MoneyOnComputer

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

07.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

There was a pessimistic statement by Lagarde (the head of IMF) regarding the growing risks for the global economy. The Federal Reserve latest comments talked about low expectations regarding the interest rate. Finally the oil price decreased. All of these factors together were the main drivers for the risk escape, and against this background the dollar tried to recover. The Fed minutes publication became the main event of Wednesday. Some traders are afraid that the rate hike in April will show undue urgency. Also there were different opinions about the possibility of interest rates hike in April.

The market reaction to the positive USA reports was weak. We noticed the growing optimism in the bonds market. German 10-year government bonds yield kept growing, which made European assets more attractive for investments. Germany revealed Industrial Production for February. The index came in at -0.5% versus the previous data of 2.3% and the forecast of -1.8%. The pair euro/dollar showed a growth.

Service PMI grew both in the USA and the UK. Both indexes grew in comparison to February still the USA PMI growth rate was higher. The pair pond/dollar increased.

The USD/JPY completely ignored the positive macroeconomic statistics from the US and negative reports from Japan. The pair kept on following the dynamics of the stock markets, especially the Japanese one. The pair decreased.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The weak Service PMI in the Eurozone pressured the euro. The index fell to 53,1 from the previous value of 54,0, analytics expected the index to remain unchanged. The news that OECD lowered its forecasts regarding the German GBP growth in 2016 and 2017 pressured the euro as well. Even though the euro fell amid the mixed economic data it managed to recover some of it losses by the end of the day.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1450, the next one is 1.1550.



Pound

General overview

The Sterling strengthened by the end of the trades. Earlier the main drivers for the pair sales were: an escape from risks, oil prices decrease and weak Service PMI in the country. The index grew from 52.7 to 53.7 in March when the market expected the growth to 54,0. The bearish movement was obvious in the Bonds Market as well, which caused the UK 10-year government bonds yield to decrease.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4240.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.4080, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4000.



Yen

General overview

The decrease of risk appetite is a positive factor for the yen as a funding currency. The Bonds Market supported bears as well. The USA and Japanese government bonds yield differential decreased, which contributed to the inflow of capital into the Japanese assets.

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 109.00 and 108.50.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

08.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The market fell in the middle of the week amid Industrial Production weak report. The index lost 0.5%, the forecast was 1.8%. The published Fed minutes confirmed Yellen’s words regarding the external risks and slowing down with the rate hike. The market lowered its expectations to 46.5% that the Fed would hike the rate in September. At the same time the market gives 50% that the rate hike will happen in November and 52.5% that in December.

The ECB minutes publication and Mario Draghi’s performance became the main events of Thursday. Initial Jobless Claims showed 267K with the forecast of 270K. Consumer Credit Change showed $17,22B with the forecast of 14.74B

The UK published House Prices report for March. The housing prices rose by 10.1%. Economists expected that the growth rate slightly would weaken to 9.5%. The housing prices rose by 2.6% in monthly terms. Analysts expected the prices to grow only by 0.7%.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Mario Draghi’s performance became the main event of Thursday. The euro strengthened against the dollar by 4.6% in the first quarter. That was a negative factor for exports and inflation. The USA published Initial Jobless Claims for April. The Index showed 267K (the previous value was 276K; the forecast was 271K).

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1500.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1450, the next one is 1.1500.



Pound

General overview

The bonds market was against the British assets yesterday. The UK government bonds yields decreased. House Prices Index in the UK rose more than expected, reaching 2.6% compared with -1.5% in the previous month. Experts expected a growth rate for the last month by 0.7%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4240.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.4080, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4000.



Yen

General overview

The yen freshed 18-month highs when Tokyo shares fell and at the same time the oil prices grew. The demand for safe-haven assets helped to strengthen the yen as well. According to Haruhito Kuroda, the Bank of Japan Governor, the Central Bank will take further action to soften the monetary policy if necessary.

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 108.00 and 107.00.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

11.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

Based on the Fed minutes, the Central Bank is unlikely to hike the interest rates until June amid the concerns about the global economic growth. The Fed minutes pressured the dollar, still it could show a short-term growth after Janet Yellen’s speech. According to Janet Yellen the rate hike is still part of the regulator’s plans for this year.

The fact that the European Central Bank confirmed its readiness to stimulate the economy if necessary weakened the euro. However by the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar slightly increased.

In economic news, the weak economic reports in the UK did not support the pound which stopped growing against the US dollar. At the same time the dollar remained fragile due to the Fed cautious position regarding the rates hike. By the end of the week the pair pound/dollar showed a growth.

The yen growth was stopped by The Bonds Market growth as well as the possible intervention by the Japanese Central Bank. In addition, the Current Account for February increased to 2,434.9B compared with 520.8B in the previous month. Nevertheless the pair dollar/yen closed the trades with a decrease



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The 10-year government bonds yield in Germany grew which increased the attractiveness of the European assets. German exports increased by 1.3% after falling by 0.6 percent in January. At the same time, import growth slowed in Germany to 0.4% from 1.3% a month earlier.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen showы a downward movement and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.1450 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.1550.



Pound

General overview

The weak macroeconomic statistics upset the UK investors. Manufacturing Production for February fell due to the seasonal correction reaching 1.1%, and that was much higher than the forecast 0.2%. In addition the Britain Trade Balance Deficit decreased to 11.96 billion pounds in February from 12.16 billion pounds in January.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4240.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.4080 and 1.4000.



Yen

General overview

Taro Aso’s speech (the Minister of Finance of Japan) was the key event in Japan. The Minister was concerned about the recent Japanese yen strengthening. The high Trade Balance and the profits from touristic business helped Japanese Current Account to grow. The Current Account for February increased to 2,434.9B from the previous value of 520.8B.

The price is finding the first support at 107.40, the next one is at 106.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 108.20, the next one is at 109.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 107.40 breakthrough down the way to the support 106.60 will be opened.



Franc

General overview

The Swiss Consumer Prices on annual basis continued to decline in March. The index fell by 0.9% compared with a year earlier. The Consumer Prices on monthly basis has been growing for the second month in a row. The prices rose by 0.3% as expected in March, compared with the growth of 0.2% in February.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9420. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9580, the next one is at 0.9660.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9500. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9420.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

12.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

Cautious statements by William Dudley (the Fed representative) pressured the US currency. Dudley called for a cautious and gradual approach towards the interest rate hike.

No important news were published on Monday. Traders focused their attention on the Bonds Market dynamics which sent strong "bearish" signals: the 10-year German government bonds yield fell. The pair EUR/USD is trading in a flat.

The UK published some macroeconomic data, the weak data did not allow the bulls to return to the market. The industrial production volume for February decreased by 0.3%, in addition the index recorded a decrease of 0.1% for the first two months of the year. The same index in the USA for the same period showed an increase by 0.1%. Although the difference was small, still it was not in favor of the British currency. However by the end of the trades the pair GBP/USD strengthened.

Bearish sentiment within the USDJPY is very strong. The trading is defined by "risk appetite". The pair closed the trades with a decrease.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

No important news were published on Monday. Earlier the published Trade Balance in Germany for February supported the euro. The index grew to 19.8B Euros from 18.7B. Imports and exports increased by 0.4% and 1.3% vs. the forecast of -0, 3% and + 0.5% respectively.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.1450 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.1550.



Pound

General overview

Investors planned to update the March maximum of oil prices that will have a positive impact on the pound. Bonds market showed a growing optimism: the UK government bond yields grew.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.4160 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4080 will be opened.



Yen

General overview

The dollar got under pressure after Fed of in Atlanta and J.P Morgan Bank forecasts publication. The first one downgraded the forecast for the US economic growth to + 0.1%. Meanwhile, Morgan Bank revised its forecast to + 0.2% from + 0.7%. These forecasts pressured the dollar. Risky assets sales once again supported the yen as a funding currency.

The price is finding the first support at 107.40, the next one is at 106.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 108.20, the next one is at 109.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 107.40 and 106.60.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

13.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The bullish sentiment in the commodity market had a negative impact on the dollar, due to the cost decrease of raw materials which is in the US currency. The oil and base metals confidently finished the first part of the week in the "green zone". Only by the end of the trades the dollar slightly strengthened.

The US and German government bonds yields differential decreased which increased the attractiveness of the European assets. On the other hand, the growth of pessimism in the world leading stock markets also played into the hands of the bulls (because the euro is one of the funding currencies). However the pair EUR/USD closed the trades with a decrease.

The UK inflation report became the main event of Tuesday. The gasoline prices growth and the average weekly earnings increase had its positive impact on the British bonds market. The 10-year government bonds yield increased by 8 bp. The UK consumer price index for March rose by 0.5% y/y that was the maximum value since December, 2014. The trades on the pair GBP/USD closed with a slight growth.

Japan and the United States did not publish any important macroeconomic statistics. The pair USD/JPY showed an upward correction.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Even though the inflation in Germany for March accelerated its growth, the Producer Price index was below the ECB target level. The consumer prices in Germany rose by 0.8%, the index rose by 0.1% over the year. Low rates of inflation in the Euro area forced the ECB to take additional measures to bring the inflation rate up to 2%.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

The price is on the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.1450 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1550 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound

General overview

The consumer price index in Britain rose by 0.5% y/y. According to Mark Carney (the Bank of England Governor) they need to accelerate the pace of wage growth and take the inflation to the target level of 2% before any rate increase. We believe that the Bank of England will keep the rates unchanged until the referendum in June. Uncertainty about the referendum results will slow down the economic growth for the next few months.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400.

The price is on the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.4240, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4160.



Yen

General overview

The pair tried to strengthen its positions. Haruhiko Kuroda (the Bank of Japan Governor) announced his intention to launch additional measures. However, the yen continues to ignore any authorities attempts to pressure the currency. In the US, declared on import and export price indices (0,2% m/m and 0,0% m/m against the forecasted 1,0% m/m и -0,2% m/m correspondingly).

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 108.20 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 107.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

14.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar continued its attempts to recover. The latest Fed hawkish statements supported the dollar. In particular, Jeffrey Lacker (the Fed representative) said that the Fed is still planning four rates hike in 2016. The US currency got an additional support when the Fitch agency confirmed the US rating at AAA.

Retail Sales (in fact -0,3%m/m against the forecasted 0,1%m/m and previous -0,1% m/m) and the Producer Price index (in fact -0,1%m/m against the forecasted 0,2%m/m and previous -0,2%m/m) for March became the main events of Wednesday.

The inflation data in Germany did not have any impact on the quotations. In March, the Consumer Price index remained at + 0.8% m/m and + 0.3% y/y. The growth of stock indices caused the euro sales. The pair euro/dollar decreased.

The UK inflation positive report for March supported the positive trend in the Bonds Market. The yields differential on government bonds (the United States and the United Kingdom) have been reducing for the last three trading days. This news increased the attractiveness of the British assets. However the trades on the pair pound/dollar closed with a decrease.

The 10-year government bonds yield (the US and Japanese) expanded which increased the attractiveness of the US assets providing support for the dollar in the pair USD/JPY. This pair showed a growth.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The FED will hold its regular meeting on the monetary policy in late April. The more positive releases we get, the more chances we have that the monetary authorities will seriously talk about the rising interest rates in the medium term. On the other hand, the Eurozone revealed Industrial Production report which came out worse than expected: -0.8% m/m vs. the forecast of -0.7% m/m. Patrick Harker (the Philadelphia Fed Governor) did not exclude that the rates would be raised three times this year.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.1260 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The positive UK statistics supported the pound. The inflation unexpectedly accelerated to + 0.4% m/m and + 0.5% y/y vs. the forecast of + 0.3% and + 0.4% respectively. The commodity market dynamics also played into the bulls’ hands: oil and metals were in steady demand. Then the pair GBP/USD decreased amid the dollar’s strengthening.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.4160 and 1.4080.



Yen

General overview

There were two factors that had pressured the yen: the yen could not resist the growth of Nikkei, and secondly, it fell after Japanese Ministry of Finance comments regarding the possible measures launching aimed at limiting the growth of the national currency.

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 109.80 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 110.60 will be opened after this breakthrough.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

15.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar recovered against the most of its opponents. The positive Trade Balance in China heated the interest in the risky assets, mainly in the US currency. The USA published the Inflation data: 0,1%m/m against the forecasted 0,2%m/m. The Initial Jobless Claims showed 253К against the forecast of 270К.

The government bonds yields differential (the United States and Germany) expanded in the bonds market. The Eurozone published the inflation data for March: CPI came in at + 1.2% m/m, that coincided with the forecast. The pair euro/dollar was trading in a flat after a decrease.

The Bank of England kept its monetary policy unchanged. The UK 10-year government bonds yield decreased which reduced the attractiveness of the British assets. The pair GBP/USD closed the trades with a decrease.

The interest in the yen faded amid the demand for the risky assets. A further verbal intervention made by the Bank of Japan, the regulator again hinted at the possible expansion of its economic measures. However by the end of the trades the dollar/yen decreased.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The aggressive Fed statements as well as China positive export statistics supported the interest in the US currency. At the same time the euro fell amid the positive USA macroeconomic data and the negative statistics of the Eurozone. The Industrial Production in the region fell by 0.8% in February against a growth by 1.9% in January.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.1260, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The GBPUSD started a correction after three days of an impressive growth. The Bank of England published its minutes and announced the interest rate decision (the rate was left at the same level). Brexit theme due to its uncertainty continued to pressure the currency.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4240.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target is 1.4080. If the price falls it will get to 1.4240.



Yen

General overview

Haruhiko Kuroda’s comments (the Bank of Japan Governor) restrained the growth of the yen. According to Haruhiko Kuroda the Central Bank is ready to soften the monetary policy if needed, having many stimulus instruments to achieve the 2% inflation target.

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 109.00 and 108.20.



Franc

General overview

The dollar significantly rose against the Swiss franc amid the stock indices strengthening and the increased interest in the risky assets. The weaker-than-expected data on US retail sales was not able to change investors’ sentiment.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9660, the next one is at 0.9580. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9850.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

18.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The market volatility decreased before the summit in Doha, its results may impact the risk assets. In addition, the US currency got under pressure after the Fed comments and the weak inflation data from the US. According to D. Lockhart (Chief Executive Officer of the Fed of Atlanta) he would not vote for a rate hike in April, supporting a cautious approach to the monetary policy tightening due to low consumer spending. By the end of the trades the market volatility increased.

The United States published Industrial Production volume for March. The index came in at the level of -0,6% m/m (the previous value was -0.50% m/m, the forecast was -0.60% m/m) and the Consumer Sentiment index (from the University of Michigan) for April. The index showed 89.7 (the previous value was 91.0, the forecast was 92.3).

The Euro area inflation data had no significant effect on the EUR/USD (the index reached the zero value after falling by 0.1% y/y). The Euro zone published Trade Balance for February. The index showed 19.0 billion euro, the previous value was 20.0 billions. The pair euro/dollar showed a growth.

Bank of England did not bring any surprises, leaving the rate unchanged at the level of 0,5%. The Bank pointed to the risks related to the Brexit. The pound remained calm to the regulator’s statements. By the end of the trades the pair pound/dollar sharply increased.

The weak US retail sales, PPI and CPI reports disappointed investors. The US and Japanese government bond yields decreased which reduced the attractiveness of the US assets. The pair dollar/yen decreased by the end of the trades.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The 10-year government bonds yield in Germany grew, which increased the attractiveness of the European assets. Traders expect any substantial statements from the ECB on Thursday April 21st, which is likely to confirm that the recent announced monetary policy easing measures will be effective during the inflation growth.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1260 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The pound fell when the IMF changed the forecast of UK GDP for the current year from 2.2% to 1.9%. The IMF again reminded about the consequences of London Brexit which continue to pressure the market. The strong economic reports could not support the pound: the CPI accelerated to 0.5% - this is the highest level in the past 15 months, the Core Inflation grew from 1.2% to 1.5%. Only by the end of the trades the pound strengthened amid the dollar’s weakness.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the growth towards 1.4240. We do not exclude the falls to 1.4160.



Yen

General overview

The weak USA inflation report slightly weakened the JPY/USD. In Japan the Industrial Production decreased by 5.2%. This news supported the dollar. However the pair decreased amid the USA weak statistics.

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break below 108.20 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 107.40 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Franc

General overview

The USD/CHF remained at the same place. Earlier the dollar stabilized against the majors when D. Lockhart (Chief Executive Officer of the Fed of Atlanta) stated that the GBP data was disappointing. Still they forecast the GBP will show a growth at around 2%.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9660, the next one is at 0.9580. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9850.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

19.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar weakened amid the risk aversion in the stock markets. The interest in the safe assets grew amid the fall of oil prices. The oil prices fell after negative results of the oil exporters' meeting in Doha. The weaker-than-expected data from the US pressured the dollar as well. The USA Industrial Production fell by 0.6% against the expected 0.1%, Capacity Utilization fell to 74.8% from 75.4%, and the preliminary Consumer Confidence index for April (Reuters/Michigan) fell to 89.7 against the forecast of 92.

The fall of the risk appetite supported the euro as a funding currency. The growth slowdown of the Chinese GDP and the weak economic data from the United States cooled-down the interest in the risky assets. The main factors that caused the dollar fall were: China economic growth decrease to its lowest level and moderately negative data on the US inflation. The pair EUR/USD strengthened.

Traders took profit and closed their orders in oil contracts that caused a technical correction to the psychological level of $ 40 per barrel. Low energy prices n traditionally had a negative impact on the British currency. Then the oil price increased and the pair GBP/USD closed the trades with a growth.

On Monday, William Dudley (the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York) said that the US labor market steadily recovered and the Central Bank would gradually and cautiously continue normalizing the interest rates. There were negative reports on Inflation, Retail Sales and Industrial Production last week. These factors also played into the bears’ hands in the pair USD/JPY. After a gap downward the USD/JPY grew by the end of the trades.


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Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Even though the market does not expect any sensation from the ECB meeting on April 21st, it could have a great impact on the EUR/USD. According to Mario Draghi the weakness of emerging markets, uncertain prospects of oil and geopolitical risks hamper European HICP and push the ECB to take action.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.1260, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.1150.

Image

Pound

General overview

The pound fell on Monday amid bad news from Doha and deepening fears regarding Brexit. The official campaign for the referendum began last Friday. The two sides are now making efforts to convince the public about the merits of their point of view. According to George Osborne (the UK Finance Minister) the growth of Britain economy will be significantly reduced if the country leaves the EU.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.4320 and 1.4400.

Image

Yen

General overview

By the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen increased. It should be noted that the demand for the safe-heaven yen jumped to near 18-month high against the dollar, as oil prices collapsed when the largest oil producers failed to reach an agreement. The yen generally strengthened since the beginning of the year, as investors' concerns about the policy of negative interest rates in Japan and Europe led to an increase in demand for safe assets.

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward movement potential target is 109.00. If the price falls it will get to 108.20.

Image

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

Image

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

20.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The recent risk aversion in the Forex market was caused by the prices collapse whi. The news that exporters did not come to an agreement in Doha to freeze production at January levels disappointed the energy market. Later the situation was fundamentally changed. Traders’ sentiment was improved by the aggressive correction of the “black gold”, together with the positive comments from the Fed (the regulator was confident that the inflation would return to the target level).

Consumer Spending reports in the United States did not allow us to expect a strong data on the building permits volume. Against the background of a low base from December to February (decreased by 9.19%) the index is expected to display growth within the median forecasts at the level of 1,200M. However the data came in at the level of 1,086M.

Germany and Eurozone published Economic Sentiment for April. Economic Sentiment in Germany came in at 11.2 with the forecast of 8.0. The index in Eurozone came in at 21.5 with the expectations of 13.9. The pair EUR/USD finished the day with a growth.

The UK 10-year government bonds yield grew in the bonds market which increased the attractiveness of the British assets. The pair pound/dollar showed a growth.

Kuroda (the BoJ Governor) in his interview to Wall Street Journal defended the negative interest rates. According to him the Regulator will low the long-term interest rates by 20 basis points. He also hinted that the Bank of Japan might cut the interest rates further. The pair dollar/yen fell by the end of the trades.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The euro grew amid the risk aversion. Now the euro dynamics depends rather on the market sentiment than on European economic statistics and senior European officials’ comments.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1350 and 1.1260.



Pound

General overview

The pound may remain volatile as the possibility of a rate hike was reduced by the Bank of England. While taking a decision on the interest rates last week, the English regulator also discussed the risks for the country economy in case of Brexit. According to M. Carney speech on Tuesday the impact of Brexit would not be helpful and it would make a financing of the payment balance more costly.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.4400 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.4480.



Yen

General overview

After a strong recovery from 17-month low the pair returned into a narrow range. The US published Building Permits (the index came in at 1.086M, the forecast was 1,200M) and Housing Starts data (the index came in at 1.089M, the forecast was 1.170M).

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 108.20 breakthrough down the way to the support 107.40 will be opened.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

20.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar was under pressure after the weak US statistics publication. In March, Building Permits showed 1.086M vs. the forecast of 1.200M and the previous value 1.177M. Housing Starts index also disappointed the market, falling to 1.089M from 1.194M. The following data supported the US currency: Existing Home Sales showed 5.33M with the forecast of 5.30M.

This week macroeconomic statistics reduced the US and Germany government bonds yield differential, which played into the euro bulls’ hands. ZEW index for April reached the maximum level over the past three months amid decreasing fears about the reduction of Chinese GDP. By the end of the trades the pair EUR/USD decreased.

Claimant Count Change for March in the UK grew to 6,7K while the Unemployment Rate remained around 5.1% in February. Average Earnings excluding Bonus for February remained at 2.2%, Average Earnings including Bonus including bonuses fell to 1.8% from 2.1%. The number of unemployed increased by 21 000 people reaching 1.7M. Total wages and salaries in the private sector also slowed down to 1.9%, while the monthly rate fell by 0.9% (the lowest level since July 2014). The pair GBP/USD was trading in a flat.

On the one hand, the weak macroeconomic statistics from the US and the "bullish" sentiment in the commodity market played against the dollar. On the other hand, the "risk appetite" was preserved, that was a negative factor for the yen as a funding currency. The USD / JPY strengthened by the end of the trades.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

In Germany, the Producer Price index was in a flat from February to March. Still the index fell by 3.1% y/y (the strongest drop since January 2010). Economists expected a growth of 0.1% m/m, and a decline of 2.9% y/y. According to the latest reports, the upward pressure on consumer prices from the manufacturers is limited. The consumer climate in 28 EU countries decreased by 3.2 points from 12,2 points in December 2015 to 9 points in March 2016.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.1260, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The GBP/USD formed a consolidation. Earlier the pair grew confidently amid the oil prices gain and the interest in risky assets. The number of Brexit opponents recently declined. Probably, the recent government warnings about the enormous impact of the country exit from the European Union had a positive effect on the British people.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target is 1.4400. If the price falls it will get to 1.4320.



Yen

General overview

The absence of interest in buying the yen became the driver of an upward correction. The correction turned out to be weak amid the risky assets popularity. A limited growth pointed to the weak position of the US currency, which remained under the pressure.

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 109.80 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 110.60 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

22.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The ECB meeting and M. Draghi press-conference became the main events of Thursday. The regulator left the rate unchanged at 0%. According to Draghi he does not exclude a transfer to the negative rates as well. The soft policy will continue until the inflation reaches 2%.

The pound fell against the US dollar after the disappointing retail sales release, that undermined the optimism about the strength of the British economy. The total volume of retail sales for March was expected with a decrease by 0.1%, but it fell even lower to 1.3%.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index for April decreased and showed -1.6. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 247K against the forecast of 263K.

The yen slightly rose even against the background of weaker-than-expected Trade Balance release. The Balance (taking into account seasonal correction) amounted 755,0B against the expectations of 834,6B. Exports grew from -4.0% y / y to -6.8% y / y, imports grew from -14.2% y / y to 14.9% y / y. Kuroda’s statements regarding further policy easing if necessary supported the yen as well.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The ECB meeting and M. Draghi press-conference were the focus of our attention yesterday. The regulator left the rates unchanged. The euro strengthened, which had a negative impact on exporters. Manufacturing PMI declined, and Net Exports rose by 25.2B which is by 6.66% less than the year before.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the mark of 1.1260, it might continue the downward movement. The potential target is 1.1150. In the alternative scenario, we will see a move to 1.1500.



Pound

General overview

The UK government bonds yield reduced in the Bonds market which decreased the attractiveness of the British assets. The UK retail sales fell by 1.3% in March after falling by 0.5% in February. Analysts expected a decrease of 0.1%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect a decrease towards the level of 1.4160. If the pair gets below the Cloud and consolidates there we will see a deeper move towards 1.4000.



Yen

General overview

Merchandise Trade Balance showed 348.4B in the first quarter. The same index showed a negative balance of 1.379T in 2015. The volume of orders for equipment component continued to show a negative dynamics in March. The index showed a decline of 21.2% y / y. The debt market reacted to these reports with the differential expansion of US and Japanese government bonds yields.

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair consolidates above 109.80 it may go higher to 110.60. Otherwise, the pair will decrease to 108.00.



Franc

General overview

In March, the Trade Surplus amounted 2.163M compared with the previous data of 4.022M. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 247K against the forecast of 263K.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9700, the next one is at 0.9650. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9800.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair consolidates above 0.9750 it may go higher to 0.9800. Otherwise, the pair will decrease to 0.9650.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

25.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

Last Friday the dollar rose against major currencies to weekly highs amid the disappointing statistics in the Eurozone. The United States published Manufacturing PMI for April. The index came in at 50.8, the forecast was 52.0.

According to Markit research Group PMI composite index in the Euro zone fell to 53.0 in April from 53.1 in March. The same index in Germany rose to 51.9 in April from 50.7 in the previous month, while Service PMI fell to 54.6 from 55.1.

The speculations that the Bank of Japan may introduce new stimulus measures at the next meeting on April 27-28 continued to press the yen. The Central Bank may extend the program of buying assets or promote the interest rates even further into a negative territory.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Manufacturing PMI in Germany rose more than expected last month. The index showed 51.9 compared with 50.7 in the previous month. Experts expected the index to grow to 51.0.

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350.

We see a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be continued till the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair broke through the first target, the level of 1.1260 and kept going down. We believe the south movement will be continued. The potential target is 1.1150. As a correction we could see a return to 1.1260.



Pound

General overview

The British news background was empty last Friday. The market paid attention to the "black gold" dynamics where the price showed a correction. Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count was published. The report again showed the reduction of the drilling rigs in the United States. The index showed 343 versus the previous figure of 351.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The growth will be continued while the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The price made new attempts to grow. If the price consolidates above 1.4400 the growth will be continued to 1.4480. We will sell if the price gets below 1.4240.



Yen

General overview

The US and Japanese government bonds yields differential expanded which increased the attractiveness of the US assets. The Bank of Japan plans to introduce negative interest rates on some loans.

The price is finding the first support at 111.40, the next one is at 110.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 112.20, the next one is at 113.00.

The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. Both lines form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be continued until the price gets below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is heading towards the resistance of 112.20. Still the USD/JPY may turn down to correct. The correction targets are 111.40 and 110.60.



Franc

General overview

The dollar rose against the Swiss franc at the end of the week. The economic calendar was empty and the market paid attention to the news from the USA. In the US, Manufacturing PMI decreased. The index showed 50.8 with the forecast of 52.0.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9700. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9800, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be continued while the price stays above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is growing to 0.9900. We expect a correction to 0.9750.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

26.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The market started the week rather good. Trading was in the absence of any drivers. The United States published New Home Sales report in March (the previous value was 512K; the forecast was 527K). The data came in at the level of 511K.

Germany published Business Climate for April (106.6 versus the forecast of 107.0). The index low forecast is due to its close correlation with the composite PMI. Which prevented a better forecast for Business climate, taking into account the negative dynamics of the latter. However the pair EUR/USD increased.

The pair GBP/USD started the week with a growth. Oil prices successfully completed the previous trading week in the "green zone", despite Doha summit failure. The oil market bullish sentiment had a positive impact on the British currency (as expected). In spite of the oil prices decrease the GBP/USD grew.

The USDJPY rallied amid a sharp collapse of the yen in response to the news from the Bank of Japan. According to the market rumors the regulator is considering the possibility of issuing loans with a negative rate. These conversations provoked the Japanese currency sell-off. Nevertheless, as a result the USD/JPY fell.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The fact that the ECB left the interest rates unchanged had an impact on the euro. The euro fell in response to this news. The 10-year German government bonds yield decreased in the Bonds Market. Still the pair EUR/USD could slightly strengthen in the beginning of the week. The Fed meeting will be the focus of our attention this week.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward bounce potential targets are 1.1260 and 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The sterling grew after Obama’s speech (the US President). According to Barack Obama the UK will get in the "end of line" concerning the trade agreement with the United States if the country leaves the EU alliance. The UK GDP report for the first quarter is the main event in the country for this week. The report is to be published on Wednesday. The forecast is 0.4%, the previous value was 0.6%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4650.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.4560, the next one is 1.4640.



Yen

General overview

The dollar declined against the yen on Monday leaving three-week highs. The market is waiting for the Fed meeting and BoJ meeting.

The price is finding the first support at 110.60, the next one is at 109.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 111.40, the next one is at 112.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the support levels of 110.60. We do not exclude the growth to 111.40 and 112.20.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

27.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

Yesterday the economic calendar was full of American releases. Durable Goods Orders report for March was published the first (0.8% vs forecast 1.8%). Consumer Confidence for April came in at 94.2 (the previous value was 94.2, the forecast was 96.0). Traders expected to see a hint regarding the state of the economy before the Fed decision on Wednesday, which could have an impact on any further movement of the dollar. Meanwhile investors avoided opening new positions before the Fed meeting.

There was no important news in the Eurozone yesterday. After a strong growth the pair euro/dollar slightly decreased by the end of the trades.

The UK published Mortgage Approvals index for March (45.1K vs the forecast 46.0K). The pair pound/dollar showed a growth but by the end of the trades it slightly fell.

The interest in the safe assets triggered the buying of yen. The rumours that the BoJ won’t apply new soft measures supported the yen as well. We believe that the regulator will evaluate more carefully the effect of the running measures and will apply the new ones only in June. The pair dollar/yen strengthened.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The euro strengthened amid the interest in the safe assets buying. The euro ignored the IFO release and continued slowly growing. In the Bonds Market, the 10-year German government bonds yield rose which increased the attractiveness of the European assets.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.1260 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.1150 will be opened.



Pound

General overview

In the Bonds Market the 10-year government bonds yield differential (the US and the UK) continued to decline which increased the attractiveness of the British assets. In addition, the release of negative macroeconomic data from the United States contributed to a further decrease of the differential.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4650.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.4670 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4760 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen

General overview

The Bonds Market sent "bullish signals": the US and Japanese securities yield differential expanded again which became a bullish factor for the US currency. The oil market growth can become the driver for the dollar to grow.

The price is finding the first support at 110.60, the next one is at 109.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 111.40, the next one is at 112.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 112.20 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 113.00.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

28.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar remained stable to other majors on Wednesday preparing for the final Federal Reserve System political statements. Investors focused on the outcome of the political meeting waiting for any hints regarding the interest rates change in June. The Fed kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.5%.

Consumer Confidence in Germany significantly improved (9.7 versus the previous 9.4). Consumers believe that the German economy will recover in the coming months and expect its moderate recovery. The pair euro/dollar slightly strengthened.

The pound stopped the growth when the market found out that the UK economy had grown by 0.4%, in line with economists' expectations, but slowed to 0.6% in the previous quarter. The UK economic growth in the first quarter was 2.1%, (on an annual terms) similar to the previous quarter and slightly higher than the expected 2.0%. The pair pound/dollar closed the trades with a decrease.

The pair dollar/yen increased by end of the trades.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

In the bond market the government bonds yield differential (the US and Germany) decreased, which was a "bullish" factor for the euro. The commodity market showed an upward trend that traditionally had a negative impact on the dollar as commodity prices are in the US currency. The US Fed meeting was the focus of the market attention.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the fall towards 1.1260 further on we expect a downward movement to 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The UK Gross Domestic Product rose up by 0.4%, as expected. The UK economy showed a growth of 0.6%. In the Bonds Market, the 10-year UK government bonds yield increased which slightly supported the demand for the pound.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4650.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.4480 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.4400.



Yen

General overview

All Industry Activity Index (m / m) decreased for the last month (-1.2% vs. the forecast of -1.3%). These data were revised downward to 2.0%. Experts expected the index to decline to 1.3% over the past month. The trading activity was low as traders waited for the Fed and the Bank of Japan meeting outcome.

The price is finding the first support at 110.60, the next one is at 109.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 111.40, the next one is at 112.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 111.40 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 112.20 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

29.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The Eurozone published the inflation report for Germany (0,2%) and Economic Sentiment Indicator (103,9). In addition, Germany published Unemployment Rate which remained unchanged at 6.2% (in line with the forecasts). Unemployment Change showed -16K.

The UK published Nationwide Housing Prices for April (on a monthly and annual basis). The index showed 0.2% m/m after the previous 0.8% m/m.

The US GDP for the 1st quarter became the main event of the day (the 1st assessment). The index came in at 0.5%, the forecast was 0.7% vs. 1.4% in the 4th quarter. Initial Jobless Claims showed 257K (the previous value was 247K, the forecast was 252K).

The Bank of Japan did not change its monetary policy and did not extend the stimulus rate. The Central Bank is still focused on the increase in the monetary base by 80 trillion yen per year, the deposit rate remained unchanged at - 0.1%.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Unemployment Change in Germany showed -16K, the previous value was -3K. Experts had expected a growth by 4K. Unemployment rate remained at the same level of 6,2%, which corresponded to the forecasts.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1260 soon. The next target will be 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

Nationwide Housing Prices in the UK amounted to 0,2% compared with 0,8% in the previous month. Experts had expected a growth by 0,4%. The US published the GDP report for April. The data came in at the level of 0,5% q/q (the previous value was 1,4% q/q, the forecast was 0,7% q/q).

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4760.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.4670 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4760 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen

General overview

The yen grew when the Bank of Japan did not change the interest rates, as expected. The regulator decided not to apply any further negative interest rates. Industrial Production for March rose by 3.6% on monthly basis, while we expected a growth by 2.9%. Retail Sales fell by 1.1% year on year, although a drop of 1.5 % was expected.

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 107.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 106.60.



Franc

General overview

The USA GDP for the 1st quarter was the main event of Thursday. The release came in at the level of 0,5% q/q (the forecast was 0,7% q/q, the previous value was 1,4% q/q). Initial Jobless Claims number was the focus of our attention as well. The data came in at the level of 257K (the forecast was 260K the previous value was 247K).

The first support lies at 0.9660 and then at 0.9580. The first resistance stands at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9580. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9500.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

02.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

Last Friday was filled with events. The US published Personal Consumption Expenditures (at the forecasted level of 0,1%), Personal Spending (0,1% against the forecasted 0,2%), and Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (77,6 against the forecasted 80,2)

Despite the strong economic growth in the region, the euro lost some gains against the US dollar, amid the weak inflation report in the Eurozone. The index fell to -0.2% y/y in April after the previous 0.0% y/y. The Eurozone GDP grew both in annual and quarterly terms in April: 1.6% after 1.6% before and 0.6% after the previous 0.3%.

The pound stopped growing against the US dollar. The sterling fell after the ambiguous economic data from three-month high. The UK published Net Lending to Individuals and Mortgage Approvals reports (1,883B, 71.360K respectively).

There was a day off in Japan. The USD/JPY pair continued falling after the Bank of Japan decision to maintain its current monetary policy. That was contrary to the market expectations, which expected a further easing.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview
According to the Eurostat the Consumer Price index fell by 0.2% in the Eurozone this month. The market expected a decline of 0.1%, after a zero growth in March. Gross Domestic Product grew by 0.6% in the first quarter (forecast 0.4%, previous 0.3%).

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1450. After breaking 1.1450 the buyers may go to 1.1550.



Pound

General overview

The UK government bonds yields grew which increased the attractiveness of the British assets. However, the Britain published a number of weak reports: Net Lending to Individuals increased by 9.3B in March, the expected data was £5.0B.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4760.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to the level of 1.4670. We do not exclude the falls to 1.4560.



Yen

General overview

The Bank of Japan did not increase the current easing program, and investors began to leave the Japanese market in panic. The pair dollar/yen sharply fell. The dollar fell when the Fed hinted that it might postpone the rates hike. Last Friday Japan had the day off. Meanwhile, the United States published Core Personal Consumption Expenditure for March (the previous value was 0.2% m/m, the data came in at the forecasted level 0.1% m/m).

The price is finding the first support at 106.60, the next one is at 105.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 107.40, the next one is at 108.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 106.60 breakthrough down the way to the support 105.80 will be opened.



Franc

General overview

Thomas Jordan (the National Bank of Switzerland Governor) gave a speech last Friday. Switzerland published KOF Leading Indicator (102.7 vs. the forecast 102.8). The USA Personal Income for March came in at 0.4%, Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April showed 89.0 vs. the forecast 90.0.

The first support lies at 0.9580 and then at 0.9500. The first resistance stands at 0.9660, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9580. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9500.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

03.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar fell from eight-month lows against the other major currencies. The dollar was under pressure after the political decisions of the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve System. The event calendar was empty yesterday amid the Labor Day celebration. According to William Dudley (the New York Fed Governor) the Fed should have more powers to provide emergency financial support for investment firms in case of liquidity problems.

The EUR/USD set new session highs after Manufacturing PMI report in the Eurozone and Germany. The Manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone came in at 51.7. Manufacturing PMI in Germany showed 51.8. Mario Draghi gave a speech at the Asian Development Bank conference in Asia. According to him there is no alternative to the soft monetary policy until we see positive prospects of the world economy.

In Britain, the markets did not work amid Early May celebration.

On Monday, the yen rose to new 18-month highs. The dollar fell when the market found out that the Japanese regulator would not intervene the foreign exchange market to weaken the national currency. Nikkei Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.2 versus the previous value of 48.0.

Image

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Manufacturing PMI in Germany decreased contrary to our expectations. According to Markit Research Group the indicator showed 51.8 compared with 51.9 in the previous month (seasonally corrected). Experts expected the index at the previous level of 51.9.

The first support lies at 1.1450 and then at 1.1350. The first resistance stands at 1.1550, the next one is at 1.1650.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1550 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.1650.

Image

Pound

General overview

According to the international rating agency S&P, if the UK leaves the EU alliance it might loss its AAA rating. The GBP/USD grew amid the general dollar weakness and speculation that the United Kingdom will remain within the EU. The UK market was closed yesterday amid Early May celebration.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4560. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4760, the next one is at 1.4880.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.4760 and 1.4880.

Image

Yen

General overview

The USA Manufacturing PMI for April rose to 51.8. Traders expected the index to decrease to 51 versus 51.5 in March. Manufacturing PMI in Japan exceeded our expectations and rose to 48.2 vs. the forecast of 48.0.

The price is finding the first support at 105.80, the next one is at 105.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 106.60, the next one is at 107.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 105.80 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 105.00. We do not exclude the upward bounce to 107.70.

Image


*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

Image

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

04.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

The USA published some minor reports: ISM New York and IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism indices (48,7 against the forecasted 46,6). We single out only one news that might be interesting: Dennis Lockhart’s speech (the Fed representative). According to Lockhart the price strengthening can be seen right now, but it is too early to decide whether this is sufficient to hike the rate. The decision regarding the rate hike will be taken at the next meeting in June.

Producer Price Index in Eurozone for March showed -4.2% (the forecast was -4.3%, the previous value was -4.2%). The index rose for the first time this the year. That is a signal that the inflation is unlikely to fall in the coming months.

On Tuesday, the pound decreased from its four months high when the UK manufacturing activity fell in April for the first time over the past three years (49.2 from 51.0 in March, vs the forecasted 51.2). The published index increased concerns about the prospects for growth in the second quarter.

Bank of Japan did not work on Tuesday amid the celebration of the Constitution Day.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The Eurozone did not publish any interesting reports on Tuesday. Producer Price index (PPI) for the last month rose more than expected (0.3% vs the forecast 0.1%). According to the report, it was 0.3% compared with -0.7% in the previous month. Experts had expected a growth rate by 0.1%. The devaluation of the Chinese yuan supported the euro as well. By the end of the trades the euro fell.

The first support lies at 1.1450 and then at 1.1350. The first resistance stands at 1.1550, the next one is at 1.1650.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.1550 and 1.1650.



Pound

General overview

Markit Manufacturing PMI in the UK weakened to 49.2 in April, falling to its lowest level since February 2013. This was lower than the revised value of 50.7 in March and weaker than economists' estimate of 51.2. Manufacturing remains one of the most volatile sectors of the economy, and continues to face challenges: weak demand in the Asian markets and the weakening of the euro area.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4670.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target – 1.4480. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 1.4400.



Yen

General overview

Yesterday Japanese banks were closed; the country celebrated a national holiday - Constitution Day. This day off turned traders’ attention to the American news flow where the Fed representatives William Dudley gave his speech. According to Williams he agrees with the decision not to raise the interest rates this year. He also expects that the United States will show a growth of 2% this year.

The price is finding the first support at 105.80, the next one is at 105.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 106.60, the next one is at 107.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward movement potential targets are 106.60 and 107.40. If the price falls it will get to 105.80 and 105.00.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

05.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar managed to recover when traders started to take profits before Non-Farm release. The USA published ADP Employment Change (156K vs. the forecast 196K). Non-Manufacturing PMI from ISM came in at 55.7 vs. the forecast of 54.7.

The latest Eurozone data showed a strong production growth in April (Markit Composite PMI 53.0, in the line with the expectations).

The British pound decreased on Wednesday and the pair lost more than 200 points. PMI Construction in the UK Britain fell in April to 52.0 (three-year low) from the previous 54.2. The index fell even though the general business activity index is in the “green zone”.

The USD/JPY is still low volatile amid the day off in Japan.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Retail sales in the Eurozone fell after three months of growth (Retail sales -0.5% m/m in March, vs. expectation 0.1% vs. +0.3% m/m in February). Services PMI decreased contrary to expectations. (53.1 vs. previous 53.2). Experts expected the index to remain at 53.2.

The first support lies at 1.1450 and then at 1.1350. The first resistance stands at 1.1550, the next one is at 1.1650.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.1550 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.1650.



Pound

General overview

PMI Construction in the UK fell last month to 52.0 (seasonally corrected) from 54.2 in March. Economists forecasted a decline to 54.0. The USA published Markit Services PMI (52.8 vs. expectation 52.1) and ADP Employment Change report (156K vs. forecast 196K).

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4670.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.4400, the next one is 1.4320. We do not exclude the growth to 1.4560 and 1.4670.



Yen

General overview

The pair retreated from 18 months maximum after a strong rally of the Japanese currency. The dynamics of the dollar against the yen may be volatile the next few days until Japanese traders return from the holidays. The yen still receives some support after the Bank of Japan decision to leave its monetary policy unchanged.

The price is finding the first support at 106.60, the next one is at 105.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 107.40, the next one is at 108.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target – 106.60. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 105.80.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

06.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

The USA statistics was the focus of our attention yesterday (Initial Jobless Claims 274K vs forecast 260K). Today we expect Non-Farm release.

Europe celebrated the Ascension Day and many European Central Banks did not work. Despite the day off the market was volatile and the pairs EUR/USD and GBP/USD decreased.

The UK published Services PMI that fell more than expected (52.3 vs. expectations 53.5).

Friday is the first working day in Japan after the long holidays. We expect a sharp growth of the yen. Even now, when the US stock market decreased, the USD/JPY showed a growth.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

According to the European Central Bank the euro area continued its recovery, still downward risks remained. No important news was published amid the Ascension Day celebration in Europe.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.1350 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.1260 will be opened.

Pound

General overview

The pound is expected to remain under pressure. Service PMI showed a decrease (52.3 vs. forecast 53.5). According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number grew to 274K last week.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement, forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.4400 and 1.4320.



Yen

General overview

Japan celebrated Children's Day and its markets were closed. Services PMI in China by Caixin was the focus of investors' attention (51.8 vs. expectations 52.6).

The price is finding the first support at 106.60, the next one is at 105.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 107.40, the next one is at 108.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 108.20 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 109.00.

Franc

General overview

Switzerland celebrated Feast of the Ascension; its markets were closed. Initial Jobless Claims were under focus yesterday (274K vs. expectations 260K).

The price is finding the first support at 0.9660, the next one is at 0.9580. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement, forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9850.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

09.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

Last week the US Federal Reserve Bank did not exclude the possibility of raising the interest rate at next meeting in June. The US labor reports were last week key events. The USA published Non-Farm (160K vs. expectations 202K). Unemployment Rate remained at the same level 5%.

No important news was published in the Eurozone and the UK. The pairs EUR/USD and GBP/USD decreased by the end of the trades.

The US dollar rose against the yen before the labor market reports from the United States. According to the latest report, Japanese service sector activity declined in April suggesting that the country economy slowed down.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Industrial production in Spain slightly supported the euro last Friday (2.8% vs. forecast 1.7%). Meanwhile, the Fed rate expectations are too pessimistic and the ECB policy does not respond completely to the current economic situation. The USA published Non-Farm (160K vs. expectations 202K).

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1350 soon, the next target will be the level of 1.1260.



Pound

General overview

The US newsflow attracted traders’ attention amid an empty macroeconomic calendar in Britain. Non-Farm Payroll became the main event of the week (160K vs. forecast 202K). The unemployment rate remained at the same place as expected.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.4400 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4320 will be opened.



Yen

General overview

Japan published Monetary Base report (26.8% vs. expectations 29.3%), Service PMI from the Nikkei/Markit (49,3 vs. expectations 50,0). Meanwhile, April unemployment data in the US will allow us to see whether the US economy is strong enough to cope with another interest rates rise. The unemployment rate remained at the same place as expected.

The price is finding the first support at 106.60, the next one is at 105.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 107.40, the next one is at 108.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 107.40 and 108.20.



Franc

General overview

The Swiss National Bank published the Foreign Currency Reserves report for April. (588B vs. previous 576B). The NSHB spoke of its willingness to intervene in the currency market as one of the policy instruments.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9660, the next one is at 0.9580. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9850.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

10.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

William Dudley’s speech (the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York) supported the dollar. According to William Dudley the regulator plans to hike the rate twice this year even though the number of new jobs created in the United States in April has been the lowest in the past seven months. The USA published minor economic data on Monday.

The main drivers for the dollar growth were: new rumors and expectations about the US interest rates increase in the summer, fears of the referendum results in Britain in June and cyclical factors. Meanwhile, the data published in the Eurozone on Monday, showed that the investors’ and analysts’ sentiment had been improved somewhat in May, but concerns about the global economic outlook continued to pressure the market. The Eurogroup decided to give Greece a new tranche in the next few weeks.

Strengthening of the dollar continued to pressure the pound.

According to Taro Aso (the Japanese Finance Minister) Tokyo is ready to intervene in the market if excessive dynamics of the yen will be able to influence the trade statistics and economic indicators. Earlier the yen generally strengthened after the Bank of Japan refrained from implementing fresh easing measures following the results of the April policy meeting, contrary to market expectations.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

European stock markets opened in the green zone. Investors were inclined to risk slowing down the growth of the single European currency. According to the Ministry of the Economy, Factory Orders in Germany strengthened in March due to the increased demand from countries outside the Eurozone (1.9% vs. expectations 0.7%). The figures for February were revised to -0.8% from -1.2%. Still the growth was short-term and the pair decreased be the end of trades.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target – 1.1350. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 1.1260.



Pound

General overview

House Prices from Halifax fell more than expected last month (0.8% compared with 2.2% in the previous month). These data were revised downward from 2.6%. Experts expected the index to decline by 0.4% over the past month.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.4320, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4240.



Yen

General overview

Japanese Finance Ministry announced on Monday that the regulator was ready to implement an intervention if the yen sharply grow in price. Previously, many economists doubt the seriousness of the Ministry of Finance of Japan because of America's negative position with respect to direct intervention by the BoJ.

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 109.00 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 109.80 will be opened after this breakthrough.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

11.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

The calendar of economic events revived the dynamics of the market on Tuesday. The US published Job Openings (5.757M vs. forecast 5.431M).

The single currency slightly rose against the dollar. The euro area published Industrial Production in Germany in March fell more than expected (-1,3% vs. expectations -0,2%), but exports showed a rapid growth (1,9% vs. expectations -0,1%).

The United Kingdom showed Trade Balance that supported the pound. Mark Carney (the Bank of England Governor) warned commercial banks and other financial institutions about a possible rate cut if the UK leaves the European Union.

The yen fell after the Minister of Finance speech on Monday. According to Aso the regulator is ready to intervene if the yen keeps growing. According to Japan Minister of Economy Nobuteru Ishihara he is closely watching the financial markets after the rally of the yen last week.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Germany published weak Industrial Production data for April which pressured the euro. (-1,3% vs. expectations -0,2%). In the Bonds markets, the 10-year government bonds yield in Germany decreased that also played into the hands of "bears".

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1350 and 1.1260.



Pound

General overview

Goods Trade Balance in the UK rose more than expected for the last month, supporting the pound. This indicator (seasonally corrected) showed -11.20B vs. forecast -11.30B. The March data was revised from -11.96В to -11.43В. However, the oil reduction kept putting pressure on the pair GBP/USD. The new oil growth let the pair to grow still it decreased by the end of trades.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.4400 soon, the next target will be 1.4320.



Yen

General overview

No important news was published in Japan. In the Bonds market government bond yields differential decreased (the United States and Japan) which reduced the attractiveness of US he assets. Meanwhile, leading stock indicators in the USA and Europe closed in the "green zone" which traditionally put pressure on the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 109.80, the next one is 110.60.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

12.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

The major pairs corrected against the US dollar yesterday. The EU did not publish anything important and the market volatile was low. The British statistics was not able to impact the market through the main cross-pair euro/pound and all trades were calm and peaceful.

The lack of drivers calmed the UK market. Still the upcoming referendum may become one of the drives in the near future. According to Michael Sanders (the Bank of England Monetary Committee representative) if Britain votes for the exit from the EU, the Central Bank will be forced to raise the rates to 3.5% by the end of 2017, as a way out of the EU union will trigger the collapse of the pound and will increase the inflation.

On Wednesday, the dollar fell against the yen, as investors took profits. This was after the recent rally reaching the two-week highs and the Japanese statements about its readiness for an intervention. However, many investors expect that Japan will stay away from any action to weaken the yen before the G7 meeting.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

In the Bonds markets, the German 10-year government bonds yield reduced which decreased the attractiveness of the European assets. The political component of the day was the speech of Nowotny (the ECB member). According to Nowotny it is desirable to keep the issue of national bonds in alongside with Eurobonds.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential rebound down targets are the support levels of 1.1350, 1.1260.



Pound

General overview

Industrial Production in the United Kingdom for March came below the consensus forecast. (0.1% vs. expectations 0.3%). In the afternoon, the trading was defined by Crude Oil Stocks change in the US (-3.410M vs. forecast 0.714M, previous value 2.784M).

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target – 1.4400. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 1.4320.



Yen

General overview

The growth of "risk appetite" had a positive impact on investor's sentiment. The leading stock exchanges showed optimism which pressured the yen as a funding currency. Meanwhile, the government bonds yield differential (the US and Japanese) had been declining for several consecutive trading days. However the pair USD/JPY fell on the Wednesday trades.

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations

The pair can decrease to the support level of 108.20. We do not exclude the growth to 109.00.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

13.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

Although the dollar was supported by the returned risk appetite, the stability of the world economy remained uncertain. The US published Initial Jobless Claims number (294K vs. expectations 270K). The political event of the day were the speeches of Rosengren E. and Mester L. (the Fed representatives). According to Mester the risks related with the Fed forecasts should not have any impact on the monetary policy management. Rosengren suggested that the risks of keeping the rates unchanged seem too low for too long term of time.

Germany published Wholesale Price Index (0,3%m/m vs. expectations 0,2% m/m), the Eurozone published Industrial Production (-0.8% m/m vs. expectations 0.1% m/m).

The Bank of England meeting was the main event of the day. The regulator left the rate unchanged at 0.5%. The inflation report of the Central Bank was the focus of our attention as well. We expect that the increase in assessment of the inflation in the current year could push the pound upwards and neutralize concerns regarding the cost of lending decrease. The Central Banks expects the inflation to return to 0.2%.

The dollar grew against the yen amid the short positions closing. Still the uncertainty of global market growth prospects continued to pressure the US currency.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The Eurozone published Industrial Production for March (-0,8% vs. expectations 0,1%). The 10-year government bonds yield in Germany grew which played into the hands of the euro bulls.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1450. After breaking 1.1450 the buyers may go to 1.1550



Pound

General overview

The Bank of England inflation report was the main event of Thursday. As expected the Central Bank comments regarding the economy and the inflation growth were moderate negative. The UK regulator left the rate unchanged at the level of 0,5%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement forming a “Golden cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.4400 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4320 will be opened.



Yen

General overview

According to Haruhiko Kuroda (the head of the Bank of Japan) it will be hard for the Ministry of Finance to weaken the yen to increase exports. The dynamics of the debt market also indicated an increase in demand for Japanese assets. The government bonds yield differential (US and Japanese) continued to decline.

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target is 109.80. If the price falls it will get to 108.20.



Franc

General overview

Uncertainty regarding the future of global growth continued to pressure the US currency. The US published Initial Jobless Claims (294K vs. forecast 277K and the previous value 274K).

The price is finding the first support at 0.9660, the next one is at 0.9580. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9750. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 0.9850.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

17.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar fell on Monday. Earlier it strengthened when the strong US reports (Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment) lowered investors' concerns about the growth of the economy. The positive statistics also revived expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise the interest rates sooner than expected.

Monday trading was weak with low volatility amid the empty economic calendar. The financial markets in Germany and France did not work celebrating Monday of the Holy Spirit. The UK did not publish any important news either.

On Monday, the yen lost its previous gains against the dollar, falling after the growth in the previous days (due to disappointing Chinese economic reports).

Machine Tool Orders in Japan, the Fed report, Consumer Prices and Industrial Production in the US will be the focus of our attention this week.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

No important news were published on Monday. Most European markets were closed to celebrate the Day of the Holy Spirit. In the Bonds Market the 10-year government bonds yield in Germany declined which reduced the attractiveness of the European assets.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1260 and 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The United Kingdom published Housing Price index for May (0,4% m/m vs. previous 1,3% m/m). Empire State Manufacturing Index was the only USA report that was worth mentioning (58 vs. expectations 59).

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4460.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.4320 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.4240.



Yen

General overview

The price index for corporate goods (CGPI) in Japan decreased in the contrary to our expectations. According to the Bank of Japan the index came in at -4.2% compared to -3.8% in the previous month. Experts had expected a growth to -3.7%.

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 109.80. We do not exclude the falls to 108.20.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

18.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

Tuesday turned out to be full with economic news. The US statistics was the main driver of the day. The States published the Core Consumer Price Index (0,2% that coincided with the forecast) and Industrial Production (0,7% vs. forecasted 0,3%) reports. Williams and Lockhart (the Federal Reserve members) gave their speeches. Williams supported the idea to raise the rates two or three times this year. According to Lockhart they do not plan the negative rates scenario.

The Eurozone just published their positive Trade Balance for March (28.6B vs. forecast 22.5B).

The pound reduced its gains against the dollar, when the inflation in the UK slowed in April for the first time since September 2015. Retail Price Index increased by 0,3% y/y, after growing by 0,5% in March. Traders expected the inflation to remain at 0,5%, but the British inflation has been below the target level of 2% for more than 2 years.

The Japanese Industrial Production sharply accelerated in March (3,8% vs. previous 3,6%). Capacity Utilization increased from -5,4% to 3,2% in March, still these figures could not help the yen.

Image

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

No important news were published on Monday. Most European markets were closed to celebrate the Day of the Holy Spirit. In the Bonds Market the 10-year government bonds yield in Germany declined which reduced the attractiveness of the European assets.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1260 and 1.1150.

Image

Pound

General overview

The United Kingdom published Housing Price index for May (0,4% m/m vs. previous 1,3% m/m). Empire State Manufacturing Index was the only USA report that was worth mentioning (58 vs. expectations 59).

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4460.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.4320 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.4240.

Image

Yen

General overview

The price index for corporate goods (CGPI) in Japan decreased in the contrary to our expectations. According to the Bank of Japan the index came in at -4.2% compared to -3.8% in the previous month. Experts had expected a growth to -3.7%.

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 109.80. We do not exclude the falls to 108.20.

Image

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

Image

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

19.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

The Fed minutes publication was the main event of Wednesday. Traders expected positive comments and hints regarding the possible rate hike. According to the minutes most of the fed members believe that the regulator can hike the rate in June if the economy state allows. After the minutes publications the dollar strengthened all over the market.

The Eurozone published the inflation report. The consumer price inflation in the Euro area remained unchanged at - 0.2%.

The pound was supported by the latest poll regarding the upcoming referendum. According to the poll: the number of British people who support staying in the EU are 8% more than those who want to leave. The UK published Unemployment Rate (remained at 5.1%), Average Earnings including Bonus (2.0% vs. expectations 1.7%) and Claimant Count Change (-2.4K vs. previous 14.7K).

The Yen was supported by the news that the Japanese economy is developing at the fastest pace in the first quarter. Still the Japanese currency lost its gains due to investors' expection that the government new measures will stimulate the economy growth.




Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The US dollar rose against the euro on Wednesday, due to expectations that the Fed would hike the rates. The Euro area published CPI for April (0,2% vs. expectations -0,2%).

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.1150, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.1040.



Pound

General overview

England published unemployment data: Claimant Count Change (-2.4K vs. forecast 4.0K), Unemployment rate remained unchanged (5,1%), Average Earnings including Bonus (2,0% vs. expectations 1,7%).

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4760.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.4670 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.4760.



Yen

General overview

The Japanese preliminary Gross Domestic Product for Q1 strengthened (+ 0,4% vs. forecast 0,1%). The GDP grew by 1,7% during the first quarter (on an annual basis). Hopes that the Bank of Japan will soften the monetary policy further significantly decreased amid the improved statistics in Japan and the United States.

The price is finding the first support at 109.80, the next one is at 109.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 110.60, the next one is at 111.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 110.60, the next one is 111.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman