MoneyOnComputer

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

12.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

Last week the US dollar strengthened its position against its major counterparts amid the US 10-year government bond yields strong growth against its Germany, UK and Japan counterparts. Still then investors have begun to actively sell the US currency. According to the last FOMC meeting minutes the monetary authorities are afraid to raise the interest rates because of the US low inflation and the global economy slowdown. The labor market significant increase was noted not for the first time.

As a result, the EUR/USD trades ended the week at the mark of 1.1358. The reports that indicate that the global economy is experiencing difficulties put again pressure on the euro. The Germany trade balance results have not met our forecasts - the surplus was much worse, showing reduction up to 15.3 billion euros against the July 25.4 billion euros when it was expected to see 19.0 billion euros.

The GBP/USD ended its trades at the mark of 1.5308. The Bank of England meeting results have put strong pressure on the "cable". There was not anything surprising in the BoE decision - the interest rate remained at the level of 0.5%, still the Central Bank purchases fund amounted to 375 billion pounds.

The pair USD/JPY finished at the mark of 120.25. The price remained in the narrow side range and the day result was marked by a very slight advantage in favor of the yen.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US and the Germany government bond yields grew at the end of the last week which increased the investments’ attractiveness into the US assets and contributed to the dollar demand. The “bullish” sentiment prevailed in the European and North American stock markets which is also a positive factor for the US dollar. International investors are still inclined to the "risk appetite" which puts pressure on the euro as a funding currency.

The price continued its upward movement.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1325, the next one is 1.1260. The resistance is at the level of 1.1410.

We have a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards. The EUR/USD will grow until it is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is growing, the target is the level of 1.1410 now.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

At the moment the British currency is left without drivers for the quotations growth. Perhaps the inflation will remain below 1% until the spring of 2016. The inflation slowdown causes traditionally pressure on the Forex market national currency. In addition, the UK 10-year government bond yields showed a decrease in relation to their US and Germany counterparts after the MPC minutes publication.

The pound exchange rate continues its upward movement and almost reached the last resistance level.

The first support is at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The first resistance is at the level of 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

We have a confirmed and strong buy though the price has just left the Cloud. If it remains above the Cloud the signal will get stronger. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the pair is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The GBP/USD remains above 1.5200 that increases its growth potential. If the pair holds there it may grow to the level 1.5390. Shall the pair return to a decrease it will go to the level of 1.5200.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Macroeconomic statistics caused the US and the Japan government bond yields increase which shall support the demand for the US currency. Moderate demand for the "risky assets" will contribute to the carry trade operations increase through the Japanese yen as a funding currency which will also have a positive impact on the pair USD/JPY.

The pair remains in the corridor between the levels of 120.40 and 119.20.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The resistance is at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a weak sell signal. The price is above the Cloud still it does not mean that a decrease is over. The USD/JPY is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The MACD is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the level of 119.20 will be tested soon. Still the level of 121.60 remains the first target for a growth.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The CFTC published the weekly report showing the number of net speculative positions within the franc: -2.7K earlier, this week index was 4K. Investors focused on the US three-day summit results which began last week Friday.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9650, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 0.9540 first. The second sell target is the level of 0.9370.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

13.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

At the beginning of the week the macroeconomic background is once again in the dollar favor. As for the investors’ escape into the euro while the Chinese data is deteriorating, it may happen only when we have shock events or when the investors escape from the carry trade market.

The pair euro/dollar has increased. The French August industrial production showed growth by 1.6% against the growth expectations by 0.6%. Investors, however, ignored the French budget deficit decline to -87.7 billion euros against -79.8 billion in July and the Italian industrial production decline by 0.5% - while it was expected 0.3%.

The pair GBP/USD remained in a flat. The UK August trade deficit was 11.1 billion pounds against -10.0 billion and the previous indicator declined to -11.1 billion from -12.2 billion pounds. The UK construction sector fell by 4.3% against the growth expectations by 1.0%.

The dollar/yen was in a flat the whole Monday. The September import price index correction (-0.1% vs. -0.5%) and the wholesale inventories increase to the predicted level of 0.1% in August slightly supported the dollar.

The week started Japanese, the USA and Canadian holidays. The political component of the day was the Fed representatives Charles Evans and Lael Brainard's speeches. Evans supports the interest rate hike this year, Brainard is not inclined to raise the rates this year.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The Monday economic calendar was empty, the US and Canada have holidays, the trading volumes are very small. The political component of the day was the Federal Reserve members’ speeches. According to the Bank of France, the French August current account balance surplus was 200 million euros against the deficit of 400 million euros in July. The August services trade surplus was 900 million euros against the deficit of 100 million euros in July. The US August trade deficit amounted to 1.1 million euros against 900 million euros in July.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1325, the next one is 1.1260. The resistance is at the level of 1.1410.

We have a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards. The EUR/USD will grow until it is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is growing, the target is the level of 1.1410 now. A short-term bounce down to the level of 1.1325 is possible.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The market intensified rumors about the ECB readiness to postpone and to extend the QE program. According to Mario Draghi, the quantitative easing program works better than expected, still the inflation will likely fail to achieve the target with certain periods set by the indicator. The main reason is the "bearish" oil trend. The UK CB leading indicators remained unchanged: -0.3% m/m. Investors drew their attention to the UK employment report.

The first support is at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The first resistance is at the level of 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

We have a confirmed and strong buy signal, the price is above the Cloud. If the pair remains above the Cloud the signal will get stronger. The GBP/USD is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The pair will grow until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

Our first target is 1.5390. Shall the pair return to a decrease it will go to the level of 1.5300.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese yen was stable on Monday amid the limited trading volumes due to the US and the Japanese holidays. This week investors will focus their attention on the US Wednesday retail sales and the Thursday consumer prices are in search of fresh indications for the consumer spending strength. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan shall publish the Monetary Policy Committee last meeting minutes.

The pair remains in the corridor between the levels of 120.40 and 119.20.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The resistance is at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a weak sell signal. The price is above the Cloud still it does not mean that a decrease is over. The USD/JPY is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory now. The pair is in a flat.

Trading recommendations

The pair is in a flat. The direction is uncertain. The first growth target is the level of 120.40. The decrease one is 119.20.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

14.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The first half of the week showed calm trades. There was not published any important macroeconomic statistics. The Japan and the US banks have not worked because of the public holidays which caused the liquidity decrease and the players’ low activity.

As a result, the euro stayed in a flat, the British pound rose up by 29 points on Monday, still this growth was stopped by the weak Chinese trade balance data and the pair fell. The USD/JPY has decreased.

The US dollar has fallen amid the market expectations decrease about the rate growth in 2015. The New York Federal Reserve Bank president William Dudley even said about the probable negative rate introduction in case of a crisis. The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank governor Dennis Lockhart spoke about the possible December increase. Still, the oil significant decrease can pressure the currencies quotes that are against the US dollar.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Eurozone faces the deflation threat. The September CPI preliminary data showed the negative value at the level of 0.2%. The quotations showed a growth in the Asian equity markets the day before as well as the high-yield cross-rates growth which is a negative factor for the euro as a funding currency.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1325, the next one is 1.1260. The resistance is at the level of 1.1410. The price started its weak correction.

We have a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards. The pair keeps growing until it is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is in a flat, still our main target is the level of 1.1410 now.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Investors' attention is directed to the September UK inflation report. The UK monetary authorities have repeatedly said about the low inflation level in the medium term. The UK 10-year government bond yields which reflect investors' expectations about the September inflation declined by 19.5 basis points. One of the positive factors for the pound is the July unemployment rate decrease by 0.1%.

The first support is at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The resistance is at the level of 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390. The pound exchange rate continued its correctional movement.

There is a confirmed and weak buy signal, the price is above the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are crossing each other that might be a pivot sign. The pair will keep the growth pace until it is above the Cloud.

The MACD left a positive territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the situation does not change the level of 1.5390 will remain our main target. Shall the pair return to a decrease it will go to the level of 1.5200.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

There was no important macroeconomic statistics publication; the trades were set by the bond and stock markets. The US and Japanese government bond yields were expanding the whole last week that increases the investments’ attractiveness into the US assets. The investors' risk appetite is still preserved: the Chinese stock market closed the first half of the week with the quotations growth by 3.29%.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The resistance is at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a weak sell signal. The price is below the Cloud now. The USD/JPY is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory now. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is in a flat. The direction is uncertain. The first growth target is the level of 120.40. The decrease target is 119.20.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

15.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD finished the trades with the quotations growth amid the Germany and the US government bond yields decline. Earlier the euro decreased after the weak German business confidence index – the October indicator fell from 12.1 to 1.9 against expectations of 6.8. The European ZEW index fell to the forecasted value of 30.1 from 3.3 in September. Against this background, the pair continued upward movement.

By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD fell after the UK September disappointing inflation data. A small storm rolled across the UK market. The September consumer price index (CPI) fell down to deflation at an annual rate: -0.1% y/y. This is the first inflation negative annual rate for the last 55 years. The base Index (Core CPI) remained at the level of 1.0% vs. 1.1%. Retail prices declined from 1.1% y/y to 0.8% y/y (forecast 1.0% y/y). Even house prices have not changed: 5.2% y/y against expectations of 5.5% y/y. At the last trading day, the pair sharply gained weight.

The pair USD/JPY finished the trades with the quotations decline amid the "bearish" sentiment in the global equity markets. The retail sales in United States, which was 0.1%, which is below the expected 0.2%, also contributed to the decrease of the pair.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The ZEW institute weak release confirms investors' concerns about the leading euro-zone economy deflationary scenarios development. Meanwhile, the bond market is supporting the euro bulls: the German 10-year government bond yields are increasing relative to their US and the UK counterparts which increase the investments’ attractiveness into the European assets.

Bulls managed to break through the resistance level of 1.1410, but it is unknown if they are able to retain and develop this success.

The first support is at the level of 1.1410, the second one is at the level of 1.1325. The resistance is at the level of 1.1530, the next one is at the level of 1.1590. The price resumed its upward movement.

We have a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards. The pair keeps growing until it is above the Cloud

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair left the flat range and having passed the first target the level of 1.1410 rushed to the next stop – 1.1530.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound continues to show the downward trend. The inflation weak data disappointed investors and against this background, the pound is showing its weakness in relation to its main competitors. The currency market has been still expecting for the recent weeks that the Bank of England will raise the interest rates in the first half of 2016. Now, these expectations were completely leveled and investors begin to revise their forecasts.

The first support is at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The resistance is at the level of 1.5550, the second one is at 1.5670. The pound rate continued its upward correctional movement.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal, the price is above the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards. The pair will keep its growth until it is above the Cloud.

The MACD left a positive territory. The histogram returned to a growth.

Trading recommendations

The price keeps growing. We expect a short term rebound downwards, to the level 1.5460 where we believe the pair will return to the growth. It is good opportunity to long from this point. Our growth targets are the levels of 1.5550 and 1.5670.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The debt market dynamics confirms the demand for the US assets. The Japanese and the US government bond yields are increasing which is a positive factor for the dollar. The US currency is supported by the commodity market sales. The oil and industrial metals finished the day in the negative area that traditionally has a positive impact on the dollar quotations.

The price is finding the first support at 118.40, the next one is 117.80. The resistance is at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud now and the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards. The USD/JPY will keep falling until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory now. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair seems to set its direction. If the course remains unchanged we will see the pair at the level of 118.40. Otherwise it will return above the 120.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

16.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The dollar came under a sales wave in relation to its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trades at the mark of 94.19. After the Chinese inflation and the subsequent US retail sales weak data investors strengthened the opinion that even the December Fed rate hike would not take place. In addition, the US Labor Department published the initial jobless claims number which turned out 255K. It is better than forecasted 270K.

The pair EUR/USD finished the trades with a growth amid the US PPI September negative release. The Eurozone industrial production fell by 0.5% vs. -0.4% in August, but the overall dollar decline pulled the euro upwards. However, the pair showed a decrease last trading day.

By the end of the day, the pair GBP/USD had increased amid the UK August labor market positive data. The August unemployment rate fell from 5.5% to 5.4%, the last three months average salary has increased not by forecasted 3.1%, but still by good value of 3.0%. In the morning, there was a decrease, but in the afternoon, the situation has been leveled off.

The pair USD/JPY finished the trades with the decline amid the "investors risk appetite reduction." At the same time the yen does not have any internal support factors. The September engineering equipment orders volume fell to the preliminary estimates from 16.5% y/y to 19.1% y/y, the September producer price index fell to -3.6% y/y to -3.9% y/y while the new Japanese government once again confirmed that the QE increase would not happen. The US manufacturing index which showed a decrease-4.5 instead of forecast -1.0, also affected the pair.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Investors closed the carry trade deals which support the demand for the euro as a funding currency. The two–year US Treasury bond yields, which reflect the investors’ expectations about the Fed interest rate, are declining which deprives the dollar support. Moreover, the US and the Germany government bond yields greatly reduced on Wednesday which will contribute to the demand for the euro. Now the commodity market dynamics is not on the bulls side: the oil and industrial metals quotations reduction has been stopped which is a positive factor for the US currency competitors.

The pair showed multidirectional trades yesterday. The pair was falling the whole day and stopped at the American session. The pair lost 120 points and stopped at 1.3800.

The first support is at the level of 1.1325, the second one is at the level of 1.1260. The resistance is at the level of 1.1410, the next one is at the level of 1.1530. The price resumed its upward movement.

We have a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows horizontal movement, and the Kijun-sen is directed upwards. The pair keeps growing until it is above the Cloud

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The histogram is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is still inclined to grow. Shall the pair keep growing it will reach the level of 1.1530 soon. The decrease target is at the level of 1.1325.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK National Statistics Office pointed out to the unemployment reduction by 0.1% to the level of 5.4% and the average earnings increase based on premiums by 0.1%. On the other hand, the US reported about the PPI decline by 1.1% compared to the same period of 2014, which indicates the consumer prices decline. As a result, the US and the UK 10- year government bond yields began to back down.

The first support is at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The resistance is at the level of 1.5550, the second one is at 1.5670. The pound exchange rate resumed its upward trend.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal, the price is above the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is directed upwards and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The pair will keep its growth until it stays above the Cloud.

The MACD is in a positive territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair stooped its growth. If the pair breaks the level 1.5500 the growth will be continued. Otherwise it can return to 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese currency has been in demand for the last three trading days in a row amid the investors’ escape from the "risky assets". The global stock markets positions closure contributes to the yen quotations growth as a funding currency. The US inflation release shall support the demand for the "risky assets". The number of the US jobless claims was expected 270K against the previous 263.

The price is finding the first support at 118.40, the next one is 117.80. The resistance is at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40. The price completed the third support level and was not able to breakthrough it.

There is a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud now and the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards. The USD/JPY will keep falling until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory now. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the course remains unchanged we will see the pair at the level of 118.40. Otherwise it will return above the 120.40.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The US employment weak economic data have reduced the likelihood that the US Federal Reserve soon will raise the interest rates that fact led to the stocks’ increase. It also became known that the retail sales fell by 1.1% in annual terms after the August decline by 0.8%.

The pair continued its downward movement and broke through the support level of 0.9540 and firmly fixed below this mark, we do not see any correction signs.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9420, the next one is 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9650.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The first target is the level of 0.9420, the second one is 0.9370.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

17.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US currency was able to compensate some of the lost positions – the dollar basket index (USDX) closed the trades at the mark of 94.43. The US dollar found the support due to the stronger-than-expected US inflation report which showed a decrease to 255K against the previous 262K.

The pair EUR/USD finished the trades with a decline. The ECB representative Ewald Nowotny said that the ECB did not reach the inflation target. The regulator requires a new set of instruments. The euro zone released the September consumer price index and declared about the August trade balance changes, which turned out to be lower then expected – 11.2B against forecasted 20B. During the day, the pair was in a flat.

The pair GBP/USD had strengthened amid the EUR/GBP quotations reduction by the end of the day.

The pair USD/JPY finished the trades with a growth amid the US and Japanese government bond yields. According to the preliminary data the US Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment index was higher than expected and amounted to 92.1 against forecasted 89.0. The NAHB October housing market index was published alongside with the vacancies level and the August labor turnover.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Yesterday the debt market began to form a reversal pattern for the German and the US Treasuries 10-year bond yields. This trend continuation will increase a demand for the US assets. We cannot ignore the "investors’ risk appetite" growth. The traders’ attention is directed the US industrial production and consumer confidence publications.

The first support is at the level of 1.1325, the second one is at the level of 1.1260. The resistance is at the level of 1.1410, the next one is at the level of 1.1530.

We have a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen downwards; the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. That is possible “Dead Cross” formation. The pair keeps growing until it is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The price started its correction, still it intends to grow. If the growth is continued the EUR/USD will reach the level of 1.1530 soon. The decrease target is at the level of 1.1325.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Yesterday the US and the UK government bond yields increased in the debt market. Moreover, the US crude oil inventories publication supported the US currency. The traders’ attention is focused on the US industrial production report.

The pound continued its upward movement, beforehand it had corrected to the level of 1.5421.

The first support is at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The resistance is at the level of 1.5460, the second one is at 1.5550. The pound upward trend is stopped; the pair began a consolidation phase.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal; the price is above the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The pair will keep its growth until it stays above the Cloud.

The MACD is in a positive territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair stooped its growth. If the pair breaks the level 1.5460 the growth will be continued. Otherwise it can return below the level of 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US and the Japanese moderate bond yields increased in the credit market which increases the US assets investments’ attractiveness. The Nasdaq high-tech index was the growth leader in the US stock market that indicates the interest growth for the risky assets. That is traditionally a negative factor for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. Meanwhile, investors are studying the US September industrial production release.

The USD/JPY started an upward corrective movement. The price managed to break the resistance level of 119.20.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The resistance is at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud now and the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen is directed downwards. The USD/JPY will keep falling until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory now. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the course remains unchanged we will see the pair at the level of 118.40. Otherwise it will return above the 120.40.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar strengthened positions after the US Labor Department reported that the number of initial jobless claims fell by 7,000 to 255,000 from 262,000 the previous week. The US Commerce Department reported that the consumer prices fell by 0.2% last month that is in line with the expectations. Investors drew attention to the US industrial production report and to the consumer sentiment that is in search for economic recovery additional signs.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9420, the next one is 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9650.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The first target is the level of 0.9420, the second one is 0.9370.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

20.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The China GDP better-than-expected data decreased fears related to the fact that the Chinese economy may experience a hard decrease and pull the world economy down. Investors paid more attention to the GDP macroeconomic indicator and the European stock market trading wave started on the positive note as the US dollar is supported against the euro.

The market is awaiting whether the ECB begins to extend the existing measures in September to support the economy. The bears dominated at the market yesterday, the pair EUR/USD was decreasing the whole day.

The British economy positive development still allows "bulls" to keep the currency in the area of the earlier reached highs.

The Chinese positive news supports the US bond yields, which markedly fell last month amid the sharp expectations reduction, concerning the US rate hike. However, the yen is trading without any changes. The USD/JPY is in a flat now.

Relative to the US dollar, the Australian dollar is growing due to the quotations growth after the Chinese Statistics publication.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro positions look vulnerable amid the ECB upcoming meeting. The Governing Council member Benoit Ker said that the regulator was not going to solve any other issue besides the mentioned earlier. Meanwhile expectations regarding the quantitative easing program correction are increasing. The last Bloomberg survey showed that the number of respondents who expect the stimulating measures package to be to expanded, increased from 68% to 81%.

The pair is showing a downward correction. The decrease was stopped at the level of 1.1325.

The first support is at the level of 1.1325, the second one is at the level of 1.1260. The resistance is at the level of 1.1410, the next one is at the level of 1.1530.

We have a weak buy signal. The price is in the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen downwards; the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. We have a “Dead Cross” signal.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The correction is in progress. If the pair keeps falling we expect the level of 1.1260 to be reach soon. We believe the pair is under pressure till the ECB meeting.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound gained strong impulse last week after the UK labor market report which showed that the unemployment rate had fallen to the seven years minimum. The technical analysis gives a neutral forecast, still the bullish scenario is the preferred one. The UK Thursday retail sales report is in focus now. The report is expected to show a growth since August.

The first support is at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The resistance is at the level of 1.5550, the second one is at 1.5670. The pair is in a flat right now between 1.5420- 1.5520.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal; the price is above the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The pair will keep its growth until it stays above the Cloud.

The MACD is in a positive territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair stopped its growth. If the pair breaks the level 1.5460 and consolidates above it the growth will be continued. Otherwise, it can return below the level of 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US dollar is declining against the yen after a consolidation at the end of the previous two sessions. The dollar is waiting for the further consolidation period and can begin to rebuild its positions. The pair is still in the range and its movements to the lower bound are used as an opportunity to enter the market. However, bulls still face the lack of strong growth drivers: the Japanese investors’ activity continued to support the pair, but the yield spreads dynamics does not give cause for optimism.

The USD/JPY started an upward corrective movement. The price managed to break the resistance level of 119.20.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The resistance is at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a weak sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and the Chinkou Span now. The Tenkan-sen is crossing the Kijun-sen upwards. Two lines give a “Golden Cross” signal. The USD/JPY will keep falling until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory now. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair grows it will grow to the level of 120.40. If it falls it will decrease to 119.20.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

21.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The euro is still under pressure in the run-up to the ECB meeting. After the ECB meeting, the investors will wait for the Fed meeting results which will be held on October 27-28. The Fed officials give contradictory comments: some of them speak about the need to raise the interest rates this year, some of them want to change the rate when the USA economy is more stable and strong.

At the beginning of the week the pound was able to increase slightly amid the UK government bond yields growth relative to their US and Germany counterparts. The Bank of England governor’ speech supported the pound. McCafferty said that the rake hike was necessary and the hike would be gradual.

The pair USD/JPY is showing symbolic growth amid the moderate demand for the "risky assets" which put pressure on the Japanese yen as the funding currency. Also, investors’ attention is paid to the US API crude oil and the number of building permits publication.

The Australian Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Council last meeting (October 6) minutes noted that there was a correct decision to leave the rates unchanged at the October meeting. The Australian dollar decline supports the system balance change in favor of escape from the extractive economic nature.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The greenback continued to pressure its main competitors first half of the week - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trades at the mark of 94.97. The US dollar is supported by the US API crude oil reserves and the building permits number. The single European currency is still under pressure in the run-up to the ECB meeting.

The pair is showing a downward correction. The decrease was stopped at the level of 1.1325.

The first support is at the level of 1.1325, the second one is at the level of 1.1260. The resistance is at the level of 1.1410, the next one is at the level of 1.1530.

We have a weak buy signal. The price is in the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen downwards; the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. We have a “Dead Cross” signal.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair keeps falling we expect the level of 1.1260 to be reach soon. Shall the EUR/USD return to the growth it will go to the level 1.1410.



Pound

General overview

The pound supports the UK government bond yields growth relative to their US and Germany counterparts. The Bank of England governor’s speech affected the pair. The GBP/USD grew to 1.55 after his speech. McCafferty confirmed his plans to change the rate. According to McCafferty the lending companies term have been improved.

The first support is at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The resistance is at the level of 1.5550, the second one is at 1.5670. The pair is in a flat right now between 1.5420- 1.5520.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal; the price is above the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upwards movement. The pair will keep its growth until it stays above the Cloud.

The MACD is in a positive territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair breaks the level 1.5460 and consolidates above it the growth will be continued. The growth target is the level of 1.5550. Shall the pair return below the level it will go to 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The JPY market short positions are still at the low level despite the fact that the expectations concerning the Bank of Japan monetary policy easing increased compared with the previous month.

Technical indicators are neutral and point to the side dynamics continuation. The pair is between two levels: 119.20 and 120.40.
The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40a. The resistance is at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a weak buy signal as the price has just left the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen is crossing the Kijun-sen upwards. Two lines give a “Golden Cross” signal. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory now. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair stays above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 120.40. If it falls it will decrease to 119.20.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

22.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The major pairs continued to consolidate in the narrow ranges amid the lack of relevant data. The market completely ignored the published economic statistics. The euro zone improved lending conditions news was an exception which led to the short-term pressure on the US dollar. Apparently, traders are waiting for the new guidelines and they determined to wait when the ECB will announce its monetary policy decisions.

Investors liked the ECB lending survey results which showed that the quantitative easing program bears its fruits, improving the credit conditions. It could set up to the concerns decrease that the ECB would expand the bond purchase program. However, the euro interest has been short-lived and the euro was almost back to their original positions by the end of the day.

There were "cable" short-term purchases amid the Bank of England J. McCafferty harsh comments who said that the bank should start the interest rates rising now to get the interest rate gradual and steady growth. However, this rhetoric has supported the British currency for a short time. The pound showed a lateral movement.

The Japanese yen fell against the dollar. Obviously, the mood, connected with another monetary easing at the next BoJ meeting and the US interest rates increase is the main topic for the yen traders. The agencies polls show that the traders’ percentage who believe in incentives volume growing has been increasing. The pair stopped in the middle of the trading day then the price changed the direction to the downward one.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro has completely leveled the previous growth success against the dollar. The ECB representative Linde said that if necessary the ECB could expand the quantitative easing program. According to him, they are not in a hurry to hike the rate as the euro area inflation raises some concerns.

The pair EUR/USD continues to trade in the range, limited by the resistance near 1.1410 and the support near 1.1325.

The first support is at the level of 1.1325, the second one is at the level of 1.1260. The resistance is at the levels of 1.1410 and 1.1530.

We have a weak buy signal. The price is in the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen upwards; the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. We have a “Golden Cross” signal.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We wait for the ECB meeting results that may give us the clue regarding the ECB further plans. We still two ways the price to go: the level of 1.1325 if the EUR/USD decreases and the level of 1.1410 if it grows.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound has remained stable, although it is still under pressure. The Bank of England representative McCafferty said that the interest gradual increase can justify the monetary policy tightening in the short term. The Bank of England needs to avoid deviation from the course when making interest rates decisions; there is a risk that the inflation will be above the target level in 2017.

The first support is at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The resistance is at the level of 1.5550, the second one is at 1.5670. The pair is in a flat right now between 1.5420- 1.5520.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal; the price is above the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form “Dead Cross”. The pair will keep growing until it stays above the Cloud.

The MACD is in a neutral territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair breaks the level 1.5460 and consolidates above it the growth will be continued. The growth target is the level of 1.5550. Shall the pair return below the level it will go to 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair USD/JPY is consolidating its achievements in anticipation of the Fed representatives’ speeches. However, the current statistics do not support the dollar. Now traders expect the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen evening speech, hoping to hear hints about the interest rates increase. Traders hope the rate hike will be this year.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The resistance is at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a weak buy signal, the pair is above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen is crossing the Kijun-sen upwards. Two lines give a “Golden Cross” signal. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory now. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair stays above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 120.40. If it falls it will decrease to 119.20.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

27.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The euro is recovering after the Friday's decrease. The European stock markets decrease supports the single currency, which, however, is of corrective nature. In general, the euro is under pressure amid the weak IFO survey. The pair EUR/USD is trying to recover after the last week decrease, the decrease was triggered by the Draghi's statement.

The pair GBP/USD is trading in the quite narrow range near the important support. The October British Industry Confederation report can become a catalyst for a further movement. The report was expected with decline -8, but in fact, it turned out -18.

The yen increased, having corrected its losses against the dollar. The Bank of Japan representative Hamada said that as long as the Fed rate hike expectations put pressure on the yen, the Bank of Japan did not need the further monetary policy easing.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The Germany IFO institute business climate data were published yesterday. Traders expected business climate index to be 107,8 in fact it was 108.2. This indicator is closely correlating with the economic growth pace and is always closely monitored by traders. The industrial sector slight slowdown is offset by the service sector growth. Population revenues are noticeably increasing, the unemployment and mortgage rates are decreasing. These are ideal conditions for the construction sector. The September secondary housing market sales rose up by 5.7% compared with August.

The first support is at the level of 1.0925, the next one is at 1.0790. The resistance levels are 1.1150 and 1.1150.

We have a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen downwards; two lines are forming the “Dead Cross”. The pair will show the southern movement until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair rebounded from the Friday’s low yesterday. The EUR/USD reached the first resistance at the level 1.1050. If the pair keeps growing it will fly straight to the resistance – 1.1150. Shall the pair fall the target will be the level 1.0925.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

We expect the lateral trend amid the mixed news background. The UK 10-year government bond yields are growing relative to their US and Germany counterparts which increases the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets. Traders expected the support from the primary residence sales, still the index came out lower than expected - 468,000 against the forecasted 550,000.

The first support is at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The resistance is at the level of 1.5390, the second one is at 1.5460.

We have a weak sell signal; the price is in the Cloud now. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is directed downwards; the Kijun-sen is horizontal. The downward movement will be continued until the pair does not break the Ichimoku Cloud upwards.

The MACD is below its signal line in the negative territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the downward movement is continued the price will decrease to 1.5300. In case of a growth the level of 1.5390 will be the first target.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Bullish sentiments prevailed during the trading day. There was the "risk appetite" growth after the Mario Draghi’s statement that the ECB was willing to increase the incentive package at the next meeting in December. Such verbal intervention provoked the quotations growth on the Asian, European and North American stock exchanges. The carry trade operations increase is a negative factor for the Japanese yen as the funding currency. The commodity market sales also contribute to the dollar strengthening.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The resistance is at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a strong and confirmed buy signal; the pair is above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen is crossing the Kijun-sen upwards. Two lines give us a “Golden Cross” signal. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory now. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair stays above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 121.60. Otherwise we will see a decrease to 120.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

28.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD decreased by 0.3% amid the short positions profit taking. The pair GBP/USD finished the trades with the quotations decrease by 0.35% amid the September US new home sales negative release. The pair USD/JPY decreased by 0.35% by the end of the day amid the carry trade closure which caused the demand for the yen as a funding currency.

The morning course of the trades was determined by the debt and equity markets dynamics. Yesterday the credit markets German 10-year government bond yields rose up relative to their US and the UK counterparts, which is a positive factor for the single European currency. The world leading stock markets showed a moderate correction movement, however, demand for the "risky assets" is still preserved.

The main event of the day was the third quarter UK GDP release report. There was the third quarter service sector growth rate slowdown, this sector is the basis of the UK economy. According to the Markit Economics PMI data, the manufacturing sector also showed a decrease compared to the previous quarter. The negative factor is the state budget gradual reduction, which reduces the multiplier effect in the economy.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Yesterday the credit markets German 10-year government bond yields rose up relative to their UA and the UK counterparts which is a positive factor for the single European currency. The world leading stock markets showed a moderate correction movement. The US statistics was in the focus yesterday. The durable goods orders pleased traders with the positive data. The labor market upward trend contributes to the household spending increase. The September car sales increased in the domestic market

The pair euro/dollar tends to decrease. The attempts to form a low bottom are expected.

The first support is at the level of 1.0925. The resistance levels are 1.1050 and 1.1150.

We have a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen downwards; two lines are forming the “Dead Cross”. The pair will show the southern movement until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair keeps growing it will reach the resistance – 1.1050, the second growth target is the level of 1.1150. Shall the pair fall the target will be the level 1.0925.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The third quarter UK GDP release was the main event of the day. The trade deficit increase amid the British currency revaluation against the euro is traditionally a negative factor for an economy growth. However, that is not so bad for the UK economy. The unemployment level reduction and the average earnings growth, taking into account premiums make the household spending increase which eventually moderates out the mentioned above negative factors.

The pair tends to decline. The pair failed to break through the key resistance of 1.5390 and it is under pressure now.

The first support is at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The resistance is at the level of 1.5390, the second one is at 1.5460.

We have a strong sell signal; the price is below the Cloud now. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards. The downward movement will be continued until the pair does not break the Ichimoku Cloud upwards.

The MACD is below its signal line in the negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price breaks the level of 1.5300, the downward movement will be continued to 1.5200. In case of a growth the level of 1.5390 will be our first target.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

This week traders’ attention will be focused on the Fed meeting where the US interest rates decision will be made. The Bank of Japan meeting is scheduled for October 30 where the regulator will also decide on the country interest rate. Currently, the Japan economy is showing very weak recovery signs and the country inflation rate remains far below the target of 2.0%. If the Fed refrains from the interest rates raising, it could prompt the Bank of Japan to the monetary policy further easing.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The resistance is at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a strong and confirmed buy signal; the pair is above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen is directed downwards, the Kijun-sen is showing a horizontal movement. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory now. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair stays above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 121.60. Otherwise we will see a decrease to 119.20 and further to 118.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

29.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

During the day the euro rate was demonstrating a positive trend against the most world currencies after its decline the day before. Traders were expecting the US Federal Reserve decision about the monetary policy.

The Fed meeting was held on October 27-28. Analysts were sure that the regulator would keep the base rate at its lowest level and would delay the monetary policy tightening till 2016. Their assumptions were correct as the Fed did not change the rates. The FED meeting supported the dollar. Regulator hinted that the next rate hike might happen this December

In the context of some uncertainty investors prefer safer assets. In addition, investors continue to win back the US controversial statistics. Thus, the country durable goods orders volume decreased by 1.2% in September compared to August while analysts expected a decrease by 1.5%.

The Conference Board analytical company said in its turn that the US consumer confidence index fell to 97.6 points in October from the revised September figure of 102.6 points. Analysts predicted the index to be at the initial level of 103 points in September.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The Federal Open Market Committee statement (FOMC Statement) was expected with moderately aggressive tone, despite the weak economic reports for the last two weeks. The German GfK consumer confidence index was expected to decrease from 9.6 to 9.5 in September. Traders expected the September imports prices at 0.2% after 1.5% in August.

The Fed left the rates unchanged. Still the regulator may change the rate this December. The rate change will depend on the November meeting results.

The short-term correction from the support level of 1.1050 turned downwards. Sellers broke the level and fell further.

The first support is at the level of 1.0870, the next one is at 1.0830. The resistance levels are 1.0925 and 1.1050.

We have a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen downwards; two lines are forming the “Dead Cross”. The pair will show the southern movement until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair grows it will reach the resistance – 1.0925. Still we do not believe in a growth right now. We presume that the pair will keep falling after yesterday’s Fed meeting. The targets are 1.0870 and 1.0830.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The 3rd quarter UK GDP was only 0.5% against the quite weak forecast of 0.6% and a growth by 0.7% in the 2nd quarter. The US durable goods orders volume (Durable Goods Orders) decreased by 1.2% in September against the forecast of -1.1% and -2.3% in August, according to the basic indicator (except transport components), the reduction was 0, 4% against the neutral forecast of 0.0%.

The upward trend which began at the support level of 1.5100 showed reversal signals. The support level of 1.5325 and the rising channel lower bound of 1.5320 breakthrough were among these signals.

The first support is at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The resistance is at the level of 1.5300, the second one is at 1.5390.

We have a strong sell signal; the price is below the Cloud now. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards. The downward movement will be continued until the pair does not break the Ichimoku Cloud upwards.

The MACD is below its signal line in the negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair sharply fell at yesterday American session. The pair may return to the resistance 1.5300 for a while still we support the idea that the decrease will be continued. Our primary targets are 1.5200 and 1.5100.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The expected lateral trend resulted in a rather strong decline at the technical level of 120.40 due to worse-than-expected US September new home sales and the durable goods orders volume data. The stock market declined on Monday and Tuesday and as a result the market got the yen decrease by 82 points yesterday. The Bank of Japan intends to leave the current monetary policy unchanged. The Central Bank will make up a decision on this issue on the Friday meeting. Still the reason of yesterday’s pair growth was the FED decision that supported the greenback.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The resistance is at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a strong and confirmed buy signal; the pair is above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen is directed downwards, the Kijun-sen is directed upwards, both lines are forming a “Golden Cross”. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory now. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair stays above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 121.60. As an alternative scenario we will see a decrease to 119.20 and further to 118.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

30.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US Federal Reserve meeting has been already held and it's time to sum up results. The monetary authorities kept interest rates unchanged and pointed out to the December rate hike possibility. It should be noted that the FED has been promising to change the policy since June so it was not obviously a new event for financial markets.

Our attention was drawn to the UK September mortgage lending publication. The labor market positive dynamics (the unemployment reduction and the average earnings growth) with the mortgages interest rates decline point out to the positive data output. Against this background, the British currency gained short-term support.

During the day, the "bullish" sentiment dominated within the pair USD/JPY for two reasons. Firstly, the Asian trading session industrial production data were published that put pressure on the Japanese currency. Secondly, the PMI production sector decline with the factory orders decrease did not allow investors to count on the strong data output.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The FOMC again pointed out to the weak export, the number of new jobs decline and the low inflationary expectations. However, the US currency showed a powerful growth the previous day. Traders again continued to win back the divergence after a pause, waiting for the Federal Reserve and the ECB central banks actions.

The first support is at the level of 1.0925, the next one is at 1.0870. The resistance levels are 1.1050 and 1.1150.

We have a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen downwards; two lines are forming the “Dead Cross”. The pair will show the southern movement until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The resistance – 1.1050 is our first growth target. We expect the pair to keep falling. The targets are 1.0925 and 1.0870.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

According to the Ministry of Energy the US crude oil stocks again increased which may put pressure on the basic reference varieties price. The USA did not please traders with the last quarter positive GDP release. The index was expected to reach 1.6%, but in fact it turned out to be worse than expected having amounted less than 1.5%. The Great Britain, on the other hand, upset traders with weak data regarding the same indicator.

The first support is at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The resistance is at the level of 1.5390, the second one is at 1.5460.

We have a strong sell signal; the price is below the Cloud now. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are horizontal. The downward movement will be continued until the pair does not break the Ichimoku Cloud upwards.

The MACD is below its signal line in the negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

Though the pair returned to the resistance 1.5300 we do not believe it will grow much higher. We support the sell idea. Our primary targets are 1.5200 and 1.5100.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Apple company positive report with the FOMC "pigeon rhetoric" supported the US stock market and today we may expect the upward trend continuation. Demand for the "risky assets" will put pressure on the yen as a funding currency.

The price is finding the first support at 121.60, the next one is 120.40. The resistance is at 122.40, the next one is at 123.50.

There is a strong and confirmed buy signal; the pair is above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are horizontal. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory now. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair stays above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 121.60. As an alternative scenario we will see a decrease to 119.20 and further to 118.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

02.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

Last Friday the United States did not please traders with the third quarter GDP positive data. The index showed 1.5%0 with the consensus forecast of 1.6%. The Government statistics have recorded a personal income growth, still the household spending has fallen. The negative dynamics also affected the investments and net exports. Now, however, it is not necessary to perceive this report as pessimistically as investors "laid" in quotes the GDP growth slowdown.

We should carefully monitor the debt and commodity markets dynamics amid the lack of important macroeconomic statistics. The UK government bond yields have been growing for two trading days in a row regarding to their US and Germany competitors which increases the investments’ attractiveness in the British assets. The Brent crude oil can continue to decline at any time amid the world oversupply as well as the US desire to sell oil from the strategic reserve. The US reserves have 695.1 million barrels. The commodity quotations decrease has a positive impact on the dollar as the raw materials cost was denominated in the US dollars.

The Japanese 10-year government bond yields which reflect investors' inflationary expectations fell by 5 bp in September. Consumer spending is increasing amid the average wage growth; however, the current growth is not high enough to talk about the inflationary pressures increase. The low energy prices remain a major threat to the price stability.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro fell sharply, having lost more than 100 points in a few minutes when the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. The dollar rose after the decision to keep the monetary policy unchanged, moreover, the regulator noted that they would decide the further plans for the rates at the next meeting. In this situation, the euro suffered the most of all and fell sharply against the dollar, the pound and the yen. The data have shown that the November consumer confidence index, calculated by Gfk, came out at the forecasted level and was 9.4 while the previous figures showed 9.6 in October.

The first support is at the level of 1.0925, the next one is at 1.0870. The resistance levels are 1.1050 and 1.1150.

We have a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen upwards; two lines are forming the “Dead Cross”. The pair will show the southern movement until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The resistance – 1.1050 is our first growth target. We expect the pair to keep falling. The decrease targets are 1.0925 and 1.0870.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound increased to 1.5300 and updated the two week lows in the framework of decline that was provoked by the Federal Reserve statement. The Committee recognizes that the employment growth slowed and the inflation remained below the target value of 2%, still the question of a possible interest rate hike will be open in December.

As traders expected a more pessimistic turn of events the dollar has grown.

The first support is at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The resistance is at the level of 1.5460, the second one is at 1.5550.

We have a buy signal now as the price broke the Cloud upwards. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards. The upward movement will be continued if the pair stays above the Ichimoku Cloud.

The MACD is above its signal line in the negative territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the price keeps growing, it will go to the level of 1.5460. The decrease target is the level of 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The short-term bond yields also suggest that the December rate hike possibility is maintained. The two years bond yields increased by 9 pm while the 10 year bond yields rose up by 6 pm.

Earlier the market did not react to the US trade balance positive data. The publication showed that the US trade deficit narrowed to $58.63 billion in September, compared to $ 67.19 billion the previous month, which is less than the forecast of $64.90 billion.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The resistance is at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a weak and confirmed buy signal; the pair is in the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are horizontal. If the USD/JPY remains returns above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory now. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair returns above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 121.60. As an alternative scenario we will see a decrease to 119.20 and further to 118.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

03.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US reports showed that the consumer spending and incomes grew less than expected while the personal consumption expenditures price index has shown the biggest fall since January. The published US PMI in the manufacturing sector was better than expected - 50.1 vs the forecast of 50.0.

The statistics supported the pair EUR/USD having shown that the pre-consumer inflation justified the analysts’ forecasts, having shown 0.0% in annual terms. The basic consumer price index rose up by 1.0% y/y vs. 0.9%. The separate report has witnessed the euro area unemployment rate decrease to 10.8% against the September value of 11.0% and the August value of 10.9%.

The inflation report could cast a shadow on the Bank of England rate change decision in May 2016. If the report coincides with the economic growth forecasts decrease, the market will regard it as a "dovish" tone. The inflation is expected to grow to the level of 2% next year which makes a rate hike in May more possible. The October PMI showed a 55.5 against the expected 51.3.

The pair USD/JPY returned to its previous range at the end of the last week. The Bank of Japan decision to leave the monetary policy unchanged suggests that the Central Bank see the situation differently. The Japanese regulator avoids the monetary policy changes, keeping the QE program at the level of 80 trillion yens ($660 billion.), despite the further easing growing expectations amid the weak statistics.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro was near 1.1030 before the euro area business activity reports publication. The manufacturing activity index will be in the Europe and the United States spotlight. The ISM purchasing managers index will be closely studied, especially the employment sub-index as the market is monitoring the employment and inflation in order to understand what will be the Federal Reserve December decision. The euro growth may be restrained due to the ECB December further easing expectations.

The first support is at the level of 1.0925, the next one is at 1.0870. The resistance levels are 1.1050 and 1.1150.

We have a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen upwards; two lines are forming the “Dead Cross”. The pair will show the southern movement until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The resistance of 1.1050 limits the pair’s growth. We expect the pair to keep falling. The decrease targets are 1.0925 and 1.0870.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound has significantly grown, especially taken into consideration the euro decline. If we compare two banks that can potentially increase the rate we will see the difference between the Bank of England and the Fed rhetoric. The Fed maintains the hope of the December rate hike while the last month Bank of England reports tone was rather mild. The inflation report can cast doubt on the Bank of England decision. If it coincides with the economic growth forecasts decrease, the market will regard it as a "dovish" tone.

The first support is at 1.5390, the second one is at 1.5300. The resistance is at the level of 1.5460, the next one is at 1.5550.

We have a buy signal now as the price broke the Cloud upwards and stays above of it. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards. The upward movement will be continued if the pair stays above the Ichimoku Cloud.

The MACD is above its signal line in the positive territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the price keeps growing, it will go to the level of 1.5460. The decrease target is the support level of 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US dollar stopped the two day decline and regained some of its losses as traders are closing dollar positions. The European stock market was opened with a decrease. Markets reacted negatively to the weak China PMI, preferring safe assets, including the yen.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The resistance is at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a weak and confirmed buy signal; the pair is in the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen crosses the Kijun-sen downwards. If the USD/JPY returns above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair returns above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 121.60. As an alternative scenario we will see a decrease to 119.20 and further to 118.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

04.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The first part of the week was marked by the currency market sluggish uninteresting trade in narrow side ranges. One of the low volatility reasons was the lack of important economic data. Another factor that made traders wait and see was the US employment report which would appear in the coming Friday. In these circumstances, the dollar has grown up very slightly against all of its major opponents.

The Eurozone news has shown good results. The manufacturing sector last figures were revised in the growth direction, still it did not affect the European currency traders. The market's attention was drawn to the ECB President Draghi, who said that the level of monetary policy stimulation should be reviewed at the December meeting.

The British pound showed the most prominent multidirectional volatility among the majors, but also, like the other major currencies, was closed with a decrease against the dollar. The pound was supported by the UK manufacturing activity strong data – the PMI index rose up to 55.5 in October from 51.8 in September while it was expected to see a decrease by 51.3.

The pair USD/JPY was traded within the overall market sentiment and also remained in the narrow side range. The Japan stock markets Nikkei index decline put slight pressure on the dollar. However, the US dollar leveled these losses and was able to achieve a slight increase by the end of the day in the European and American sessions.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The market is still under the ECB's statements impression to continue easing policy at the same time the Fed is going to start the policy tightening. There was nothing interesting in the ECB President M. Draghi's performance yesterday. He said that the inflation must be neither too high nor too low; the further stimulation measures should be reviewed at the December meeting; he was also concerned about the emerging markets economic growth prospects.

The first support is at the level of 1.0925, the next one is at 1.0870. The resistance levels are 1.1050 and 1.1150.

We have a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen upwards; two lines are forming the “Dead Cross”. The pair will show the southern movement until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The resistance of 1.1050 limits the pair’s growth. We expect the pair to keep falling. The decrease targets are 1.0925 and 1.0870.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The demand for the pound turned out to be short lived, the strong resistance levels to which the pair jumped cooled down the bulls, in addition the investors are cautious on the eve of this week important events which could influence to the further cable movement. Traders wait for the Bank of England's meeting whose results will be known on Thursday as well as the US labor market report that is coming on Friday.

The first support is at 1.5390, the second one is at 1.5300. The resistance is at the level of 1.5460, the next one is at 1.5550.

We have a confirmed buy signal now as the price is above the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is directed downward, the Kijun-sen is horizontal. The pair will continue the upward movement till it stays above the Ichimoku Cloud.

The MACD is above its signal line in the positive territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price keeps growing it will reach the level of 1.5460 first. The decrease target is the support level of 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair remained in a narrow sideways. The greenback was supported by its own economy news and the grown Treasuries. There was a day off in Japan yesterday that is why the yen was traded under the external events influence and it is likely to remain in the formed sideways, waiting for the main event of the week - the NFP in the United States.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The resistance is at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a strong and confirmed buy signal; the pair is above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen crosses the Kijun-sen upwards. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair wants to test the level of 121.60. Still it has to break the level 121.30 first. As an alternative scenario we will see a decrease to 119.20 and further to 118.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

05.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

Investors continue to wait for the new guidelines. There was a steady growth demand for the dollar yesterday – the US dollar rose against the euro and the yen, the dollar recorded relatively neutral results against the pound at the beginning of the trades still it strengthened against the "cable" in the evening. The dollar was supported by the Janet Yelen speech. Now the number of traders who believe that the Fed will raise the interest rates in December is increasing and it supports the increased demand for the dollar.

The ECB and the Fed monetary policy divergence as well as the ECB President M. Draghi’s expectations pushed the euro for small-volume sales as the market was afraid of verbal intervention. M. Draghi's words did not put strong pressure on the single currency; according to his statements it will be necessary to revise the monetary policy stimulation at the December meeting. He sees downside economic growth and the inflation downside risks.

The British pound was under pressure from the dollar part. The unpleasant moment for the pound could become the UK service sector economic data. We expected the PMI index growth to 54.5 after 53.3 in September and, taking into consideration the market mood, connected with the probability of BoE "hawkish" statements supported the pound.

On Wednesday the Australian dollar strengthened amid the September trade deficit reduction and the retail sales steady growth. The RBA left the interest rate unchanged at the level of 2% at the Tuesday meeting, despite the strong decline expectations in response to the third quarter inflation moderate increase.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The pair EUR/USD was declining the whole day breaking through one support level after another. The reasons for this decline are both fundamental and technical. The US employment significant growth altogether with Janet Yellen speeches supported the dollar. As we know the European Central Bank monetary policy easing and the 50% chance of the December Fed rate hike are already accounted by the market.

The first support is at the level of 1.0800, the next one is at 1.0730. The resistance levels are 1.0870 and 1.0925.

We have a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen upwards; two lines are forming the “Dead Cross”. The pair will show the southern movement until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

As we expected the pair fell. The targets 1.0925 and 1.0870 are fulfilled. The new decrease target is the level of 1.0800. In case of a rebound the pair can return to 1. 0870.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

We expect the quarterly inflation report, the monetary policy decision and the Monetary Committee meeting minutes today. There will be the Mark Carney's press conference after all releases. Perhaps the Bank of England will indicate that market expectations regarding the rate changes became too soft, if it happens, the news can support the pound. In the case the pair may rise to 1.55. Kristin Forbes may join those who support the rate increase.
The first support is at 1.5300, the second one is at 1.5240. The resistance is at the level of 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

We have a confirmed and weak buy signal now as the price entered the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is horizontal; the Kijun-sen is directed upwards. The pair will continue the upward movement till it stays above the Ichimoku Cloud.

The MACD is above its signal line in the positive territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price keeps growing it will reach the level of 1.5460 first. The decrease target is the support level of 1.5300.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Demand for the dollar is based on expectations about the December Fed rate hike. The Japanese economic data showed the monetary base growth slowdown in October 32.5% y/y against the earlier 35.1% y/y when it was expected an increase to 36.2% y/y. This message and the Japan stock market growth supported the dollar against the yen for a short time. The market was waiting for the US session, hoping to get guidance from the US statistics and the Fed speeches.

The price is finding the first support at 121.60, the next one is 120.40. The resistance is at 122.40.

There is a strong and confirmed buy signal; the pair is above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen crosses the Kijun-sen upwards. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair wants to test the level of 121.60. As an alternative scenario we will see a decrease to 120.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

06.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The euro fell against the dollar, the yen and the British pound. Not only the US messages put pressure on the euro. The European bloc news also reduced the demand for the euro. The Markit service sector indicators last estimate showed the initial data correction towards an increase in the euro area and Germany as a whole. The October service sector purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to 54.1 from 54.2 and to 54.5 from 55.2 in the largest European economy. Accordingly, composite indicators were reduced, including also the manufacturing sector data.

The British pound was also sold against the dollar on the yesterday's trades, but in this case, the main factor was the pressure caused by the US economic data and the Fed governor statements. The UK economic statistics has given good results on the service sector activity that is the main economic field. According to the Markit Company, the UK service sector PMI (PMI) rose up to 54.9 in October from 53.3 in September when the forecast assumed that it would be decreased only to 54.5. This increase could signal that the 3rd quarter national economy slowdown could be temporary for the first time since June.

The pair USD/JPY continued to rise and has risen to the new intraday highs. Additional support for the dollar against the Japanese currency came from the US economic data and the Fed speech. Yesterday Japan did not publish anything important.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Yesterday the September euro area retail sales and the Germany industrial sector orders data was the most interesting news. The sales dynamics is positive, but it unlikely will support the European currency, taking into consideration that the market is definitely guided by the Fed and the ECB multi-directional policy. Technical factors can somewhat support the single currency as the pair fell to the strong support level.

The first support is at the level of 1.0800, the next one is at 1.0730. The resistance levels are 1.0870 and 1.0925.

We have a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards forming the “Dead Cross”. The pair will show the southern movement until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair stopped its decrease at the level of 1.0870 where it is trying to consolidate. We believe it will remain at this level till the tomorrow’s NFP. The further EUR/USD direction wholly depends on the news. The decrease target is the level of 1.0800. In case of a rebound the pair may return to 1. 0870.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British currency fell after the Bank of England cut its inflation forecasts without changing its monetary policy. The pound fell by 0.65% to 1.5282 against the US dollar. The inflation forecast was revised mainly due to the oil prices and imports fall, as well as the fourth quarter GDP growth and the first quarter of 2016 will be reduced.

The first support is at 1.5200, the second one is at 1.5100. The resistance is at the level of 1.5240, the next one is at 1.5300.

We have a confirmed and strong sell signal now. The pair is below the Cloud. The GBP/USD is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards. The pair shall decrease until it stays below the Ichimoku Cloud.

The MACD is below its signal line in the negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pound’s fall was stopped at the level of 1.5200. We expect a short-term growth back to 1.5240 or maybe 1.5300. The decrease target is the level of 1.5100.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan did not publish anything important yesterday. The pair continued its growth after the Jennet Yellen statements awaiting for the US labor market report which will be released tomorrow. The report is expected with good results for the US dollar. The Fed top manager speeches gave additional impulse for the dollar purchases.

The price is finding the first support at 121.60, the next one is 120.40. The resistance is at 122.40.

There is a strong and confirmed buy signal; the pair is above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen crosses the Kijun-sen upwards. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair continued its growth. The growth target is the point of 122.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

09.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The whole last week the dollar was in demand and has increased. The pound was an outsider last week, it fell against the dollar and other majors after it became clear that the Bank of England would not soon increase the interest rates.

The US currency strengthened against the yen amid the growing expectations about the US policy tightening. The pair was under the US statistics influence. There was not so much statistical data, the last week unemployment benefits information pointed to the jobless claims increase by 16 thousand to 276 thousand which was worse the expected 260 thousand. But it did not upset the market, because this level is attesting the labor market improvement. The NFP came out better then expected. That again supported the dollar. The data came higher than expected 185 thousand. The number of employees amounted to 271 thousand.

The dollar suffered slight losses within the USD/JPY that were caused, obviously, by the technical factors, which provided support to the European currency at the strong support levels. The Fed top management speeches had little impact on the market events as the most speeches did not affect the monetary policy topic, but the banking system regulatory issues. However, the Atlanta Fed President Lockhart D. allowed himself some hints regarding the December interest rates increase, saying that there will be more reasons to increase the rate on the eve of the December.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro area consumer prices fell by 0.1% in September, but in general it showed zero dynamics in October, despite the asset purchase program worth 60 billion euros per month which the ECB has launched 7 months ago to revitalize the inflation growth. The Germany manufacturing sector orders have also showed the third month decline in a row. The weak data reinforced concerns about the China slowdown and other key emerging markets decline started to have a negative impact on the European largest economy.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0730, the next one is 1.0630. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0800, the next one is at 1.0925.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The NFP came out with better than the forecast results. That news supported the dollar. The NFP gave the pair an additional impetus downwards. The first downward movement target is 1.0630. Still pullbacks towards 1.0800 are possible.



Pound (GBP)

General Overview

The "cable" has fallen against all of its major opponents after the BoE broke investors' hopes for an early policy tightening that supported the pound in recent years. The Bank of England left the key rates unchanged at the level of 0.5% and the immutability securities purchase fund worth $375 billion pounds. The pound fell after the regulator comments that signaled that the UK monetary policy tightening necessity has decreased amid the global economy deterioration until mid-2016 and perhaps until the beginning of 2017.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5040, the next one is 1.4970. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The last week news background sent a pound to a knock-down. The pair fell from the level of 1.5400, breaking several levels on its way. After such a strong fall we expect a pullback and a consolidation. The possible rebound targets are the levels of 1.5100, 1.5150 and 1.5200. The southern movement target is 1.4970.



Yen (JPY)

General Overview

The pair continued its growth and showed small increase to the previous highs by the end of the day. The dollar keeps supporting the pair when it got support amid the positive releases after the regulator's statements about the US possible monetary policy tightening. The BoJ governor H. Kuroda said that the central bank would examine the economic changes and would make the optimal decisions at each meeting in order to achieve the inflation of 2% as soon as possible. It sounded like the willingness to increase the quantitative easing if necessary that put pressure on the yen.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The dollar within the USD/JPY is growing. The growth target is the level of 123.80, still we do not exclude a consolidation and rebounds down to the levels of 122.40 and 121.30.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

10.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The European currency declined amid the German weak macroeconomic news and the overseas different statistics. Now the chances of the US December monetary policy tightening are inexorably growing. One of the main Fed rate hike conditions is the labor market stable state. The US dollar can reach the price parity with the European currency in the short term. The Germany published the imports, exports and trade balance data on Monday which amounted 3,6%, 2,6% and -0.740М. Amid these data the euro slightly strengthened.

The pound came under the massive sales after the industrial production report publication. The pound fell by 0.2% in September. A sum of the US labor market and unemployment statistics had a bombshell effect. The UK and the US calendars were empty on Monday. Thus investors had to focus their attention on technical factors. By the end of the day the pound increased.

On Friday the Japanese currency also came under pressure. The US News has been published and it was the main reason of demand for the US dollar. Nothing important happened in Japan. On Monday early in the morning it became known that the wages level rose up by 0.6% amid the lower forecasts. However, it was not clearly enough for a substantial demand for the Japanese currency. Only by the end of the day the pair slightly decreased.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro decreased after the US labor market report publication. The price was under pressure when the October report had showed that the US economy had been able to create 271K new jobs against the September growth by 137K. In addition, the unemployment rate fell to 5.0%. The euro became the most vulnerable currency after this report publication.

The euro three-week decline against the US dollar found a support at the level of 1.0730. There was a short-term correction from the level. However the pair could not grow above the level of 1.0800.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0730, the next one is 1.0630. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0800, the next one is at 1.0925.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.0800 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support level of 1.0630.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound showed a growth on the Monday trades. Both the UK industrial production mixed results and demand for the dollar put pressure on the pound lat week. Earlier the pound came under pressure after the Bank of England Mark Carney speech who rejected to comment the rate hike this year possibility. The US employment data only added fuel to the fire, having strengthened the dollar against other currencies.

The price reduction was followed by the strong support level of 1.5100 breakthrough amid the increased volume. After the level of 1.5040 testing the pair rebounded upwards and broke through the resistance level of 1.5100.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5150, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.5040, 1.4970.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The yen fell amid the US strong employment report. The Bank of Japan governor Kuroda said that the Japanese economy state fundamentals remain solid. At the same time the Prime Minister Abe said that the yen excessive strength had been corrected. Nevertheless the dollar weakened and the pair fell by the end of the trades on Monday.

Buyers broke through the key resistance level of 122.40. The level of 122.40 breakthrough allowed the pair to consolidate above the resistance of 123.20. However then the pair fell below this level.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the growth to 123.20 further on we expect a fall towards 122.40 and 121.30.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

11.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

After a few days of the European currency decline the pair needed a rest and a technical correction. There is not any reason for the euro significant growth. There was not any anything interesting news yesterday. There were just a few minor indicators; however, they unlikely interested investors. Thus, the market remained in the hibernation state and we did not noted strong movements.

The pound also enjoyed an increased demand after the dollar slight correction. The British currency has risen and consolidated. The published UK retail sales were weak - the index was reduced by 0.2% while a growth of 0.7% was expected.

The Japanese currency has also risen slightly in relation to the US dollar. The Japan trade balance has decreased and the bank lending growth rate has fallen. The pair dollar/yen also consolidated.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro remained under pressure after the ECB report which is considering the negative interest rates possibility at its December meeting.

Furthermore, the correction efforts are restrained by the fact that after the US Friday labor market strong publication the probability of the December Fed rate hike has risen and is 71.7% against 58% before the report publication. Probability of the January increase was 75.8% and 85.2% in March.

This fact supports the dollar and limits the growth rate. The pair did not grow to the level of 1.0800 and rebounded downwards. The pair broke through the support level of 1.0730.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0730, the next one is at 1.0800.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target – 1.0630. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0550.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

We expect more volatility trading the second half of the week after a quite enough the first part. The BoE Governor Mark Carney's speech will be in the center of traders' attention on Wednesday.

The pair GBP/USD the dollar rally somewhat slowed down. The pair has recovered and now it is trading above1.5100.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5150, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.5100, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.5040.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

In general the pair USD/JPY has a positive mood. The US currency was supported by the Fed statement which confirmed the expectations validity about the Fed interest rates growth at the December meeting.

Meanwhile, the pair USD/JPY was stable during the day, still the dollar could not resist, so that quotations played out growth, having decreased to the below the level of 123.20. The pair started a consolidation here.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 123.20 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 123.80 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

12.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The European Central Bank monetary policy provides the main influence on the euro aimed at its currency rate weakening. A number of officials’ oratory led by the ECB head, Mario Draghi and the macroeconomic indicators reduction confirmed that the current policy would be continued and even be accelerated. Germany has been published the wholesale price index of little importance, the US has published the mortgage lending index.

The British currency purchases started yesterday. Great Britain has published the number of jobless claims (3,3K), the unemployment (5,3%) and the average wages level (3,0%). The positive forecasts made traders buy pounds at night. Besides there was Mark Karny's speech yesterday.

The Japanese currency declined a bit. The decrease was caused by the lack of important statistics. Japan did not publish important news yesterday. It became known the Japanese machinery and equipment orders changes by 23.1%. However, investors did not react to this report. Investors need something more interesting and important for active actions. The pair dollar/yen is trading in a flat.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The commodity market sales became a positive factor for the dollar as the commodity cost is denominated in the US currency. Industrial metals were the decline leaders, oil showed a lateral tendency. It was a bank holiday in the United States on the occasion of the Veterans Day, so the USA traders were absent. There were not any important releases in the euro zone.

Bulls managed to break through the resistance of 1.0730 at the yesterday trading session after which there was correction with the level testing upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0730, the next one is 1.0630. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0800, the next one is at 1.0925.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.0730 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.0630, further then towards 1.0550.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK National Statistics website published the labor market release. The Bank of England pointed to the steady domestic demand in its latest monetary policy reviews amid the unemployment decline and the average earnings growth. “Bears” ended the game and continued to open short positions on the attractive levels, playing off the divergence, expecting the US Fed and the Bank of England monetary policy. However the pair pound/dollar showed a growth.

The pair tested the support level of 1.5150 and rebounded upwards. The bulls broke through the resistance level of 1.5200.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a a downward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.5150, 1.5100.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

There was not important macroeconomic statistics yesterday. The debt market pointed out to the bullish trend continuation. The US and the Japanese government bonds differential profitability is confidently kept at the level of 200 bp. Yesterday the utility service sector was the growth leader in the US stock market which indicates the lack of investors' risk appetite.

The corrective decline is amid the low volumes and stopped below the resistance level of 123.20.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates above the resistance level of 123.20, it may continue the growth in the short term. The potential target is 123.80.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

13.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The Thursday trades were opened by the Germany inflation data report. Then, the Eurozone published the industrial production indicators. The main attention was drawn to the United States. In particular, traders were interested in the weekly jobless claims release. The data came out at 276 000. The Fed several representatives’ speeches set the tone for the evening trades.

The Germany wholesale prices report slowed down the October decline, the euro is focused on the ECB representatives’ statements where it was stated that the deposit rate should not be decreased in December that supported the European currency.

The Bank of England governor Carney‘s optimistic comments that the UK economy was able to cope with the external risks supported the pound purchases. The UK average salaries did not meet traders' expectations while the unemployment rate has fallen. The housing balance price indicator exceeded expectations and amounted to 49% for October.

The pair USD/JPY slightly corrected downwards when the Bank of Japan assured that there was no need for further monetary easing.

The New Zealand dollar fell against the Australian dollar that received some support after the October unemployment sharp decline. After the new jobs number increase the traders reduced the expectations regarding to the Australian Reserve Bank further interest rate decrease.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The ECB stimulating measures and the Fed rate hike possible increase, probably, will continue to set the tone in the foreign exchange market until the December Central Bank meetings. The German and the US two-year bond yields have already broken through the levels which were set in March.

After the last week sharp decline the price has moved into the long consolidation near the support level of 1.0730. Now the price is trading above that level. The volume divergence signals towards the buyers power easing.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0730, the next one is 1.0630. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0800, the next one is at 1.0925.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0730 and 1.0630.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK labor data became the driver growth for the pair. The unemployment rate has fallen to 5.3% that was the lowest indicator for the last seven years. The RICS housing prices balance was published the other day which came out better than expected - 49%. There forecast was 45%.

Practically the whole week the British pound was correcting from the support level of 1.5040. Despite the reduced volumes, buyers have broken through two strong resistance levels of 1.5150 and 1.5200.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5300. The approach to the level of 1.5300 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.5150, 1.5100.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Fed December interest rates increase is estimated with the probability of 75%. The market's reaction suggests that the probability of the Bank of Japan additional stimulating measures became lower. Nevertheless, the yen is expected to continue weakening against the US dollar as the probability of the Fed December rate growth is a strong driver.

After the rapid growth the pair started its weak downward correction. Not having broken through the resistance level of 123.20 the pair is demonstrating a lateral movement, keeping the likelihood of growth.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 123.20 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 123.80 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss National Bank will not hurry with the deposits interest rates reduction. Firstly it will try to restrain the franc growth with the help of the foreign exchange intervention. The financial capital outflow resumption is worth noting which can also increase pressure on the franc while maintaining the total market volatility at the current low levels.

The frank is in a flat between the levels of 1.0100 and 0.9960. However, the pound growth is possible, although it will be very weak.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9960, the next one is 0.9850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0190.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 1.0100. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0190.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

16.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The European and the US economic releases alongside with the monetary authority’s comments caused a vivid dynamics for the major pairs. The Eurozone and the region countries published the third quarter GDP data. The Europe has published the trade balance report. Besides the US minor release, players have paid their attention to the retail sales where the monthly indicator increase was expected.

The main blow to the euro came from the ECB President M. Draghi who "promised" to revise the buying assets program in December, having noted the inflationary risks weakening due to the single currency recent strengthening. Another reason for the sales was the euro zone industrial production weak data which fell by 0.3% in September against the expectations by -0.1%.

The pair EUR/GBP declined amid the euro widespread sales contributed to the GBP/USD quotations recovery after a decrease. In the absence of the UK releases the pair focused on the dollar rate behavior.

The pair USD/JPY experienced a lack of growth dynamics. The trades were little revived after the Fed speech, which have not made significant corrections to the market expectations, although it slightly undermined the dollar positions which calculated on the aggressive statements.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro resumed its decline after a growth at the end of the trading week. The decline was provoked by the less aggressive than expected Fed statements tone towards the interest rates increase timing. In particular, Evans said that he would like to see the inflation growth before the interest rates being changed, the New York Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Dudley noted the inflation expectations signs decline, saying that the rate hike conditions soon be achieved.

After a consolidation above the support level of 1.0730 the pair tested the resistance level of 1.0800. However the pair decreased to the support level of 1.0730.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0730, the next one is 1.0630. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0800, the next one is at 1.0925.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.0730 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0630 will be opened.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK insignificant indices publication has not supported the pound. The traders’ attention was focused on the US retail sales news. The pair GBP/USD is trading above the support level of 1.5200 for the first time since last Thursday when the Bank of England MPC meeting took place.

The price is trading above 1.5200. The level of 1.5200 is a strong support and the price could not fall below this mark.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows shows an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.5300 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5390 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

In general, the pair USD / JPY continues its correction from the three month maximum, achieved in the middle of the week. The Friday data was published that fixed some Japan production recovery.

Throughout the week the US dollar is trading under the level of 123.20. The correctional price reduction is at the low volumes - sellers are gradually losing their strength.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 122.40 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 123.20 and 123.80.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar fell against major currencies at the end of the week as some investors decided to close their positions. Meanwhile, the newsflow continue to support the expectations, concerning the Fed interest rates increase in December. It is early to talk about the dollar strengthening trends changes. However the dollar strengthened by the end of the trades.

The pair is trading between the resistance level of 1.0100 and the support level of 0.9960. By the end of the trades the pair increased. The October retail sales release in the United States was published on Friday's trading. The growth rate was 0.1%, the forecasts of + 0.3%, previously was recorded 0.1% growth.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9960, the next one is 0.9850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0190.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 1.0100. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0190.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

17.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair euro/dollar spent last week in a flat and finished the trades close to the opening prices, having shown the European currency minimal advantage. The October consumer price index (CPI) latest assessment - showed the growth to 0,1% with the forecast 0,0%. The ECB M. Draghi first speech was in the center of our attention. The pair slightly decreased by the end of the trades.

At the beginning of the week the British news main theme will be the inflation report. The statistics will show the consumer and producer prices indicators which will be published on Tuesday. The forecasts suggest that there are some deflation signs and the October consumer price index (CPI) is expected to be unchanged at the level of 0.1% y/y after -0.1% y/y in September while the basic indicator without food and fuel prices remained at the level of + 1.0% y/y. The pound was trading in the flat on Monday.

This week Japan most important economic statistics has already been published. The 3rd quarter GDP preliminary estimate showed the recession signs, the indicator has fallen for the second consecutive quarter by -0.2% q/q after -0.3% q/q while it was forecasted -0.1% q/q. These figures caused a small-scale multi-directional movement in the market that has not changed yet into the directed activity - the price is at the opening level. The pair increased on Monday.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The European consumer prices index has already been published. The growth rate decline was expected to 0.1% on the monthly basis which cannot please investors as Europe is on the brink of deflation. Data came out at the forecasted level.

The pair started its consolidation in the range, limited by the levels of 1.0800-1.0630. At first, it fell under the support level of 1.0730, but it soon returned above this mark. However the pair could not fixate above this level and the support level of 1.0730 was broken through downward.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0730, the next one is at 1.0800.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the downward movement will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The absence of the UK macroeconomic news and the US weak statistics was not reflected on the pound. Investors did not manage to rise the British pound amid the overseas weak news and there were not any reasons for the dollar growth. The UK housing prices index declined on Monday November 16th.

The pair GBP/USD was between the levels of 1.5200 and 1.5300, being kept most of the day above the key level of 1.5200.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5300. After breaking 1.5300the buyers may go to 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US dollar has been traditionally growing without any reason prior to the overseas news publication. As the retail sales data were disappointing, the American currency has lost all its advantages. The Japan industrial production showed an increase by 1.1%, although the forecasts were slightly lower. The majority of investors did not pay attention again to the Japanese news. By the end of the trades the pair increased.

The pair USD/JPY showed a growth above the support level of 122.40. This level was tested. Then the pair rebounded upwards, having tested the level of 123.20.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 123.80 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 124.30 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

18.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The euro sharply fell against the dollar amid the risk appetite decline after the Paris terrorist attacks reports. The temporary support was the Eurozone October consumer price index (CPI) last estimate which revised the preliminary results. The indicator was increased to 0.1% y/y despite the fact that it previously recorded 0.0% y/y after - 0.1% y/y in September. The ZEW Institute German and the Eurozone business sentiment reports were the main event yesterday. The data came out better then forecasted 6,0 at the level of 10,4.

The British pound also fell against the dollar. However, the "cable" losses were not so significant. Apparently, the pound stability continues to provide its appeal as the most high-yielding currency among the majors. The UK news was filled with important information for the pound, namely the inflation data which is one of the main indicators, according to which BoE corrects its monetary policy. By the end of the day the pair increased.

The Japanese important economic news was not published; the yen continues to decline against the dollar, probably, on the lingering sentiment for the greenback and on the Japanese stock market optimism where the Nikkei grew by 1.22%.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The Eurozone October consumer prices index came out in its final assessment, the index was revised upwards. The total CPI was 0.1% versus 0.0% in the preliminary estimate and the forecast was with no changes, the core CPI was revised downwards from 1.0% y/y to 1.1% y/y. The data made no impression on the market. The ZEW economic sentiment index was published as well yesterday. It came out at the level of 10,4.

The price resumed to its decline. The price consolidated below the level of 1.0730 and tried to test the support of 1.0630. The trade is at this level now. Indicators again indicate the "bearish" sentiment predominance.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0730, the next one is at 1.0800.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.0630 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0550 will be opened.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound high stability may be the result not only the political situation in France, but also because of the UK inflation data where the October retail price index was expected with a growth from 0.8% y/y to 0.9% y/y. In fact the index came out at the level of 0.7%. The UK October consumer price index was expected at the same level of 1.0% y/y but showed a growth to 1.1%.

The price is consolidating. After the support successful of 1.5200 breakthrough bears sent the price lower to the mark of 1.5150. Then the pair increased above the resistance level of 1.5200.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5200, the next one is 1.5150. We do not exclude the growth to 1.5300.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese 3rd quarter GDP in the 2nd preliminary estimate was revised to -0.2% against -0.1%. The US important economic indices were published - the consumer price index and the industrial production volume. These data put pressure on the yen. However the dollar’s strengthening on the market allowed the pair to grow.

The pair is trying to consolidate above the level of 123.20. After this mark successful breakthrough bears took over the initiative and sent the instrument downwards, trying to test the level from the top.

The price is finding the first support at 123.20, the next one is 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.80, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 123.80 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 124.30.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

19.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The German ZEW institute business climate showed the figures better than the consensus forecast, still this indicator downward trend is still strong. On the contrary, the United States have pleased traders with the October moderately positive inflation data. In the light of this the United States and the Germany bond yields grew that increases the investments’ attractiveness in the US assets. The FOMC authoritative representative U.Dadli gave his speech in the United States. He said that the rates growth would be a good news for the dollar. The pair euro/dollar was trading in a flat.

The US and the UK CPI differential profitability indicators declined in favor of the latter in October which caused the UK government bond yields increase relative to their US and Germany counterparts. The side trades were noted in the pair pound/dollar.

According to the third quarter GDP data, Japan slipped into the technical recession. The US October inflation showed a moderate growth that reinforced investors' expectations, regarding the Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening possibility. The Japanese yen is an obvious outsider among the other pairs. The pair dollar/yen increased.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The sentiment related with the ECB and the Fed multi-directional policy continued to help the US dollar to keep the leadership. The European statistics has not published important news, the September construction volume data did not change the market sentiment. After M. Draghi unequivocal sayings about the intention to increase the monetary policy easing, the ECB representatives' statements were ignored.

The pair shows a consolidation above the support level of 1.0630 after its reduction and this level testing.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0730, the next one is at 1.0800.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.0630, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.0550.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound was supported by the UK inflation data. The UK did not publish any important news. The news background was filled with the Bank of England representatives’ speeches that were ignored. Investors were waiting for the US FOMC last meeting reports.

"Bulls" have not been able to renew their attempts to increase to the resistance level of 1.5300. The price broke through the support level of 1.5200 but then it returned above this level. The pair started its consolidation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can rebound to the resistance level of 1.5300. After breaking 1.5300 the buyers may go to 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair has slightly increased, supported by the continuing dollar growth and the Japan stock market optimism growth. However, there was not any high activity at the market. The price demonstrated the slight decline caused by the technical factors and the lack of Japanese economic news. The Fed minutes have been published, but they have not had any effect on the dollar.

The price continued its growth, but was stopped below the mark of 123.80.

The price is finding the first support at 123.20, the next one is 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.80, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 123.80 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 124.30 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

20.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US Federal Reserve meeting minutes could not disappoint investors. Most the Fed managers expect the necessary conditions to the interest rates increase to be achieved by the December meeting. There was the risks reduction that was caused by the trading partners’ economic slowdown. The fundamental background is still negative for the single European currency. However, the pair corrected upwards yesterday.

The UK and the US government bond yields expanded in favor of the latter which reduces the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets. The commodity market showed the "bearish" sentiment that supports the US currency. Nevertheless, the pound strengthened against the dollar.

The US inflation short-term forecast was revised towards the positive direction; the medium-term view remains the same. Against this background, the dollar index basket (USDX) strengthened. Japan is in the technical recession, due to many factors, one of which is the China business activity slowdown which is one of the Japan leading trade partners. The Bank of Japan meeting was held where the country monetary policy was discussed. The bank decided not to change it.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US Treasury two-year bond yields is once again demonstrating growth that supports the demand for the US dollar. Investors are still pessimistic about the European assets in the bond market: the German 10-year government bonds are reducing relative to their US and the UK counterparts. The number of the US initial jobless claims report was published. The report showed the number that coincides with the forecast - 271K.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0730, the next one is at 1.0800.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.0730 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.0630, 1.0550.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK National Statistics Office published the October retail sales report. The consensus forecast pointed out to the retail sector sales growth slowdown by 0.4% compared with the previous month as the September sales increased by 1.9%. In fact the index fell by 0,6%. The UK unemployment fell to their lowest levels since mid-2008, the third quarter average earnings increased by 3% in annual terms.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. After breaking 1.5300 the buyers may go to 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting results was the main event of the day. It was the monetary regulator first meeting after Japan fell into the technical recession. The low wage growth constrains household spending. The Japanese currency growth against the US dollar to 2.16% in the third quarter contributed to the exports decline which increased the trade deficit.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 123.20 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 123.80.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc rose slightly after the FOMC minutes publication. The Switzerland government reported that Jordan can hold intervention in the currency market. According to his words, negative rates lead to the overvalued franc.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0100, the next one is 0.9960. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0190, the next one is at 1.0280.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0190. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0280.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

23.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The initial jobless claims number fell by 5 thousand till 271 thousand. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank business activity report has shown a much more positive trend than it was forecasted - the index rose up by 1.9 in November against the October 4.5 with the improvement expectations only to -1.0. The prospects can be judged to some extent by indicators which increased by new orders index to -3.7 against -10.6, still the employment rose up to 2.6 after the previous -1.7.

The euro zone and the US important macroeconomic data have not been published. The ECB President Mario Draghi gave his speech. The monetary regulator has once again confirmed its intention to change the ECB monetary policy if needed, still traders have not received a clear signal from him. Пара EUR/USD slightly fell by the end of the day.

In the absence of interesting macroeconomic releases the last trading day of the week, traders have closely followed the debt and commodity markets dynamics. The UK credit markets government bond yields are reducing relative to their US counterparts. The commodity market has stabilized after the strong sales in the strong negative fundamental trend. By the end of the trades the pair GBP/USD sharply fell.

The United States and Japan have absolutely opposite macroeconomic statistics which the market gets during autumn. The United States is encouraging investors with the labor market and consumer spending positive data that has forced to think seriously about the Fed interest rates raising on December 16th. Even the dollar revaluation factor has had no significant negative influence. The pair USD/JPY closed the week trades with a decrease.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

It is hard to ignore the euro zone payments balance dynamics that is an important macroeconomic indicator. The trades surplus was 73.4 billion euros in the third quarter of 2015 which is less by 7.08% than it was in the second quarter, but by 10.7% more than in the same period of the last year. The positive dynamics in comparison with the year 2014 is related to the single European currency devaluation.

“Bulls” have attempted to start a growth. The price was at the level of 1.0730 and rebound downwards, trades were held with a decrease to the mark of 1.0630.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0730, the next one is at 1.0800.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK government bond yields are declining relative to their German counterparts. The British Industry Confederation (CBI) data were not so encouraging that showed the industrial production index decreased in November to -6 against the earlier 4 and the orders indicator reduction to -11 from -8 in October.

The "bulls" attempt to continue growth has failed. The resistance at the level of 1.5300 has been only tested. The price could not break through that mark and returned downwards. The support level of 1.5200 was broken through.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5150, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.5200 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5300 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair dollar/yen has declined. In addition to general market sentiment, formed under the influence of the Fed protocols content, sales within this pair were caused by disappointment that the Bank of Japan decided to keep its monetary policy unchanged when a certain part of the market still hoped to hear about the leniency programs capacity.

The pair continued its decline to the mark of 122.40 but it was stopped. The pair formed a consolidation.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 122.40 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 121.30.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The decrease in this pair stopped. Earlier the pair USD / CHF continued to fall while the dollar was declining on all fronts after the Fed officials’ comments. The Federal Reserve Bank manager Cleveland Loretta Mester said that the Fed has almost reached the employment targets. She is confident that the inflation target of 2% can be achieved despite the oil prices decline and the dollar growth. She believes that the longer delay is (with higher rates), the higher financial imbalances chances are. By the end of the trades the pair showed a growth.

The pair dollar / franc stopped its correctional movement. The pair increased and tested the level of 1.0190.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0100, the next one is 0.9960. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0190, the next one is at 1.0280.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

After the resistance level of 1.0190 breakthrough upward the way to the resistance 1.0280 will be opened.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

24.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The November Germany manufacturing sector business climate report has been published by Markit Economics. The data output was at the level of 52.00 which indicates the moderately positive dynamics and shall give a short-term support for the single European currency. The employment and average earnings growth with the interest rates reduction on 30-year mortgages allowed banks to increase the mortgage lending in October. In this connection, the data is expected to be a little better than the forecasted medians, the data came out at the level 52,6. It is impossible to ignore the ECB President Mario Draghi’s speech last week. The ECB governor told: "We'll do everything we need to do for the early inflation rising". The pair euro/dollar was trading in a side corridor.

Now the debt market dynamics is on the bears’ side in the pair GBP/USD: the UK government bond yields have been declining for last three trading days relative to their US and Germany counterparts which reduces the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets. Last week CBI again reported about the industrial orders volume reduction and the negative trend has been lasting for seven months in a row. The pair pound/dollar continued its decrease.

The Japanese and the US government bond yields have been declining for last two trading days which increases the investments’ attractiveness into the Japanese assets. The dollar was supported by the "black gold" market pessimistic sentiments: the Baker Hughes release was not able to provide strong support to the oil quotations, despite the fact that the number of drilling rigs decreased by 10 units. The pair dollar/yen fell by the end of the trades.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro zone monetary authorities once again underlined that they were ready to go for the monetary policy further easing if necessary. However, the debt market dynamics is on the euro bulls side now: The German 10-year government bond yields are growing relative to their US and the UK counterparts.

The last week minimum of 1.0630 was updated. Sellers managed to update and consolidate below this mark. Until recently this support started to play the resistance role.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0630, the next one is at 1.0730.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.0550 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0420.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound has increased by 3.4% over the last eighteen months against its main trading partner which increases the risk for the UK exporters. The CBI respondents identified two key negative factors: the strong pound and the global economic growth weakness.

The British pound showed a decrease from the resistance level of 1.5300. The pair broke through the support levels of 1.5200 and 1.5150. The price reached the levels amid the low volumes, but with an increased volatility.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5150, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a confirmed and a srong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.5100, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.5040.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

There was the US secondary market home sales positive publication. However the data came out at the level 5,36M, the forecast was 5,40M. The dollar rally comes to the end; traders have already priced in a bet the December Fed raising interest rates forecast. The final decision will depend on the Fed economic data, so the personal consumption expenditures deflator which will be released on Wednesday will determine whether the US monetary tightening cycle starts in 2015 or not.

The buyers’ previous attempts to break through above the resistance level of 122.40 were unsuccessful. The pair rebounded downward from this level.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 122.40 and 121.30.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.