting results which is a negative factor for the British currency.

Investors focused their attention on the US GDP publication for the second quarter. The industrial production index which best determines this year business cycle dynamics in the second quarter showed a moderate growth. Investors' attention is directed to the initial jobless claims weekly report.

The resistance level of 1.5670 false breakthrough was followed by the prices active drop.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The indicator is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price remains below 1.5670 the downward movement will be continued. The targets are 1.5550 and 1.5460.



Yen (JPY)

The US Federal Reserve meeting results supported the dollar as a result it has strengthened against the yen.

There was published the June industrial production data, we expected a weak report which would put pressure on the Japanese yen. However, the data came out better than expected 0.8% against 0.3% earlier it was-2.1%. Traders focused their attention on the second quarter US GDP release. The US initial jobless claims report is also considered by investors.

The strong resistance level of 123.50 breakthrough opened the way for another resistance level of 124.30 testing.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The MACD is growing.

Trading recommendations

We support the growth plan. The growth targets are 124.30 and 124.70.



Franc (CHF)

The dollar consolidated its position after the FOMC minutes publication where it was noted that the rate would be increased after the labor market continued growth. Following the meeting, the interest rate has remained within the 0.0% -0.25%.

Credit Suisse says that the Swiss National Bank losses could reach 50 billion francs in the first half of the year because of the exchange rate, gold and government bonds changes. According to the data publication, the Swiss KOF leading economic indicators rose up to 99.8 this month from 89.8 in June whose indicator was revised up from 89.7. Analysts had expected the index growth by 90.3 in July.

Buyers managed to strengthen the strong resistance level of 0.9650.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9760, the next one is at 0.9850.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The MACD is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the growth. The pair may rebound downwards to the level of 0.9650. After that the growth to 0.9850 will be continued.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

03.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US currency continued its winning streak - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 97.60.

The pair EUR / USD had decreased amid the Germany and Spain inflation slowdown last Friday.

During the day the pair GBP / USD was trading in a flat amid the UK bond yields moderate growth relative to its US and Germany counterparts.

The pair USD / JPY increased amid the "risky assets" demand at the end of the last week.

The last week US second quarter GDP data came out slightly worse than the consensus forecast, but we can consider it moderately positive. The personal consumption expenditures main index for the second quarter increased by 1.8% which exceeded the traders’ expectations. The Fed uses namely this indicator as the consumer activity benchmark.

In general, the US dollar continues to behave as if the Fed’s rate hike is actually a solution. We should remind that the Fed noted the labor market improvement, but it was not more aggressive than expected when it came to the Fed's rate hike timing.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We expect bearish sentiment prevalence within the pair EUR/USD. The Germany retail sales have decreased by 2.3% from May till June, corrected for the inflation and seasonal variations, still they increased by 5.1% compared to the previous year. Economists had forecasted that the monthly value would remain within the flat. However, the retail sales positive trend remains the same, private consumption will continue to support the European largest economy growth. It is expected that the German economy will expand by 1.8% this year and 2.0% in 2016.

A short-term correction was formed. The potential correction target is the resistance level of 1.1050.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a weak sell signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. If the price gets below the Cloud we get a strong sell signal.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The MACD is declining.

Trading recommendations

We expect the decrease will be continued. The first target is 1.0925. The second one is 1.0790.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

During the day the British pound can show the quotations moderate growth. There was the UK securities bond market increase in relation to its US and Germany competitors. The UK and Germany bond yields once again exceeded the level of 131 bp which will put pressure on the pair EUR / GBP and support demand for the British currency against the US dollar.

According to the economic calendar, the UK Gfk consumer confidence index has fallen: 4 instead of 7, although it was expected 5.

For a long time the British pound has been trading below the strong resistance level of 1.5670. All attempts to break through above the level were followed by the prices rebound downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The first resistance is at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

The price is just above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The indicator is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price remains below 1.5670 the downward movement will be continued. The targets are 1.5550 and 1.5460.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The dollar was stable against the yen. Earlier the Japan data showed that household spending declined by 3.0% in June, confounding the projected decline by 0.5%, after the previous month increase by 2.4%. The data also showed that the Tokyo consumer price index rose up by 0.2% this month in line with the market expectations.

The maximum of 124.47 was updated, but bulls failed to consolidate above the level of 124.30 – there was a false breakthrough which led to the downward rebound.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The MACD is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The growth targets are 124.30 and 124.70. Shall the price fall it will go to 122.40.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The market is consolidating. Some optimism inspires more or less clear picture in the United States. The Fed noted the labor market improvement, but it was not more aggressive than expected when it came to the Fed's rate hike timing. The US second quarter GDP data showed an increase by 2.3% q / q vs. 2.5% q / q. The separate report showed that initial jobless claims amounted to 267k vs. 270k.

The pair USD / CHF tested the level of 0.9700 / 10, then the correction has started and currently the pair is under pressure.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9760, the next one is at 0.9850.

The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The MACD is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the growth. The pair may rebound downwards to the level of 0.9650. After that the growth to 0.9850 will be continued.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

04.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

This week the US dollar is being traded without significant changes in anticipation of important macroeconomic statistics. Investors are waiting for the US labor market Friday's data. The labor costs record low index in the second quarter raised questions about the Fed key rate hike in September. Thus, the US labor costs index showed the lowest growth rate in the second quarter at the level of 0.2% well below the forecast by 0.7%.

Previously, the dollar was supported by the Federal Reserve two-day meeting. The Fed noted the labor market improvement, but it was not more aggressive than it was expected when it came to the Fed rate hike timing.

In addition, we expect the euro zone important data. Economists expect the official data that will be published next will point to the Germany manufacturing industry growth production, but its slowdown in France and Italy that shows divergence in the euro area economy. However the data in Italy came out showed a growth to 55,3 from 54,1. Nevertheless the pair euro/dollar closed the trades with a decreased.

The pair GBP/USD also decreased. Earlier the pound traded without significant changes in BoE's meeting anticipation on the coming Thursday. At the same time for the first time the central bank will announce the interest rates decision and will publish its meeting minutes and the UK economy new forecasts.

The yen declined against the dollar amid the general demand for the US currency and the interest decrease in safe assets because of the stock indices strengthening.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro was supported by the euro zone consumer inflation strong indicators. Thus, the EU consumer prices rose up by 0.2% y/y in July while the core index showed an increase by 0.9% y/y against the expected 0.2% and 0.8%, respectively. In addition, the unemployment rate remained at the mark of 11.1%.

Buyers tried to continue the upward trend, but they were stopped by the resistance near 1.1050. The level testing was followed by an active rebound downwards on the increased volume. The rebound from the level of 1.1050 has allowed customers to consolidate below this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.0925 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0790, 1.0670.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The data publication has shown that approved applications for mortgage and consumer loans totaled 66.58K and £ 1.22 billion respectively.

The course has received previous support after the UK economy growth strong preliminary estimates. The second quarter data supported the trend set in the first quarter. So the UK economy showed a growth by 2.6% y/y and 0.7% q/q vs. 2.9% and 0.4% respectively in the previous quarter.

The resistance level of 1.5670 was tested for its strength last week. The false level testing was followed by the rebounds downwards. At the beginning of this level the pair decreased.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5550 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound target is the resistance level of 1.5670.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The statistics in Japan showed that the retail sales have fallen for the third time this year -by 0.8% in June after the January and March decline. Analysts had forecasted decrease on average by 0.9%. The consumer spending weakness increases the risks for the Japanese economy, the manufacturing sector is experiencing hard times, taking into the exports weakness.

The upward trend within the Japanese yen has stopped for a short time at the resistance level of 124.30.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 124.30, 125.50.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

05.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

The beginning of the current week was relatively calm in the currency market. The dollar continued to strengthen against the major competitors, continuing to enjoy the support by the Fed rate hike expectations. However the dollar slightly weakened on the yesterday’s trades.

Earlier the pair EUR/USD once again came under pressure, at the same time there was not any problem with the local growth drivers. The July PMI manufacturing activity index in the euro zone countries was mostly positive while the region index exceeded expectations and amounted to 52.4 against the expected 52.2. But it was not enough to strengthen the single European currency. Nevertheless the pair slightly increased on Tuesday.

Earlier the dollar got a new reason to grow. The personal spending rose in June more than expected, reflecting a growth by 0.4% against the forecast at the level of 0.3%. At a time when traders are almost convinced in the Fed rates raising until the end of the year, it was enough to trigger a purchases wave.

The pair pound/dollar closed the trades with a growth and the pair dollar/yen was trading in a flat.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro fell amid the dollar growth in anticipation of the Friday US government employment publication. Investors expect the data to be strong and it may lead to move the forecasts, relating the interest rates growth by the Federal Reserve at an earlier date. However the pair slightly grew on Tuesday’s trades.

The trade within the pair euro/dollar looks lowly volatile. The price reduction is on the lower volumes and reached the strong support level of 1.0925. Then the pair rebounded upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0925 and 1.0790.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Bank of England will announce its key interest rate decision on Thursday, the 6th of August and at the same time it will publish the meeting minute. Undoubtedly, the regulator tendency to increase the key rate will put upward pressure on the pair GBP/USD.

We can observe the pound decline against the US dollar amid the weak volatility and low volumes reduction. The price decline was close the strong support level of 1.5550. Then the pair showed an upward rebound.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5775.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The main driving force that influenced the dollar growth was the personal income and spending data which rose by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively while revenues have grown more than it was forecasted. The Americans incomes grow more than expenditures that indicates the consumption slowdown. This trend threatens the fact that inflation may remain low and investors wait for the Fed rate hikes. Nevertheless, investors regarded revenue growth as a signal for the consumption and inflation future growth.

The resistance level of 124.30 re-testing led to the upward trend reversal downwards then a consolidation was formed.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 124.30 for a steady growth.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

06.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

The market trades are rather sluggish in anticipation of new movement catalysts. The dollar keeps the overall positive mood ahead of the coming Friday labor market publication which may be defined in terms of the US interest rates timing and thus the US currency prospects.

The US currency was supported by the Federal Reserve System representative statement. The Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said the central bank may raise short-term interest rates next month.

The US issued the employment outside agricultural sector release from ADP. The data came lower than expected 215 thousand. The number of employees amounted to 185 thousand.

The euro fell amid the increased demand for the dollar. Greece reported that it planned to sign the bailout agreement until 18 August. Greece will carry out a regular payment to the ECB on 20 August and the same deadline for the third tranche agreement signing. The pair is trading in a flat after a decrease.

Earlier the pound fell amid the renewed speculation that the Fed can be tempted to increase the key rate in September. The pair pound/dollar slightly increased on the yesterday’s trades.

The pair USD/JPY has updated the highs and continues to maintain an optimistic tone with the overall demand for the dollar.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro fell amid the US dollar in the run-up to the US government Friday's employment publication. Investors expect the data to be strong that may lead to move the Federal Reserve interest rates hike forecasts at an earlier date.

The euro two-week rise against the US dollar has stopped and we can observe the support of 1.0925 breakthrough. Then the pair formed a consolidation and tested this level which is the resistance now.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.0925 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is e the support level of 1.0790.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The latest publication showed the UK construction sector slowdown. The business activity index in the sector fell to 57.1 in July whereas it previously set the four-month high at the level of 58.1. Analysts expected the growth rate to 58.5.

The British pound corrective growth, formed at the level of 1.5460 gave a signal for the downward rebound. The signal served the support level of 1.5550 testing. However the pair rebounded upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the growth towards 1.5670 further on we expect a fall to 1.5550, 1.5460.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The dollar showed growth on the increased expectations that in the context of the US economy improvements the Fed will resort to the interest rates increase in the coming months, possibly as early as September.

The correction was short after the resistance level of 124.30 retesting. Before reaching the support level of 123.50, buyers have reversed the formed correction up to the resistance level of 124.30 and broke it upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 125.50 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 127.00.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

07.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

This week the currency spent most of the trades in a lull. It is not surprising as we are approaching the end of the week where we expect the most significant releases and during the previous days traders just saved their strength.

The pair EUR/USD has recovered, responding to the US ADP data that did not meet their expectations. It turned out that it was created only 185 thousand jobs in the US private sector against the expected 215 thousand in July and 229 thousand in June. It undermined confidence in the dollar, especially in anticipation of the more labor market publication that is the NFP report. After all, if the employment level is unsatisfactory, it can erase all expectations about the possible Fed rate hike.

As a result, the dollar faced a sales wave against most rivals, but not for a long time. Shortly after the ADP report there was published the ISM US services sector activity index which in July rose up to 60.3 from the June's 56.0. It was quite enough to initiate the US dollar recovery against its major rivals. However, the dollar failed to maintain the leadership and strengthened only against the pound by the end of the day.

The Bank of England released its quarterly inflation report, the monetary policy last meeting minutes and delivered the current rate verdict. The BoE kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.50%.

According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became more than 3 thousand having reached to 270 thousand.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The Germany industrial orders rose up by 2.0% m/m and 7.2% y/y. The German industry rapid growth is connected with the cheap euro and also with the European continuing producer prices decline, though it does not eliminate the deflation threat.

The corrective rebound was formed which allowed buyers to test the resistance of 1.0925.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward bounce potential target is 1.0790.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Bank of England has published the quarterly inflation forecast and the last monetary policy meeting minutes, our expectations lie in the fact that two committee members voted for a rate hike. Also the Bank of England governor Mark Carney made his speech. Later NIESR released the UK GDP forecast for July. The BoE kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.50%.

For a long time the price has been consolidating in the side corridor levels: 1.5670 - 1.5550. The resistance level of 1.5670 was repeatedly tested for durability, but without a subsequent breakthrough. The support level of 1.5550 was broken through. The price fixated under this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.5460, 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US private sector new jobs insignificant increase data have supported the yen for a short time. However, the reports about the world largest non-manufacturing sector activity growth not only returned the pair to their original positions, but also raised it up to the new intraday high.

The long price consolidation below the resistance level of 124.30 was followed by a breakthrough. The breakthrough was on the high volume, it is highly probable the uptrend continuation.

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 124.30 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 125.50, 127.00.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar maintained its optimism against the Swiss franc on Wednesday after the US non-manufacturing sector activity unexpectedly strong data. The ISM non-manufacturing sector activity index was 60.3 vs. 56.2 pp in July.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9960.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9960.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

10.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

At the end of the last week the markets tended to consolidate ahead of the Friday’s US key data output, including the labor market report. As a result, the dollar fell slightly against the EUR and JPY and in dispute with the British pound it recorded a certain "profit".

The US Labor Department reported that the US economy added 215,000 jobs last month, instead of the expected 223000. There was created 231,000 jobs in June and the figures were revised from 223,000.

Among the pairs that demonstrated the maximum volatility we should identify only the pair GBP/USD where the US dollar was supported by the information indicating a certain extent of the British regulator monetary policy prospects. Last week the Bank of England left its key interest rate unchanged at the level of 0.5%, the fund bond purchases volume also was not changed, leaving it in the amount of 375 billion pounds and has signaled that it is still preparing to start raising interest rates, but only at the beginning of next year. As a result, the pair GBP/USD has declined more than 100 points downwards.

There were published the BoJ meeting results- the Japanese regulator has not changed its monetary policy parameters. The market reacted to this information rather quiet and the pair USD/JPY continued to form the side trend. Nevertheless the pair closed the trades with a decrease.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro remained within the side trend and slightly declined against the US dollar. The main decline was after the weak German industrial production and the trade balance figures publication. The Germany industrial volume fell by 1.4% in June. The market had expected a growth by 0.3%. While the country trade surplus unexpectedly fell against the expected growth.

Earlier the US dollar was supported by the initial jobless claims data which rose to 270K. The forecast median was 273K.

The short-term correction within the euro was formed that is consolidating below the resistance level of 1.0925. Then the pair broke this level upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.0925 breakthrough down the way to the support levels of 1.0790 and 1.0670 will be opened.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Last week the British pound fell sharply against the US dollar after investors learned that the Bank of England was planning to increase its key interest rate only in 2016. The pound has not changed its position after the UK trade deficit publication which increased to 9.18 billion pounds in June from 8.42 billion pounds in May.

The markets remain cautious ahead of the July US employment official report that suggested an increase by 223,000. The release showed a growth by 215,000.

Sellers have broken through and consolidated below the level of 1.5550, the level breakthrough was followed by increased volumes. Then there was a small price correction to the resistance level of 1.5550. Nevertheless, this movement was short-term and the pair tested the support level of 1.5460.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.5460 for a steady downward movement. The way to the marks of 1.5390 and 1.5300 will be opened after this breakthrough.




Yen (JPY)

General overview

The dollar grew against the yen before the US employment report publication. On Friday the Bank of Japan did not change the policy and kept the expensive stimulus program. The market had expected such a result, so its reaction was weak. Meanwhile, analysts suggest that the number of jobs grew by 223,000 in July and the unemployment rate remained at the level of 5.3 %. In fact the unemployment rate remained at the level of 5.3 % and the number of jobs grew by 215,000.

Having broken through the resistance level of 124.30 upwards, the upward trend within the Japanese yen has stopped. Little consolidation below the level led to the downward correction. The pair closed the trades below the level of 124.30.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 124.30 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 125.50, further then towards 127.00.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc has fallen against the US dollar. According to the data, the Switzerland unemployment rate remained unchanged at the level of 3.1% which coincided with the forecasts. Investors' attention was directed to the last week critical report and to the US labor market data. Analysts suggested that the number of jobs increased by 223,000 in July and the unemployment rate remained at the minimum level of 5.3% since April 2008. According to the published release the unemployment rate came out at the forecasted median and the number of jobs increased by 223,000.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9960.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9960.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

11.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

Last week the foreign exchange market trades were under the wait and see positions’ influence that investors have taken on the eve of the July US employment release, hoping to get fresh guidance concerning the rate increases time.

The June and May Non-Farms were revised for an increase, in general by 14 thousand and apparently, it strengthened confidence that the Fed short-term interest rates would be raised in September and caused the dollar full-scale purchases explosion. However, the "bulls" triumph was not long, very soon the US dollar came under pressure. At the beginning of the new week it was not able to maintain its achievements against the pound besides earlier the pair pound/dollar fell amid the UK negative data.

The euro remained on the "float" in the dispute with the US dollar despite the weak statistics that came from the EU leading economies. The euro negative activity amid the US data was short-term and soon the euro returned all its losses, ending the day with a profit.

After the side consolidation the pair USD/JPY rose on the US reports, but soon it fell down. Obviously, the change of mood within this pair has been provoked by the events in the US debt market where the "treasuries" profitability has fallen sharply after the employment report publication.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

According to the Bank of France forecasts, the country economic growth will increase slightly in the third quarter. According to the Bank of France companies’ activity survey in July, the French 3rd quarter GDP will increase by 0.3% compared to the 2nd quarter. The Bank of France previous survey pointed out that the GDP growth in the 2nd quarter was 0.2%. The Bank of France said that the manufacturing sector and the service sector business sentiment remained unchanged compared to June.

There was the strong resistance level of 1.0925 breakthrough upwards on the pair EUR/USD. Then the pair increased and the resistance level of 1.1050 was broken through.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.1050, 1.1150.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The first day of the week has passed in the absence of any important statistics. The market reacted only on the Federal Open Market Committee members Fisher and Lockhart speeches. Both members support the early rate hike at least twice before the end of the year. So it was expected quite harsh rhetoric. Investors are waiting for the UK labor market indicators which are scheduled for Wednesday.

The pair GBP/USD is consolidating above the strong support level of 1.5460. then the pair broke through the resistance level of 1.5550.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

When the price consolidates it may go downwards. The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.5550 and 1.5460.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The yen fell against the dollar after the macroeconomic statistics publication. The foreign economic activity results marked the surplus emergence in the June trade balance - +102.7 billion yen against the earlier 47.3 billion yen, but the current account balances reduction to 588 billion yen after 1880.9 billion yen in May.

There was the upward trend breakthrough within the pair USD/JPY. There is a short-term correction near the level of 124.50 that is playing the role of a resistance.

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 125.50 first after a consolidation. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 127.00.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

12.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

The week beginning was not successful for the US dollar. The US dollar fell against GBP and EUR, still it recorded quite insignificant "profit" against JPY. There was published the US economy important statistics and, probably, the US dollar decline can be related to the technical factors as well as to the grown doubts that the Fed will begin the policy tightening next month.

The euro sharp rise helped the deputy chairman S. Fisher comments. He said that the Federal Reserve would not raise interest rates in September while it is low inflation. The US Federal Reserve representative D. Lockhart also mentioned in his speech about the low inflation.

In response to these statements the dollar sharply fell down along the whole fronts. The pair EUR/USD and the pair GBP/USD have increased. Only the pair USD/JPY showed the dollar’s growth.

The fact is that the market considered the possibility of the Fed September rate hike almost as a settled issue. Now, when Lockhart excluded the word "September" from his rhetoric, the event no longer looks so certain. It is likely that the Friday's Fed data also influenced it. In any case, it would mean at least the dollar temporary weakening against most of its competitors.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The difference between the ECB and the Fed policy directions remains the main medium-term driver for the pair. The July Italy CPI was published which was expected to 0.2 y/y and -0.1 m/m. In fact, the data has not changed, confirming the traders’ forecasts. The ZEW Institute German current economic environment index was in the center of our attention. In August, the figure is expected to reach 64.5 against 63.9. In fact the data came out at the level of 65.7.

It is noted the resistance level of 1.1050 to be tested. The bulls failed to break it.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1050. After breaking 1.1050 the buyers may go to 1.1150.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

According to the BRC, the UK retail sales in the same stores fell by 1.2% y/y vs. 1.8% y/y in July. It was expected a decline by 1.0%. The UK average wage reports for June are of great interest as well as July jobless claims number changes for July. The news output is expected on Wednesday.

It was the resistance level of 1.5550 breakthrough within the pair GBP/USD. The pair is consolidating.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.5670 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5775 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese economic data showed positive changes in the money supply – the M2 aggregate in July increased to 4.1% y/y vs. 3.9% y/y in June and the M3 aggregate rose up to 3.3% y/y from 3.2% y/y. The equipment orders dynamics was less encouraging – it was recorded 1.6% y/y in July against 6.6 y/y in the previous period.

It is noted the pair USD/JPY growth after the rebound from the support level of 124.30.

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

After the resistance level of 125.50 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance 127.00 will be opened.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

13.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

The China Central Bank's decision was the main event that devalued the yuan. The US currency strengthened against all the major opponents in the light of this, still it was not able to keep the leading position.

The message that Greeks have reached an agreement with creditors and will receive assistance in the framework of the regular lending program caused European majors quite full-scale purchases which led to the US dollar decline against the euro to the end of the session and in the dispute with the pound.

The China’s decision to devalue the yuan has put pressure on the pound as it was considered it would be able to strengthen the disinflation pressure in the UK and to extend the low inflation period in the United Kingdom which leads to the raising rates transfer at a later date.

The measures taken by China have put pressure on the Japanese currency as well. Another reason to sell the yen was the Japan Prime Minister advisors E. Honda’s statements who said that if the expected GDP data pointed to the sharp decline in the second quarter there would be a need to deploy a new fiscal stimulus.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

According to the Bank of France, the France payments balance current account surplus has grown for June due to the foreign trade deficit reduction. The payments balance current account surplus amounted to 1 billion euro against 200 million euro in May. The trade deficit fell to 1 billion euro from 1.7 billion euro in June.

The euro managed to break through above the key resistance level of 1.1050. Due to this resistance breakthrough, buyers got the way to the strong resistance level of 1.1150 that was also broken.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.1260, 1.1450.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Taking into account bonuses, the UK average wage fell to 2.4% in June against the earlier 3.2%, but it was expected a decline to 2.8%. The number of jobless claims further declined than expected: -4.9K vs. 1.5K. The debate figure was revised downwards from 7.0K to 0.2K. The unemployment rate has not changed and confirmed the forecasts - 5.6%.

Buyers corrected the price to the level of 1.5610 on the low volumes. It was expected the given level testing but bulls did not test it.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates above the resistance 1.5670, it may continue the upward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 1.5775 and 1.5950.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japan monetary policy meeting minutes were published in the Asian session on Tuesday. We received the industrial production positive results, the industrial production volume increased to 1.1% m/m which is higher than the growth expectations up to 0.8%. The service sector business activity index came out better than expected: 0.3% m/m against the growth expectations up to 0.1% m/m while the index was -0.7% m/m last month.

The price consolidated above the support level of 124.30. However the pair fell below this level amid the weakened dollar. Now the mark of 124.30 is playing the role of a strong resistance.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 123.50. the next target is the level of 122.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

14.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar got under strong pressure on its main opponents’ part this week it had fallen against the euro, the pound and the yen. The reason was the optimism decline about the US rapid rate hike amid the Chinese yuan decline that continued to fall after its devaluation.

The pair EUR/USD raised slightly amid the European stock exchanges sales. Investors closed their long positions on the equity markets and transferred it to the bond market which supported demand for the euro. After a decrease the pair grew by the end of the trades.

By the end of the day the pair GBP / USD had increased amid the oil prices stabilization. The US Energy Department has reported the crude oil reserves reduction for the third consecutive week that contributed to the Brent brand consolidation. After an increase the pound also consolidated.

The rapidly growing opinions about the US rapid rate hike illusory prospects drove down the pair dollar / yen. The Japanese currency strengthened in the last session against the US dollar. However, the US dollar was able to neutralize some of the losses by the end of the trades with the changes support in the US government debt market where the "Treasuries" prices declined slightly after the initial growth. However, the pair closed the yesterday’s trades closed with the pair’s decrease.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

According to the July final report the consumer price index increased by 0.2%. A month earlier the index value has decreased by 0.1%. These figures coincide with the analysts’ forecast. The France consumer price index decreased by 0.4% in July compared with the previous month after a decline by 0.1% a month earlier. These figures coincide with the analysts’ forecasts.

According to the forecasts, the US jobless claims had to remain unchanged and fix 270 thousand claims. The data came out at the level of 274 thousand.

The upward trend reversed towards the correction. The correctional price reduction was on the low volumes. The pair fell below the support level of 1.1150, but then it increased again.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1150. After breaking 1.1150 the buyers may go to 1.1260.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The «UK housing prices balance indicator by RICS» rose more than expected for the last month. According to the report prepared by the British Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), the indicator (given to the seasonal fluctuations) was 44% compared with 40% the previous month. Experts expected the rate growth for the last month to 42%.

The United States provided the retail sales important data in July and the number of initial jobless claims. The retail sales data in July increased by 0,6% and the initial jobless claims came out less by 4 000 the forecasted median.

Buyers have broken through and consolidated above the level of 1.5550. The level breakthrough was on the low volumes, but it opened the way for the resistance level of 1.5670. Then the pair rebounded downwards and formed a consolidation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target are 1.5670, 1.5775.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japan economic showed the machinery and equipment orders reduction by 7.9% m/m in June while the strongest decline was forecasted - by 6.5% m/m. However, it did not affect the market.

We did not expect the US retail sales publication better than the consensus forecast. The initial jobless claims report was expected unchanged at the level of 270K. The release showed 274K.

The pair USD/JPY is showing a technical recovery from the minimum when the dollar turned downwards and fell against other major currencies. However, the trades are below the key resistance of 125.50.

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 125.50, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 123.50 and 122.40.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar index has fallen amid the Treasury bond yields sharp decline in connection with speculations, concerning the China measures on the yuan devaluation decline that will lead to the «deflation exports" that will force the Fed to postpone interest rates increase at least until December. According to the data, the Switzerland import and producer price index weakened by -0.1% m/m in June to -0.3% m/m in July and from -6.1% y/y to -6.4% y/y.

Investors focused their attention on the jobless claims report which is expected to reach the level of 270,000 but the data showed a growth to 274,000.

The continued price consolidation below the resistance level of 0.9850 was followed by an active decline by more than 200 points. The prices declined to the support near 0.9750. then the pair rebounded upwards and broke through this level upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9960.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 0.9540 may lead to a price rebound upwards.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

17.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

Last week the US dollar was able to compensate only some of the lost positions. The dollar was supported by the US economic data – the US July retail sales suggested that the US economy is reviving; it brings the Fed monetary policy tightening beginning. According to the Commerce Department, the volume sales rose up by 0.6% in July. The messages about the jobless claims were less optimistic - 274 thousand when it was expected 270 thousand, still it slightly disappointed traders.

The pair EUR/USD had decreased by the end of the day amid the long positions profit taking after the week uptrend. Investors focused their attention on the Euro zone GDP and its leading countries preliminary data. The forecasts assumed that the main economic indicator will grow by 0.4% q/q and 1.3% y/y after a 0.4% m/m, 1.0% y/y in the first quarter.

By the end of the day the sterling slightly increased. Earlier the pair GBP/USD had decreased amid the "black gold" market sales. The British currency is traditionally very sensitive to the Brent oil quotations changes.

The pair USD/JPY had increased amid the global equity markets correction which put pressure on the "safe haven" yen. Nevertheless, the pair showed a decrease by the end of the day.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Investors' attention is drawn to the euro zone second quarter GDP publication. The Germany economic growth accelerated amid the exports’ increase, but the France GDP remained in the flat, such differences pose a threat to the sustainable recovery prospects. The German GDP rose up by 0.4% compared with the previous quarter, the forecast was 0.5% and its growth amounted to 1.8% in annual terms. The German economy rose up by 0.3% q/q in the first quarter.

The corrective weakness, formed by the resistance level of 1.1150, has reversed upwards. The signal for the reversal was the resistance level of 1.1150 retesting. The trades closed below this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is cosolidating.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.1150 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.1260, further then towards 1.1420.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

At the end of the day the US and the UK 10 years government bond yields reached the maximum level the last trading week which is a "bearish" factor for the British currency.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission last week report will show the total “pure” position dramatic decrease for the pound sales.

A little before reaching the resistance level of 1.5670, the pound upward trend was reversed for the short-term correction. After a short-term consolidation the pair grew again.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.5670 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5775 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US and Japan government bond yields are increasing that is a "bullish" factor for the dollar as it increases the US assets attractiveness for institutional investors.

The world leading stock exchanges capital inflow forces traders to increase the carry trade operations through the Japanese yen as a funding currency. In this context, the yen will be under pressure that will have positive impact on the US dollar.

The upward trend within the Japanese yen was sharply reversed downwards, breaking through on its way the strong support level of 124.30. Now the mark of 124.30 is playing a role of the resistance level. There was a continuous consolidation formed below this level.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The trend is a down side. We expect the level of 122.40 testing soon. The level of 122.40 may lead to the price consolidation.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

It was expected that the US statistics would show the all published indicators positive dynamics. The July producer price index (PPI) was supposed to show a slowdown, still with the month growth by + 0.1% m/m after a 0.4% m/m in June, the industrial production release in the same month was expected with increase by 0.4% m/m vs. 0.3% m/m in June and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment preliminary index was expected with an increase over the August last period to the level of 94.0 from the previous level of 93.3.

The US dollar consolidated in the pair with the Swiss franc after its decline to the support near 0.9750. Earlier the pair rebounded from the resistance level of 0.9850.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9960.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to consider short positions with the first target - 0.9750. After fixing below the first target, the level 0.9650 will become the next one. The buyers need to break above 0.9850 for a steady growth.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

18.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

There was a multidirectional movement in the currency market. The chief troublemaker was the China Central Bank, it did not give any reason for the emotions surge and set the daily yuan fixing against the dollar almost without changes compared with the previous day, it has made it clear that the bank keeps to its stabilization promises.

By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had decreased amid the weak France, Germany and the Eurozone GDP data. The Eurozone and its major countries GDP assessment showed a growth, but it was worse than forecasted. The euro was supported by the Greece policy information plan.

the pair GBP/USD had increased amid the UK and the US negative bond yields decline. In addition, the impression was caused by the UK controversial employment report somewhat blunted and the pound rose up against the US dollar in the news absence that can add negativity. However the pair’s growth was short-term and the pair fell by the end of the day.

By the end of the day the pair USD/JPY had decreased amid the investors escape from the carry trade transactions which supported the demand for the yen as a funding currency. The Japan stock market has declined that slightly increased interest to the yen, the US shares increase allowed the dollar only to neutralize some of the losses.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The EU published its June trade balance. The data came out at the level of 26.4B.

The German 10-year bond yields are declining relative to their US, UK and Australian counterparts, making European assets less attractive to investors.

The resistance level of 1.1150 was tested twice last week. The repeated level of 1.1130 testing was followed by the active prices decline with the following bullish trend reversal. The pair is trading around the support level of 1.1050.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1050 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.1150, 1.1260.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The June UK weak labor market raise doubts on the monetary tightening prospects by the Bank of England in 2016. The UK unemployment rate in the second quarter rose up by 0.1% while the US unemployment rate has decreased by 0.2%.

The September USA rate hike expectations are intensified amid the positive economic data. In addition, the dollar is supported by the oil prices decline.

The resistance level of 1.5670 testing was followed by the pair rebound downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the consolidation around the support level of 1.5550 further on we expect a growth to 1.5670, 1.5775.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The second quarter Japan GDP preliminary data showed -0.4% q/q vs. 1.1% q/q in the first quarter and the forecast was -0.5% q/q. These messages did not evoke any emotions in the market.

On Wednesday the Japan foreign trade assessment will be presented - it is expected the exports increase and the imports reduction which is able to bring the trade balance deficit to the minimum.

The level of 124.30 breakthrough was followed by the reversal level testing. Now this mark acts as a strong support where the continuous consolidation was formed.

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

Currently, the price is trading above the support level of 124.30. If the pair breaks it we expect the decrease to 123.50.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

19.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar enjoyed a moderate demand - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trade at the mark of 96.83. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had decreased amid the Brent oil decrease which in its turn reduced the euro area inflation expectations. The pair GBP/USD had decreased by the end of the day amid the UK and the US bond yields increase. The pair USD/JPY has strengthened after the Japan GDP weak data output. The economic growth fell by 0.4% in the second quarter.

There was important statistics published. The UK consumer price inflation rose up by 0.1% in July compared to 0.0% in June and it was forecasted 0.0%. The United States published the building permits volume report for July at the level of 1.119 M (the previous value was 1.337M; it was forecasted 1.232M).

Investors should pay attention to the fact that the situation with the US federal budget deficit continues to improve year by year. The United States are fully committed to the budget deficit reduction. By the end of the financial year 2014/2015 is one month and a half. Over the past ten months the US budget deficit (seasonally correcting) has been $428 billion from October to July inclusively against $460 billion in the same period last year (-7% y/y). It is a supporting factor for the US dollar.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro fell against the US dollar. Earlier there was the US and Germany 10-year bond yields reduction which is a positive factor for the single European currency. It was indicated the price moderate growth as the oil "bearish" trend does not allow the EUR/USD "bulls" to rise too high.

Sellers have rebounded from the resistance level of 1.1150, thus opening the way for the level of 1.1050 testing. The downward correction is not supported by volumes and it is developing amid the weak volatility. However the bears broke through the level of 1.1050 downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to consider short positions with the first target - 1.0925. After fixing below the first target, the level 1.0790 will become the next one. Then the pair can decrease to the level of 1.0670.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The main event of the day was the UK CPI publication. The inflation is traditionally indicator №1 for the currency market and in this regard, there was an increased volatility.

More than a month the resistance level of 1.5670 has been holding back buyers. The price tested this level again on the yesterday’s trades.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.5775, 1.5970.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The course of the trade is determined by the world leading stock exchanges sentiments. The growth leaders were the Nasdaq high-tech index that indicates the investors’ risk appetite. In such circumstances, there appeared the demand for the carry trade transactions through the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

The July building permits weak reports in the US was reflected in the national currency. According to the data, instead of the expected reduction to 1.232M the index decreased to 1.119M, the previous data is 1.337M.

The pair USD/JPY has been consolidating around the support level of 124.30 for a long time.

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 123.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 122.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

20.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

At the end of the trades the US dollar gave divergent results. The main week event was the Fed meeting minutes’ publication, the market was guided by the economic data.

By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had decreased amid the number of the US new foundations as well as the "black gold" market sales positive releases. The Eurozone statistics did not publish anything to support its currency. The pair consolidated after the decrease.

By the end of the trades the pair GBP/USD had decreased. Earlier the pair increased amid the UK positive inflation. The UK price pressures dynamics report showed that the annual inflation increased slightly in July - the consumer price index (CPI) is amounted to -0.2% m/m, 0.1% y/y which was a pleasant surprise for traders.

During the day the pair USD/JPY was in the narrow flat of 124.10-124.50 amid the moderate downward trend in global equity markets and under the technical factors influence that restrained the US dollar growth. However the pair fell by the end of the trades.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The main event of the day was the US inflation publication. We expected the index increase to the level of the forecasted medians compared to the previous months. The data came out at the level of 0,1% that is less then the forecasted 0,2%. The US Treasury two years bond yields are moderately growing, so it was expected their high growth after the inflation release as traders begin to "lay in quotes" the US Federal Reserve first rate hike on September 17 this year.

The euro is correcting against the US dollar on the lower volumes from the resistance level of 1.1150. the pair is consolidating at the support level of 1.1050.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The bears need to break below 1.0925 for a steady downward movement. The way to the marks 1.0790, 1.0670 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK inflation release has shown the CPI strong strengthening. The core inflation rose up to 1.2% in annual terms and in this regard it can be concluded about the wages growth strong influence. Against this background, the UK/US inflation indicators are again declining which is a positive factor for the British currency.

Buyers once again raised the price to the resistance level of 1.5670. The level testing was followed by the previous highs update, but without the subsequent breakthrough. The pair rebounded downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the level of 1.5670 break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.5775, further then towards 1.5950.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japan and the US 10-years negative bond yields is a positive factor for the dollar as it increases the US assets attractiveness. In addition, we expected the US inflation growth compared with the previous month which will spur the two years Treasury securities growth and also may support the demand for the US dollar. Nevertheless the data came out less then the forecasted median and the dollar decreased against the yen.

For a long time the price has been consolidating below the resistance level of 124.30. The trading volumes are in the reduced area. By the end of the trades the price rebounded downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 123.50, 122.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

21.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

The Fed minutes put pressure on the US dollar. The dollar was sold against all of its major opponents which led to its decrease at the end of the day. The meeting minutes have not convinced investors that interest rates increase would be in September. The protocol content that noted fears, concerning the dollar growth, can have a negative impact on the inflation, an economic growth and foreign trade; it has significantly increased the doubts that the Fed will have to tighten policy in the short term. However, the pressure on the dollar was moderate. Investors focused their attention on the number of initial jobless claims week data which was expected with slight reduction up to 272 thousand from 274 thousand. In fact the jobless claims number increased by 4 thousand to 277 thousand.

The pair EUR/USD had strengthened after the US inflation moderately negative data. The July base rate remained at the level of 1.8%, still traders had expected it at the level of 1.9%.

By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had symbolically strengthened. The low oil prices held back bulls from the active offensive.

The world leading stock markets sales continued to put pressure on the pair USD/JPY which at the end of the day decreased.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The German 10-year government bond yields are declining relative to its US and the UK counterparts that indicate the European assets low investment appeal. The United States published the jobless claims report, which was expected with a slight reduction - up to 272 thousand from 274 thousand. The data showed an increase up to 277 thousand.

The support level of 1.1050 rebound sent the downward correction upwards. The immediate growth target was the resistance level of 1.1150 that was broken upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1420.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1260. After breaking 1.1260 the buyers may go to 1.1420.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK retail sales rose up in July – it is a clear sign that the consumer spending will continue to stimulate economic growth in the third quarter. The National Statistics Office said on Thursday that retail sales amounted to 0.1% m/m and 4.2% y/y in July. Meanwhile, the US published the initial jobless claims. The initial jobless claims number became more than 4 thousand having increased to 277 thousand.

There was formed the short- term consolidation above the mark of 1.5670 that is playing the role of a strong support after its breakthrough, besides there was this level the short-term breakthrough.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5950.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5670 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.5775, 1.5950.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The China instability with the oil prices sharp decline contributed to the US stock market sales. Against this background, it was expected the Tokyo stock market negative trend which will contribute to demand for the yen as a funding currency. Investors' attention was also directed to the initial jobless claims. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became more than 4 thousand having increased to 277 thousand.

The long-term price consolidation was below the strong resistance level of 124.30 that was followed by the prices rebound downwards and the support level of 123.50 breakthrough.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 122.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 121.60.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar fell considerably against the Swiss franc after the FOMC minutes publication somewhat reduced speculations about the September rate hike. The traders’ attention is directed to the initial jobless claims week report. The data showed an increase up to 277 thousand. According to the previous month revised data, the Switzerland trade surplus was 3,741 million francs compared with 3509 billion in July.

Bears broke through the support level of 0.9650.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9460. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9650, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target – 0.9540. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the levels of 0.9370 and 0.9280.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

24.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was sold off along the entire market, still the greatest its loss was against the euro and the yen. Obviously, the US Central Bank statements convinced investors that the September policy tightening is unlikely to happen and there are arguments to close positions that were opened earlier on the expectations, relating to the US interest rates growth.

The Euro zone positive news supported the pair EUR/USD. The Germany producer price index exceeded expectations, demonstrating the zero change in July on the month basis and compared to the previous year the rate reduction was -1.3%. In addition, last week the European Commission approved the financial aid third program first tranche to Greece from the planned 86 billion euros, planned for three years.

During the day the pair GBP/USD was trading in a flat amid the oil market "bearish" sentiment as well as the UK retail sales moderately positive statistics: the July growth was 0.1% m/m while it was expected + 0.4% m/m.

The Japanese currency has considerably strengthened its position against the dollar amid the latter major currencies decrease as the Fed is unlikely to change the interest rates in September. The yen was supported by the government bond yields and the stock market indices decrease as well.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The German consumers economic expectations have fallen for the third consecutive month to 16.6 points from 18.4 points in July, having added the GfK that despite the optimism decline; consumers are still waiting for the European economy growth. Meanwhile, the US and the Germany government securities credit spreads reduced yesterday which is a positive factor for the euro.

The upward trend continues its strengthening, having broken through the strong resistance levels of 1.1150 and 1.1260 on its way, now the price is trading above the latter level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1420, the next one is at 1.1530.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1260 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.1420, 1.1530.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK government bond yields are declining relative to its US and Germany counterparts, making the British assets low attractive for investors.

Sellers tried to return the price below the support level of 1.5670, but without the subsequent breakthrough. There was formed a short-term consolidation above this level and there is a chance for the rebound upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5950.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.5775 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5950 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The China stock market volatility is reflected in the Asia, Europe and the US equity markets which is a negative factor for the pair. Investors do not have "risk appetite" and against this background, we see the carry trade transactions closure and demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

After the support level of 123.50 breakthrough there was another strong support level of 122.40 breakthrough.

The price is finding the first support at 121.60, the next one is at 120.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 122.40, the next one is at 123.50.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 121.60, 120.40.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

Switzerland presented the trade balance that is the payments balance largest component. The index is: 3.741V 3.509V against the earlier forecast of 2.600V. The index that is above expectations indicates the bullish market.

The pair USD/CHF broke through the level of 0.9540. This level breakthrough has opened the way to the support area of 0.9460 that was tested.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9460, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9650.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target – 0.9370. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9280.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

25.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

The market is more and more confident that the policy tightening is not to be in September, but, moreover, it will happen in December or even in the early 2016. It caused the US dollar decline by more than 150 points against the euro and about 140 points against the yen. The pound neither decreased nor increased against the US dollar and neutrally closed the trade on the opening prices.

Yesterday by the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had strengthened amid the German government bonds yields relative to their US and the UK counterparts. The euro bulls can be supported by the euro area economic data, presented by the manufacturing and the European bloc service sectors activity index preliminary estimates.

The pair GBP/USD was in a flat of 1.5670 -1.5715 amid the oil market "bearish" sentiment. The UK economic data have shown the state finances improvement. The pair increased by the end of the trades.

The Japanese stock market decline put pressure on the pair USD/JPY which by the end of the day had decreased. In addition, the yen growth was supported by the US stock market decline and the US "treasuries" decrease.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Investors are massively closing the carry trade operations and go to the funding currency that is the euro and the Japanese yen. Now investors choose these two currencies as they have high liquidity and low interest rates. In addition, the German government bond yields rose up relative to their US and the UK counterparts last week that increases the investments attractiveness into the European assets and will support demand for the single European currency.

Buyers raised the price upwards, breaking through the strong resistance levels of 1.1420 and 1.1530 on its way. The resistance level of 1.1710 was tested then the pair rebounded downwards and closed he trades around the level of 1.1590. The trade volumes are in the increased zone.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1530, the next one is 1.1420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1590, the next one is at 1.1650.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1650, the next one is 1.1710.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

On the one hand, the UK energy sector and, on the other hand, demand for the US dollar depends on the Brent crude oil dynamics. The USA data s as well as the crude oil reserves increases. The Brent shows the downward trend continuation.

Buyers were able to break through and consolidate above the resistance level of 1.5670. However, after bears attempted to break through the level of 1.5670 downwards with the downward correction. Then the pair increased and tested the level of 1.5775.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5950.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair is close to the strong resistance level of 1.5775. If the pair breaks it we expect the growth to 1.5950.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Investors are escaping from the "risk assets" that will support the demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. Now we expect the "bearish" sentiment against the US dollar on the bond market: the US 10-year government bond yields are declining against the Japanese counterparts which is a positive factor for the yen.

After the support level of 120.40 breakthrough there was another strong support level of 119.20 break. The two levels breakthroughs were on the increased volumes, sellers are gaining strength.

The price is finding the first support at 118.40, the next one is at 117.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 117.80 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 117.00.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

26.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar opened the trading week in the negative area – the dollar index basket lost 1.5%, having reached its lowest level for seven months. The Asian, European and American stock markets have added impulse to the dollar sales. The US dollar was sold against all the majors; as a result the dollar continued its decline and recorded losses. The US dollar showed the biggest minus against the euro and the yen which were bought out not only amid frustration over the Fed policy outlook, but also as the refuge currency that was sold earlier in the transactions on the interest rates difference. However, when the stock market began to form reducing correction at the end of the trading session, the dollar got little support and was able to neutralize some of the losses.

The pair EUR/USD had strengthened amid the investors’ escape from the "risky assets". Nevertheless the pair fell by the end of the day.

The pair GBP/USD had increased amid the UK government bond yields increase. However by the end of the day the pair showed a sharp decrease.

The pair USD/JPY had declined. The demand reasons for the Japanese currency are similar as for the euro that is the carry trade transactions closure. This pair also changed the movement direction and corrected upwards.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The world has witnessed the capital escape from the "risky assets". The panic corporate bonds sales supported the demand for the single European currency as a funding currency. In addition, there was the Germany and the US negative government bond yields decline in the bond market which makes investments in the US assets less attractive that is also a positive factor for the pair EUR/USD. By the end of the trades the pair showed a rebound downwards.

The euro strengthened against the dollar by 340 points and now there is a corrective rebound from the resistance level of 1.1710 with the support target near the level of 1.1420.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1420, the next one is 1.1260. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1530, the next one is at 1.1590.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1530 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.1590.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Despite the fact that the Brent crude oil is trading below $43/barrel - the British currency does not feel discomfort and is gradually moving upwards. Yesterday the UK government bond yields increased significantly against the US and Germany counterparts, making the British assets attractive to financial institutions. Nevertheless the pair decreased by the end of the trades amid the dollar strengthening.

Having broken the strong resistance level of 1.5670, buyers actively continued to raise the price upwards on the increased volumes. The current resistance level is the mark of 1.5775. Having tested this level the pair rebounded downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5950.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.5775 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5950 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The world leading stock markets downward trend is gaining strength. The capital outflow is also observed from the emerging markets that led to the highly remunerative currencies sales. In this regard, investors are massively closing the carry trade transactions which contribute to strong demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. The debt market is also opposed to the US dollar. However the dollar strengthened by the end of the day.

After the support level of 120.40 breakthrough there was another strong support level of 119.20 break. Then the pair rebounded and broke this level upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 119.20, 118.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

27.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US currency strengthened against all of its major competitors at the end of the day and leveled part of the previous session losses against the euro and the yen. It returned almost all its losses against the pound and significantly strengthened. Such a turn of events was amid the fact that the China Central Bank lowered interest rates and reserve requirements, thereby assuring investors' willingness to take economic stimulating measures.

After the Monday and Tuesday global stock markets heated sales - it was already possible to observe the opposite trend on Wednesday. Demand for Asian, European and the US corporate bonds contributed to the short positions closure against the US currency. The US consumer confidence and new home sales positive data have increased demand for the dollar. Against this background, the trades within the pair EUR/USD have finished with the quotations decrease. The EU also presented the economic positive data, but they poorly supported the euro. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had decreased against the general sentiment within the dollar and in connection with the UK empty macroeconomic calendar. The pair USD/JPY is consolidating. Earlier this pair strengthened due to the fact that investors had stopped to take refuge in the safe haven yen.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The stock markets panic is gradually leveling which is a negative factor for the single European currency.

Meanwhile, the German and the US 10 -year government bond yields fell to the new multi-year low yesterday, making investments in the US assets less attractive.

After a sharp growth to the resistance level of 1.1710 the euro turned out towards correction. The corrective weakness reached the strong support level of 1.1420. Sellers managed to break through this level.

The price is finding the support at 1.1260. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1420, the next one is at 1.1530.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the support level of 1.1260 can lead to the price rebound upwards. The targhetra of the upward rebound will be the resistance levels of 1.1530, 1.1590.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK government bond yields are declining relative to their US and Germany counterparts, making investments in British assets less attractive to institutional investors. Secondly, the commodity market sales will support the US currency.

Buyers have updated the previous day maximum of 1.5805, but they failed to continue the bullish trend. The upward trend reversed in the short-term correction. The price broke through the support levels of 1.5775, 1.5550 and decreased to the level of 1.5460.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the downward movement will be continued now. The potential target is the support level of 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Now there is observed correction after strong sales in the world leading stock markets. Capitals are coming back to the stock market and are going from the safe assets - gold and bond yields. In this context, investors will open the carry trade transactions which will put pressure on the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

The US dollar is trading different directional. The price is trading above the support level of 119.20.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to the support level of 118.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

28.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

The Japanese and the US stock indices have grown, pointing out to the risk appetite increase. It supported the US currency and the US dollar solidly strengthened against all of its major opponents by the end of the day. The additional factor that increased the dollar popularity was the US economic data. The dollar index basket closed the trades at the mark of 95.21.

Two key factors contributed to the dollar growth. Firstly, the durable goods orders release was better than the consensus forecast - sales increased by 2% in July while traders expected decrease by 0.5%.

Secondly, there are positive factors in the debt market. During the day the US Treasury 10-years bond yields were increasing steadily upwards that contributed to the channel capital inflow into the US assets and ultimately it supported demand for the dollar.

Against this background, the EUR/USD pair trades ended with the quotations decrease; the pair GBP/USD had declined by the end of the day and the USD/JPY had strengthened.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Yesterday the German and the US negative government bond yields increased by 6 basis points. In addition, there was the second quarter US GDP second assessment published which was expected within the forecasted medians. As well as the number of jobless claims weekly report that was expected 274K against the previous 277K. the data came out at the level of 271K.

The euro sharp growth against the dollar was replaced by the no less sharp downward correction. The signal for the correction continuation served the levels of 1.1420 and 1.1260 breakthrough.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1420.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement potential targets are 1.1150 and 1.1050. If the price grows it will get to 1.1420.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK government bond yields are declining relative to the US counterparts. In addition, the moderately positive macroeconomic data output supported the demand for the dollar. The initial jobless claims were expected with decline to 274 000 against the previous 277 000. The release showed a decrease to 271 000.

The strong support level of 1.5640 has been broken through downwards. The price decline was stopped at the support of 1.5390.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5550.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5390 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.5200.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Panic sales in the world leading stock markets have stopped. Against this background, investors’ escape from the carry trade transactions has practically stopped. In this context, the "safe assets" such as gold and the Japanese yen were not in demand.

The second quarter US GDP second assessment can be revised in the positive direction against the strong macroeconomic releases. The number of jobless claims was expected to 274K against the previous 277K. In fact there was 271K.

The US dollar partially returned positions against the yen. The pair is going upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 120.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 119.20.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

Switzerland presented the report, indicating the country industrial orders volume in the second quarter: -2.4% vs. -4.8 which have been revised from -0.9%.

The Commerce Department revised the durable goods orders data for June upwards (to + 4.1% from 3.4%) which improved GDP growth economists’ forecasts in the second quarter.

The dollar sharp decline against the franc was stopped at the support level of 0.9280, but then it turned up towards the correction. The dollar reached the resistance of 0.9650.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9650, the next one is at 0.9750.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9650. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the levels of 0.9750, 0.9850.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

31.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

The American currency continued its winning streak at the end of the week – the dollar index basket closed the trades at the mark of 95.81. The Japanese, European and the US stock indices growth have added arguments for the concerns reduction about the world economic growth, but the US GDP strong data and other indicators increased the demand for the US dollar which further strengthened against major opponents. The second quarter US GDP second estimate was revised in the positive direction by 1.4% to the level of 3.7%. The US jobless claims number has declined by 6 thousand for the last week. Positive economic data once again led investors to think about the federal funds rate increase at the FOMC September meeting.

There was the world leading stock markets moderate demand during the day which also put pressure on the funding currencies that are the euro and the Japanese yen. In this context, the US currency enjoyed confident demand against its major competitors. As a result, the EUR/USD pair has finished the trading day with the price decrease, the pair GBP/USD had declined by the end of the day and the USD/JPY had increased.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

There was again the Germany and the US negative bond yields which makes investments in the US assets attractive. Investors are studying the Germany inflation data. The CPI increased to 0,0% from 0,2% that was earlier.

The euro corrective decrease reached the strong support level of 1.1260 that was broken downwards. The small rebound upwards was formed. The resistance level of 1.1260retesting was followed by the rebound downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1420.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.1150, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 1.1050 and 1.0925.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK National Statistics Office published the second GDP estimate for the second quarter. Most of macroeconomic releases pointed to the fact that there will not be revision in the positive direction, as the unemployment in the second quarter has grown by 0.1%. On the other hand, the United States revised the first GDP estimate by 1.4%.

Sellers have broken through two strong support levels of 1.5460, 1.5390.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.5300 for a steady downward movement. The way to the marks 1.5200, 1.5100 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japan retail sales rose by 1.6% y/y in July, still the growth by 1.1% y/y was expected. Last month the unemployment rate was 3.3%, which is 0.1% lower than in June and below economists' expectations by 3.4%. Household spending declined by 0.2 % in July with the price correction after a decrease by 2.0% in June. Economists had expected an increase by 1.0%.

The pair shows the dollar’s strengthening. The resistance level of 121.60 was tested.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going long with the first target – 122.40. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level of 123.50.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss GDP for the second quarter increased by 0.2% q/q and rose up by 1.2% y/y. The data was better than economists' expectations by 0.1% q/q 0.8% y/y. The private consumption growth was 0.3%, investments in equipment + 1.5%, Swiss exports fell by 0.2% in the second quarter.

The US dollar is recovering its positions, reaching the strong resistance level of 0.9650. This level was short-term broken upwards then there was a rebound downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9650, the next one is at 0.9750.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9650. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.