MoneyOnComputer

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

30.04.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar has already been demonstrating weakness for four trading days in a row - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished at the mark of 96.16 the last day. During the day the pair EUR/USD was in the demand after the US negative consumer confidence release by the Conference Board. By the end of the day the pair euro/dollar had increased.

Despite the UK GDP first quarter weak release for the pair GBP/USD also showed an upward trend. The index came out at the level of 0.3% instead of the expected 0.5% that pointed out to the UK economic slowdown. Nevertheless, the overall negative trend within the dollar did not allow bears to strengthen its position. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had increased.

The US stock market upward trend did not allow the Japanese yen to strengthen its position. At the moment the pair USD/JPY quotations reached the level of 119.20, after that we saw a sharp decrease in the market and as a result the trading day ended with the quotations decrease.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting results were the main event of the yesterday. As the US unemployment rate is declining, it does not disturb the Fed – we should pay attention to inflation. The inflation expectations are still quite low.

The upward trend is reaching the resistance level of 1.1150.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1050 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0925.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Traders continue to ignore the UK negative macroeconomic statistics which indicates the strong buyers’ presence. The Unites States published the GDP release for the first quarter. Most leading indicators point out to the weak economic growth and in this regard we expect the data output within the range of 0.7-1% which will put pressure on the US dollar.

Trading volumes are in an increased zone, but they are gradually declining downwards. The rising trend indicates towards the formed correction that has not been confirmed yet.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5460, the next one is at 1.5550.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5460 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.5300.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

As now we should not expect from the US Federal Reserve comments about the monetary policy tightening - the dollar will be under pressure against its major competitors. It should also be noted that the Federal Reserve gold foreign exchange reserves in the first quarter have significantly declined that indicates the payments negative balance strong increase and the main negative factor is the strong dollar.

The formed strong consolidation is near the resistance level of 119.20.

The price is finding the first support at 118.30, the next one is at 117.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 118.30 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 117.50.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

01.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The dollar strengthened against the pound and the yen. Earlier the US dollar was knocked out by the first quarter GDP negative release. The index came out at the level of 0.2% instead of the expected 1%. The personal consumption expenditures main index amounted to 0.9%.

This report is negative as the economic growth slowdown is obvious. The dollar revaluation had a negative impact on the US economy. The US Federal Reserve announced its monetary policy meeting results. The FED did not give the market a signal about the first interest rate increase that pointed out to the personal consumption decrease and the exports weakness. The Fed called a low inflation a temporary phenomenon as well as the low GDP. Against this background, the US dollar was under pressure.

We can expect the Old World moderately positive inflation data for April amid the euro area M-3 monetary aggregate growth as well as the Germany CPI increase. By the end of the day the pair euro/dollar had increased.

Great Britain did not publish important statistics. Therefore, dynamic was fully caused by the technical factors and the previously formed sentiments. As a result the pound has decreased.

The Bank of Japan monetary policy decision did not impress the market as the regulator has kept everything unchanged. The pair dollar/yen grew at the end of the trades.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US first quarter GDP release disappointed traders with the weak data. Its weak growth by 0.2% is a result of the US dollar revaluation. It should also be noted the personal consumption expenditures reduction for the first quarter which is a negative factor for the inflation. The low inflation will deter the Fed from the monetary policy tightening.

Buyers have broken through the resistance level of 1.0925 for the fourth time. The level breakthrough was amid the increased volume. The resistance levels of 1.1050 and 1.1150 were also broken upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1150 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.1050, 1.0925.




Pound (GBP)

General overview

Despite the fact that the British pound has significantly strengthened for the last two weeks - the short-term uptrend is not complete yet. However we noted a downward rebound yesterday.

The UK GDP for the first quarter came out higher than in the United States. The UK GDP quarterly growth has lagged behind the US for the last nine months, but now the differential is changed which will put some pressure on the US dollar.

The British pound has been steadily strengthening against the US dollar for the third week. The prices growth is amid higher volumes which indicate the buyers increased interest to continue the bullish trend. The pair slightly corrected on the yesterday’s trades.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The trend is a down side. We expect the level of 1.5200 testing soon.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Bank of Japan will not increase the QE program amid the oil prices growth. This factor will not put pressure on the Japanese yen. The US first quarter GDP negative report froze the bulls’ enthusiasm in global stock markets that will make some traders to fix part of the long. This factor will commit the carry trade transactions which will support the demand for the Japanese yen.

The price has not been able to break through below the support level of 118.30 for the sixth week. The pair rebounded upwards and broke through the resistance level of 119.20.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 120.40. After breaking 120.40 the buyers may go to 121.60.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc has rapidly grown against the dollar after the US GDP weak report, according to the preliminary assessment, its growth amounted to + 0.2% in the first quarter against + 1.0% and 2.2% in the previous period.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9280. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9540. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

04.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

There was a multidirectional trend on the Forex market. At the end of the day the pair EUR/USD decreased amid the German 10-year bond yields increase relative to its main competitors. The US manufacturing sector in the first quarter showed a significant decline and taking into account the new industrial orders decrease it is difficult to expect the data better than the forecasted medians. In this regard, the US dollar will not be able to get support and to compensate for some lost ground.

On the contrary, after setting the fresh 2-month high of 1.5490 the pair GBP/USD was hit by the sales wave amid the long positions profit taking. The British pound can be further supported by the oil prices growth. On the other hand, the pair EUR/GBP cross-rate significant growth amid the Germany and the UK bond yields reduction may put pressure on the pound. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had decreased.

During the day the pair USD/JPY was in demand after the Bank of Japan negative economic forecasts publication. The GDP and inflation forecasts encouraged bulls for the long positions opening and against this background, the pair dollar / yen has increased.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro medium-term correction is still in force and bulls still open long positions on dips. The euro zone will not please traders with the important macroeconomic statistics and in this connection the traders’ attention will be focused on the US manufacturing sector business climate publication from the ISM.

The manufacturing sector showed significant decline in the first quarter and taking into account the new industrial orders decrease it is difficult to expect the data better than the forecasted medians. In this regard, the US dollar will not be able to get support and to compensate for some lost ground.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the fall towards 1.1150 and a consolidation further on we expect a growth



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Great Britain and the United States published the manufacturing sector business climate reports. The industrial sector is showing clear signs of slowdown in both countries and we noted weak releases amid the new production orders low volume.

On the one hand, the British pound can be further supported by the oil prices increase. On the other hand, the pair EUR/GBP cross-rate significant growth amid the Germany and the UK negative bond yields will put pressure on the pound.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5100 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound target is the resistance level of 1.5200.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Firstly, it is difficult to expect the United States ISM manufacturing index positive data. Secondly, sales on the US stock market after the GDP weak report publication for the first quarter may cause a wave of carry trade transactions and against this background the Japanese yen may receive additional support.

Sellers have failed to break through the strong support level of 118.30. The pair rebounded upwards and broke through the resistance level.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 120.40 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 121.60.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Fed information has frozen the bears’ enthusiasm within the dollar. Obviously, the market decided to take time out for a more detailed US Central Bank statements analysis that appeared after the FOMC meeting which indicated that the door for interest rates increase is still quite wide opened.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9280, the next one is at 0.9160. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9540.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

05.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was able to compensate some lost ground - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.38. When the pair EUR/USD reached the mark of 1.1290 it declined to the level of 1.1150. At the end of the day the pair euro/dollar had decreased.

The pair GBP/USD is consolidating after it fell under the powerful sales wave amid the manufacturing sector PMI index negative macroeconomic release. The total index fell to its lowest level since September 2014. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had decreased.

The pair USD/JPY has ignored the ISM US manufacturing sector business activity weak release. Bulls actively built up long positions and against this background the trading day ended with the quotations growth.

According to the ISM report, the US manufacturing sector economic activity continued to increase in April. However, the sector activity index has unexpectedly changed. The ISM noted that the PMI index was 51.5 in April, but it has not increased from the previous month.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

There was not any important macroeconomic statistics. We saw a rebound from the strong support level of 94.77 for three consecutive trading days within the dollar index (USDX) that indicates the strong buyers’ presence and the market possible reversal.

The "Greek question" negotiations have tightened, but the Germany and Greece 10-year bond yields decreased significantly in April that point out to the risk reduction which is a positive factor for the euro.

The resistance level 1.1260 has stopped the three-week euro uptrend. The pair rebounded from this level to the support level of 1.1150.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1050 may lead to a price rebound upwards.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

After the Markit Economics manufacturing sector PMI index weak data traders sold the British pound which proves the strong buyers’ absence in the market. Investors have ignored the UK negative macroeconomic releases for the last two weeks and built up long positions. Yesterday there was a public holiday in the UK.

The three-week pound strengthening against the US dollar stopped at the resistance level of 1.5460. The level testing was followed by a small consolidation with the following price rebound downwards. The rebound from the level was on the increased volume. The pair is testing the support level of 1.5100.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5300.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

In the absence of Japan and the US important macroeconomic statistics investors will focus their attention on the stock and bond market dynamics. The Tokyo stock markets were closed due to the public holiday. On the contrary, there was the Japan and the US bond yields increase on the debt market which is a bullish factor for the pair.

Buyers were able to break through and consolidate above the round resistance level of 119.20. At the moment the mark of 119.20 is the strong support.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 120.40 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 121.60.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

06.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The market showed the calm trade amid the lack of important macroeconomic statistics as well as the UK and Japan public holidays. Traders do not hurry to open positions because all the important events of the week are ahead.

The dollar correction stopped. The Eurozone and the US first manufacturing sector business climate reports pointed out to the differential shift in favor of the euro area in March and April. Secondly, the Germany and the US 10-year bond yields are declining which is a positive factor for the euro.

Yesterday the world leading stock markets opened the trading week with the quotations growth that would contribute to the building up the carry trade position within the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

The US Commerce Department published the report that showed the number of industrial production orders sharp increase by 2.1% in March after the revised decrease by 0.1% in February.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We received the ISM releases that are important for the US dollar. Now the traders’ attention will be focused on the April labor market release on Friday May 8th. The Eurozone and the US manufacturing sector business climate reports point out to the differential shift in favor of the euro area in March and April.

The prices decreased amid the low volatility and the low trading volumes. Having broken through the support level of 1.1150, sellers have opened the way to the strong support level of 1.1050. The strong support level of 1.1050 test was followed by the euro growth. The resistance level of 1.1150 was broken.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the growth towards 1.1260 further on we expect a fall.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Markit Economics published the construction sector business activity release. If the trade balance release does not cause the strong market reaction as the March report and the March data that include the GDP indicator for the first quarter, the ISM services sector business activity report can be a signal for the British pound mid-term correction completion in the case of positive data. The US dollar will be under pressure.

The pound correction has moved into the long-term consolidation framework above the mark of 1.5100. The formed consolidation is amid the low volumes that is a signal for the reversal upwards. The pair increased and tested the resistance level of 1.5200.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5200 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support level of 1.5015.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

For several days the Japanese yen has been the weakest asset among the five world leading currencies. Investors are inclined negatively towards the yen after the Bank of Japan lowered the GDP and inflation forecasts for 2015 and 2016 financial year.

The world leading stock markets opened the trading week with the quotations growth that will contribute to the building up carry trade position within the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

Until recently, the level of 119.20 was a strong resistance. Now it is no less the strong support. It should be noted that the mark of 120.40 was tested at the very low volumes. The pair rebounded downwards after this testing.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The bulls’ target is the level 120.40.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

07.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was under pressure against its major competitors. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had increased amid the energy prices growth. The Brent crude oil quotations set this week fresh maximum.

Despite the April PMI index construction sector weak release the pair GBP/USD was also in demand during the day. The UK and the US negative bond yields reduction with black gold quotations increase encouraged bulls to long. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had increased.

By the end of the day the pair USD/JPY had decreased despite the US service sector business activity positive release from ISM. The index came out at the highest level since December 2014 that indicates the US economy recovery after recession in the first quarter.

The ISM service sector employment rate for April has shown the maximum increase for the last six months. The four-week f jobless claims showed slight decrease which is also a positive factor for the labor market. However the ADP private sector employment release disappointed the market.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro zone will not please the traders with the important macroeconomic statistics and the traders’ attention will be drawn to the US data. The agency ADP issued the private sector employment release. Traders awaited the ADP positive data release which would support the US dollar. Still the release was a negative one that supported the euro and the pair grew.

The debt and commodity market dynamics indicates the uptrend within the single European currency. The Brent crude oil breaks through this year new highs which is a negative factor for the dollar.

The euro demand reversed towards the uptrend. The reversal came after the support level false breakthrough of 1.1150 amid the increased volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the resistance at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential increase target is the resistance level of 1.1450.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Center for Macroeconomic Research Markit Economics published the UK the service sector data. The manufacturing and construction sectors two previous reports disappointed investors with the weak figures. The pair EUR/GBP cross-rate dynamics also plays into the bears’ hands within the British pound.

The rebound from the level of 1.5100 was followed on the increased volume and allowed buyers to break through the level of 1.5200.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the growth towards 1.5300 further on we expect a fall to 1.5200 and 1.5100.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japan banks were closed on the occasion of the state holiday. In this regard, we expect a low volatility during the Asian trading session. Investors will buy the quotations reduction amid the ADP negative data. The Australian bond yields demonstrate high growth that may contribute to the carry trade transactions increase. The pair AUD/JPY cross-rate had increased which is an excellent proof of that.

The price consolidation above the resistance level of 119.20 was followed by the level of 120.40 testing and the latest decrease.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 119.20 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound target is the resistance level of 120.40.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

08.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD was in demand amid the April ADP private sector employment weak data. The index came out at the level of 169 thousand which is the lowest level since January 2014. However, the pair euro/dollar had decreased.

The GBP/USD has grown after the UK service sector business activity strong data publication. Then the pair consolidated. The final indicator came out at the mark of 59.5 that is the highest level since September 2014. This week the main attention within the pound will be paid to the UK elections which took place yesterday.

After the ADP weak data the US stock market sales have increased pressure on the pair USD/JPY. Yesterday the Japan markets started to work after a long weekend this week. By the end of the day the pair had increased.

Today we expect the report for which the market has been waiting the whole week: the US April Non-Farms release. In addition, the US will release the unemployment rate report. Both reports, along with the UK elections results will cause high volatility in the market.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro zone and the United States have disappointed traders with the negative macroeconomic releases. At the end of March the Old World retail sales decreased by 0.8% that point out to the weak domestic demand in the first quarter. The agency ADP has reported the new jobs low level in the private sector. Today, the US non-farm payrolls employment report will influence the market.

Buyers have broken through and consolidated above 1.1260. The breakthrough was on the increased volume. Then the pair tested this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the resistance at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the resistance level of 1.1450.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Yesterday there were the UK Parliament elections. Their results will have a direct impact on the currency. There was observed the US and the UK 10-year negative bond yield increase on the debt market which is a bearish factor for the British pound.

Having broken through the downward channel, buyers consolidated above 1.5200.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.3665. After breaking 1.3665 the buyers may go to 1.3720.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japanese banks began their work after a long weekend. There was a bearish sentiment in the Tokyo stock market. In this regard, we noted the 119th figure testing followed by the rebound upwards. The Japanese yen with the US dollar is the market weakest currency asset and now we cannot count on the pair dollar/yen strong sales.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 119.20 breakthrough down the way to the support 118.30 will be opened.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc rose against the dollar after the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank governor Kocherlakota said that the dollar had grown substantially the last year. In Kacherlakota’s opinion interest rates increase in 2015 is inappropriate.

Meanwhile, today during his speech the Federal Reserve Chairman Jeanette Yellen said that low interest rates were necessary to achieve the objectives which would have a positive impact on the financial stability.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9160, the next one is at 0.9060. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9160. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9060.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

11.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was able to compensate some of the lost positions - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 94.71. The pair EUR/USD set up the maximum near the mark of 1.1391 in the morning after which there was the long positions profit-taking wave amid the US jobless claims positive report. As a result, the trading day ended with the quotations decrease.

On the contrary, the pair GBP/USD set up the minimum at the level of 1.5162 in the morning after which there was quotations increase amid the pair EUR/GBP cross-rate decrease because of the long positions profit-taking. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had increased.

During the day the pair USD/JPY was in demand amid the US stock market positive trend. Nevertheless by the end of the day quotations had decreased.


Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The ADP and ISM leading indicators employment, published last week, have not identified the trend, taking into consideration the manufacturing sector employment decrease as well as the ADP data output at the level of 169 thousand.

However, it is not necessary that the traders will actively sell the US dollar. Firstly, the labor force growth by 200 thousand per month is a positive factor for the US economy. Secondly, the debt and the commodity markets dynamics indicate the bullish sentiment predominance within the US dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1260 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.1150, 1.1050.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

We should pay attention to the UK March trade balance. Two key factors point out to the weak output: the pound revaluation against the euro as well as demand decline in the euro area (the euro zone is the main UK trading partner). If we pay attention to the seasonal dynamics- the March month was negative for exporters.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5460, the next one is at 1.5550.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to fixate above 1.5460 for a steady growth. The way to the marks 1.5550 and 1.5670 in this case.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

We expect the side trend development within the range of 119.20- 120.40. On the one hand, the non-farm payrolls moderately positive data will have some pressure on the yen and we may expect the prices decrease. On the other hand, the oil market correction with the US and Japan bond yields increase will support demand for the US dollar and will not let it decline heavily.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 120.40. After breaking 120.40 the buyers may go to 121.60.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The pair dollar/franc will consolidate in the higher range after on Thursday it reached the three month low of 0.9060.

The US non-farm employment data can influence on its dynamics. The pair is supported by the improved market sentiment towards the US dollar, the Switzerland negative interest rates and the intervention threat by the Swiss National Bank with the Swiss franc sales and within the growing pair euro/franc.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9280, the next one is at 0.9160. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9540.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

12.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

There was a multidirectional trend in the Forex market yesterday. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had decreased amid the pair EUR/GBP quotations decline after the UK parliamentary elections results announcement.

After two unsuccessful days the GBP/USD could finish the trades in the "green zone". Traders reacted positively to the conservatives’ victory in parliamentary elections. By the end of the day the pair pound/dollar quotations have increased.

The USD/JPY has been trading in the flat near 119.65 -120.20. The US non-farm payrolls increased by 223 thousand in April. The unemployment rate fell to the level of 5.4%. Average earnings increased by 0.1% which is worse than traders had expected.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

In general, the USA unemployment data are good – the employment growth points out to the economy recovery after the first quarter recession.

However, the inflationary component has disappointed the market. The average hourly earnings came below the traders’ expectations while the March figure was revised in the negative side. The two-year Treasury bond yields reacted to the release with a decrease by 10.8 basis points that indicate the low inflation expectations.

Having broken through the intermediate support level of 1.1260, sellers continued the downward trend amid the increased trading volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a weakbuy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.1150 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.1050 will be opened.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK and the US bond yields fell by 11.8 basis points which indicate that the debt market participants reacted positively to the conservatives’ victory in parliamentary elections.

The Bank of England announced the monetary policy meeting results: key interest rate has remained the same - 0.5%.

The level of 1.5390 retesting was followed by the upward rebound and the previous high update of 1.5497. The resistance level of 1.5460 and 1.5550 were broken.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is at 1.5750.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the support levels of 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The April US labor market release supported the demand for the US stock market as traders received a signal that the FOMC would not rush to the monetary policy tightening. This factor is a positive one for the pair as it will contribute to demand for the carry trade transactions through the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

In the absence of fundamental factors yesterday the trading day was held in the framework of the low volatility. There was formed a short-term consolidation near the level of 120.00 followed by a slight growth.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 120.40 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 121.60.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

13.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

There was a multidirectional trend in the Forex market yesterday. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had increased amid the Germany and the US negative bond yields increase.

By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had increased. Traders continue to buy the British pound amid the Conservative victory in the parliamentary elections. It should also be noted that the debt market dynamics does not support bulls - the UK 10-year bond yields are declining relative to their US and Germany counterparts and in this regard, after the next resistance level testing we expect profit-taking on the long positions that may cause a rebound.

By the end of the day the pair USD/JPY had decreased. Earlier the pair grew amid the carry trade transactions increase through the Japanese yen as a funding currency. The day before we had observed a modest correction after the Friday's quotations strong rise and taking into account the fact that the Nasdaq showed its smallest decline - we may expect demand for the risky assets.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The situation around the Greek debt still excites the investors’ minds. As it was expected, Athens had to repay the debt to the IMF in the amount of approximately € 770 million. Taking into account the Germany and the Greece bond yields reduction we expect that the Greeks will be able to meet its obligations to international lenders. However, this factor will not support bulls.

Firstly, we expect the interesting reports publication. Secondly, the debt market dynamics is on the bears’ side - the Germany and the US negative bond yields are increasing. Thirdly, the oil market has stabilized; we have not observed the upward movements for the last few days which would put pressure on the US dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1150 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.1050.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

In the morning we expect the British pound quotations growth. According to the British Industry Confederation February data, the manufacturing sector PMI index growth in March with the production orders increase allowed us to expect the moderately positive data output.

The British pound is growing along the entire market - investors open long positions almost within all cross-rates, led by the pound. Taking into consideration that institutional investors prefer to keep positions for a long period of time – we may expect the upward trend continuation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is at 1.5950.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5775, the next one is 1.5950.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

During the day we expect the moderately upward trend and demand for the US stock market which will encourage bulls to long. The day before we had observed a modest correction after Friday's quotations strong rise and taking into account the fact that the Nasdaq showed the smallest decline - we can expect demand for the risky assets.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 120.40. After breaking 120.40 the buyers may go to 121.60.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

14.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar is under pressure - the USDX finished the trading day at the mark of 94.51. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had increased amid the energy prices growth as well as the Germany and the US negative bond yields reduction.

By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had increased amid the industrial production positive release. In March the index increased by 0.5% which can allow us to count on the first quarter GDP revision for the better. The UK short-term and long-term government bond yields can be the best indicator for the market sentiment determination within the pair pound/dollar. The spread has been increasing for the last two months that point out to the low market expectations regarding the monetary policy tightening.

By the end of the day the pair USD/JPY had decreased amid the oil quotations growth which put pressure on the US dollar.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We pay attention to the euro area first quarter positive GDP publication. The ECB soft monetary policy is starting to bear fruit. The euro low rate has increased the European products competitiveness outside the euro area which has grown the trade surplus. The export growth may lay a good foundation for the unemployment reduction and the consumer spending increase in the future.

The United States published the retail sales report for April – the data remained unchanged. The correction from the resistance level of 1.1260 turned upwards - towards the current trend.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential increase targets are two resistance level of: 1.1450 and 1.1675.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

We pay attention to the Bank of England inflation quarter report. On the one hand, the energy prices growth have increased the inflation expectations - the UK 10-year bond yields are now above the level of 2%. On the other hand, the low level of average earnings in the first quarter restrained inflation and the private consumption.

As the soft monetary policy is carried out in periods of low inflation – we should not exclude positive comments. Also we should not forget about the pound revaluation against the euro.

The uptrend has stopped for a short time below the intermediate resistance level of 1.5670. The price reached the level on the lower volumes. After the resistance level of 1.5670 breakthrough the level of 1.5775 was tested.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is at 1.5950.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.5775 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance 1.5950 will be opened.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

We observe the Japan and the US negative bond yields strong increase on the bond market that will provide demand for the US dollar. The Australian bond yields are now higher the level of 3% which will enhance the carry trade transactions within the Japanese yen. Investors will form the cheap yen loans and direct them to the higher-yielding instruments purchases. Yesterday the pair AUD/JPY cross-rate increased by 1.1% which is the best proof of this trend.

The price is finding the first support at 118.30, the next one is at 117.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 118.30 soon. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 117.50.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

15.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

Yesterday the pair EUR/USD increased amid the US retail sales negative reports. Traders had expected its growth by 0.3%, but the final figure came out at the zero mark. The April US PPI report will not be able to provide strong support for the US dollar. In the first month of the second quarter, the US 10-year bond yields have grown by 10 basis points that indicate the inflation expectations moderate increase.

Despite the Bank of England inflation negative report the pair GBP/USD still managed to finish the day in the positive territory amid the US retail sales weak data. By the end of the day quotations had increased.

The US weak economic data cheered bears to short with the USD/JPY which by the end of the day had consolidated. The debt market dynamics is also now on the bears’ side - the Japan and the US negative bond yields reduction will support demand for the Japanese yen.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US and the euro zone GDP differential has increased by 0.2% in the first quarter which will support the euro in the short term.

The US retail sales moderately negative data indicate that now we should not wait for the private consumption strong increase which will contribute to the strong economic growth in the second quarter.

Due to the level of 1.1260 breakthrough buyers opened the way to the maximum that is the resistance level of 1.1450.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1150 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.1050.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Bank of England published its quarterly report which has lowered the GDP and inflation forecasts that also pointed out to the construction sector weakness and low investment that inhibit the labor productivity growth. Once again the monetary regulator noted that the strong pound (the pair EUR/GBP decline) had a negative impact on inflation.

The British pound continues to trade towards the upward trend. There was the resistance level of 1.5775 testing.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is at 1.5950.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.5670, 1.5550.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Despite the bullish sentiment predominance on the world leading stock exchanges as well as the carry trade transactions growth within the pair AUD/JPY – the Japanese yen is in demand within the context of the US dollar sales. The Japan and the US bond yields reduction will support the demand for the Japanese yen.

Having not reached the last week maximum of 120.40, the upward trend reversed sharply downwards, breaking through the support level of 119.20. We observed the consolidation at this level.

The price is finding the first support at 118.30, the next one is at 117.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 120.40.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc could strengthen on Wednesday amid the dollar decline.

The US dollar has suffered serious losses against all its major currencies after the unexpectedly US retail sales weak data publication. Retail sales amounted to + 0.0% in April while it was forecasted + 0.2%, but the sales excluding cars amounted to + 0.1% against + 0.5%.

The price is finding the support at 0.9060. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9160, the next one is at 0.9280.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9280. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9370.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

18.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD has been in the positive area for three trading days in a row. At this time the quotations growth was after the US April PPI weak data. The report points out that it is quite early to talk about the inflationary pressure growth in the world leading economy now.

During the day the pair GBP/USD also showed more modest growth because of the EUR/GBP correction and a consolidation as well as the investors’ concerns about the Bank of England inflation and GDP forecasts.

At the end of the day the pair USD/JPY has strengthened amid the US stock market strong growth as well as the US and Japan negative bond yields increase. The pair fell and closed the trades neutrally.

It should also be noted that investors have negative attitude towards the US dollar and actively get rid of it – yesterday the dollar index basket (USDX) consolidated below the 94th figure. Still, we expect profit-taking on the long positions amid the US industrial production moderately positive data for April.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The German 10-year bond yields are growing relative to the US and the UK counterparts which may support the demand for the euro. The commodity market dynamics is also playing against the US dollar now. The commodities quotations growth has a negative impact on the dollar as the cost of raw materials was denominated in the US dollar during the dollar prices growth.

Having broken through the strong resistance level of 1.1260, the price corrected to this level to check it for strength. Now this resistance is playing the role of a reference support now. Then the pair tested the resistance level of 1.1450.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen the Kijun-sen show aт upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.1450 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1675 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK 10-year bond yields are close to the level of 2% now which may support the demand for the pound. The average earnings growth and the oil market upward trend with the unemployment decline to 5.5% can allow us to count on inflation in the short term and these expectations are pushing the pair upwards.

The British pound is actively strengthening against the US dollar. Almost without correction the price rose up sharply, having reached the level of 1.5775.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is at 1.5950.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow. After breaking 1.5775 the buyers may go to 1.5950.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Bullish sentiments in the US stock market with the US and Japan bond yields increase will support demand for the pair USD/JPY. On the other hand, investors sell the US dollar along the entire market which cannot allow us to count on the strong dollar growth.

The price is finding the first support at 118.30, the next one is at 117.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 119.20, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 118.30 and 117.50.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar slightly strengthened its position against the franc after the published data showed that US initial jobless claims for the last week amounted to 264K against forecasted 273K. The index was near 15-years low that indicates the labor market positive trends.

The price is finding the support at 0.9060. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9160, the next one is at 0.9280.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short. When the pair consolidates below the level of 0.9160, we can open deals to the level of 0.9060.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

19.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was supported - the dollar index basket (USX) finished the trading day at the mark of 93.29. The pair EUR/USD increased after the US industrial production and consumer confidence weak macroeconomic statistics publication from the University of Michigan. At the end of the day the pair decreased.

The pair GBP/USD finished the trading day in the negative territory - quotations declined amid the profit taking on the long positions after the eight- days’ quotations growth.

The winner in the bears and the bulls’ dispute within the pair USD/JPY were the bulls. The upward trend in the world leading stock markets is supported by the dollar demand and at the moment quotations reached the mark of 119.95, but after the US negative reports the Japanese yen was able to recover lost ground. Then the pair grew again.

Taking into account the US industrial production and consumer confidence negative macroeconomic statistics– we cannot count on the US dollar strong growth.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The Michigan University negative release suggests that Americans are inclined to save more than spend and this is a negative factor for the economy.

In the light of this the US the Germany negative bond yields continued to decline which supports the demand for the euro. Moreover, the Germany and the UK bond yields also significantly declined which would contribute to the pair EUR/GBP cross-rate growth and may also support the euro against the dollar.

The upward trend is still preserved despite the divergence formation on the trading volumes. Having broken through the resistance level of 1.1260, the price tested the level of 1.1450. Then the pair rebounded downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1260, 1.1150



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Great Britain and the United States will not please traders with the interesting macroeconomic releases. In view of the debt market negative dynamics (the UK and the US negative bond yields increase) it was noted the bearish sentiment predominance. At the same time the commodity market dynamics may put pressure on the US dollar as the commodity goods growth causes the dollar decline.

Having tested the level of 1.5775, the British pound turned downwards towards correction. The support level of 1.5670 was broken.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is at 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.5670 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.5550 will be opened. The upward bounce potential target is 1.5775.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan has published the March machinery and equipment orders report: the base value amounted to + 2.9% for the month and + 2.6% for the year. The commodity market positive dynamics will put pressure on the US dollar.

The pair tested the level of 119.20 and rebounded upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 120.40 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 119.20, 118.30.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

20.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar strengthened to its major competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 94.31. Traders took profits on the short positions within the US dollar which caused the dollar growth.

The United States can please traders with the construction sector positive data.

The mortgage rate reduction may have a positive impact on the number of issued building permits. However, the Conference Board consumer confidence negative report pointed out that we should not count on the strong deviation from the consensus forecast in a positive direction.

The Consumer Comfort Index, considered by Bloomberg, fell to 43.5 for the week (4-10 May) that is the lowest level since the beginning of March) against 43.7 the previous week. The US economy assessment fell to the five-month low, confidence also fell among the full-time and part-time employed. Retail sales have changed little in April after decrease by 0.2% from January to March. The US economic prospects index fell to 34.5 (the lowest level since mid-December) from 35.8 the previous week.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

There was the euro sales yesterday, still it is too early to talk about the changes within the short-term trend. The euro devaluation with the ECB loose monetary policy strengthened the German exporters’ position which had a positive effect on the Old World leading economies. In this connection, we expected the institute ZEW business climate output slightly better than the forecasted medians that will support the demand for the euro. Nevertheless the release came out worse then the forecasted medians.

The level of 1.1260 breakthrough signals about the upward trend reversal. The support level of 1.1150 was broken.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.1050 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 1.0925 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The National Statistics Office has published the UK April inflation report. The energy cost increase with the labor market positive trend points out to the consumer price index growth. But the negative data put the British pound under a pressure. The US construction sector moderately positive data may force some traders to take profits on the long positions.

The British pound is correcting against the US dollar amid the low volatility. The correctional price reduction was on the low volumes. There was the intermediate support level of 1.5550 breakthrough.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is at 1.5670.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can decrease to the support level of 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US stock market index S & P500 set a fresh historical high which supported the demand for the risky assets and had a positive impact on the pair USD/JPY quotations as investors used the yen as a funding currency to finance transactions within the high-yield instruments.

The trade within the Japanese yen is not clear. The pair was trading for a long time in the range, rebounding from the levels of 120.40 - 119.20. Yesterday the resistance level of 120.40 was broken upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the growth towards 121.60 further on we expect a fall to 120.40, 119.20.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

21.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar strengthened significantly relative to its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.46. The pair EUR/USD came under attack amid the ECB stimulating measures increase rumors. By the end of the day the pair euro/dollar had decreased.

During the day the pair GBP/USD was also under pressure amid the UK April weak inflation data. The CPI went into the negative territory for the first time since 1960 and against this background the trades ended with the quotations decrease despite a correction was observed earlier.

The bullish trends in the world's leading stock markets contributed to demand for the pair USD/JPY which by the end of the day had increased.

Taking in consideration the oil prices decline traders expected demand for the US dollar before the US Federal Reserve last meeting minutes publication. Bearing in mind the US low inflation expectations, we expected the "pigeon rhetoric" in the report and in this regard an upward rebound in the market.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The currency and the commodity markets’ sales with the US Treasury bond yields increase point out to the short-term trend reversal. During the day we noted the bearish sentiment predominance. Yesterday the ECB high-ranked official gave an interview in which he noted that the monetary regulator could increase the rates amid the summer time stimulating measures. Late in the evening the FOMC protocols were published.

The euro decline against the US dollar was followed by the support levels’ breakthrough: 1.1260 and 1.1050. The levels’ breakthroughs were on the increased volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0925 soon.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound was under pressure during the day. The CPI release showed the deflation for the first time since 1960. The Bank of England monetary policy minutes also do not promise dividends to the British pound- the monetary regulator has repeatedly stated about the deflation risks and also stated the fact that the strong pound had a negative impact on consumer prices.

The pound decline against the US dollar reached the strong support level of 1.5460. The pair rebounded upwards to 1.5550 and then it fell again.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is at 1.5670.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the fall towards 1.5460 further on we expect a growth.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan has published the GDP data for the first quarter. The GDP rose up by 0.6% in the first quarter and increased by 2.5% on the annual basis. The GDP rose up by 0.4% in the fourth quarter. The result was higher than the consensus forecast relative to the 0.4% growth on the quarterly basis.

Despite the fact that the trading volumes are still in the low zone, the buyers were able to break through and consolidate above the resistance level of 120.40.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement, and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 120.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 119.20.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

22.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was trading different directed - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.64. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD increased. Earlier the pair decreased amid the Germany and the US negative bond yields increase.

The Bank of England in its monetary policy last meeting minutes revised upwards the GDP forecast for the first half of the year which caused the profit-taking wave on the short positions within the pair GBP/USD which by the end of the day had increased.

The Japan GDP rose up by 0.6% in the first quarter which exceeded the traders’ expectations; however, this factor could not help the Japanese yen which was under pressure amid the carry trade transactions increase. By the end of the day the pair USD/JPY had increased.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The FOMC minutes publication did not bring any surprises - most of the members do not expect the Fed rate increase at the June meeting while in the case of the strong macroeconomic data the monetary point of view can be changed. It is worth noting that the credit market did not react to the report - the Treasury short-term and long-term bond yields have not practically changed in an hour after the data publication which points out to the expectations absence, concerning the monetary policy tightening in the short term.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1150 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.1050, 1.0925.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Bank of England monetary policy meeting minutes have supported the British pound amid the fact that the monetary regulator raised its GDP growth estimate for the first and the second quarters this year. Two MPC members were inclined to tighten the monetary policy, however, they voted in favor of its preservation in its present form. It is worth noting that the bond market has reacted negatively to this release - the long-term and the short term securities differential has increased which points out to the fact that the soft monetary policy will not be finished in the short term.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is at 1.5775.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is close to the strong resistance level of 1.5670. The downward bounce potential target are 1.5550 and 1.5460.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japan GDP positive data for the first quarter were not able to support the national currency. Those days when traders ignored the fundamental data - we dealt with the strong short-term trend.

There was a correction, now we may expect the partial profit taking on the long positions on the Tokyo Stock Exchange which may add some pressure. However, this decline should be used to long as the upward trend is quite strong.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 121.60.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc has stabilized.

The FOMC long-awaited minutes did not bring any surprises and recorded that many committee members believe that the economic situation does not allow raising the rate in June.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9280, the next one is at 0.9160. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9540. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

25.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

After three consecutive days quotations steady growth the US dollar was under slight pressure, but at the end of the week it increased against the majors. The dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.33. During the day the pair EUR/USD increased amid the German 10-year bond yields growth. Traders ignored even the Germany PMI manufacturing sector negative release which has been declining for the second month in a row. However the pair fell at the end of the trades.

The UK strong retail sales data for April contributed to the GBP/USD quotations growth which had increased. Nevertheless the pair decreased by the end of the day.

Correction in the Japanese stock market with the US secondary market housing sales negative report put pressure on the pair USD/JPY, but it had increased by the end of the day.

The US March labor market looked moderately negative. Average earnings increased by only 0.2% while the unemployment rate remained unchanged and only 85 thousand of job places were created in the private sector. The PPI index in April fell by 0.4%. In March the energy prices declined which also had a negative impact on the CPI.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We should pay attention to the IFO institute publication. Last week the ZEW and Markit Economics reports show the negative expectations for the German economy and in this regard we received the data output worse than the forecasted medians that will put pressure on the euro.

The United States published the inflation report that showed the CPI decrease to 0.1% from 0.2%.

The pair rebounded from the level of 1.1150 downwards and broke through the support level of 1.1050.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0925 soon and then to the level of 1.0790.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The IFO institute weak release may put pressure on the pair EUR/GBP which will give some support to the British pound. The US April inflation data is based on the leading indicators and did not disappoint GBP/USD bears.

On the other hand, we have observed the UK short-term and long-term bond yields increase on the debt market which is a negative factor for the national currency.

There was a rebound from the upward trend line of 1.5460 after the two-days consolidation. The price rebound was on the highest volume, but the pair grew to the resistance level of 1.5670. then the pair rebounded downwards and tested the support level of 1.5460.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is at 1.5670.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Bank of Japan announced its monetary policy meeting results, but under the current conditions traders do not expect any surprises. The first GDP release for the first quarter pleased traders with the strong data a little bit. Secondly, the oil quotations growth has a positive impact on the inflation rates in the second quarter. We can expect the same volume incentive program from the monetary regulator.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 121.60. After breaking 121.60 the buyers may go to 122.40.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The frank fell against the dollar amid the head of the Fed, Ms. Yellen’s speech on Friday. She said that the FOMC is likely to consider the monetary tightening which would follow a rates raise. She also noted that the employment has not reached the goal yet.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9280. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9540. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

26.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar finished the last week on a positive note. The new week for the dollar also began with its consolidation. The core inflation indicator (Core CPI) came out 0.1% better than traders had expected which increased the demand for the US dollar. There has been the US trend reversal and during summer we may expect new USDX highs. Against this negative background the pairs EUR/USD and GBP/USD had decreased and consolidated by the end the day.

The Bank of Japan announced its monetary policy meeting results, still the market was not surprised. The stimulating base remained at the same level while the GDP forecast was raised up by 1% for the current year. At the moment the pair USD/JPY reached the level of 120.65, but after the US inflation data output bulls were able to bring the situation under control. As a result, the trading day ended with a slight correction after the quotations growth.

In this context, during this week we may expect the downtrend continuation. The previous day was marked by the calm trading amid the lack of important macroeconomic statistics publication as well as the banking weekend on the occasion of t he Germany, the UK and the US public holidays.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The market took positively the US dollar inflation release. The Core CPI index rose up by 0.1% to 1.8% on the annual basis while the CPI came out as it was expected in the negative area -0.2%. The US Treasury bond yields have increased that point out to the expectations about the Fed monetary policy changes.

After two days consolidation below the resistance level of 1.1150 the downward trend has been continued. Sellers have broken through and consolidated below the level of 1.1050 amid the high volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0925, 1.0790.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The liquidity was very low amid the UK and the US public holidays and in this regard, we had a horizontal trend.

Last week the British pound fell against the dollar by more than 200 points. The price reduction was on the high volume and led to the price output from the upward channel.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is at 1.5670.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.5550 for a steady growth. The way to the marks of 1.5670 and 1.5775 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japanese exporters felt confident enough in the first quarter and according to the April results, the low exchange rate indicates the positive trend continuation. Taking into account the profit taking on the long positions in the US stock market on Friday and the carry trade closing deals there was the AUD/JPY decrease. Given the fact that the US dollar bullish trend is gaining momentum – we should not count on the quotations strong decrease.

Buyers have tested and consolidated under the resistance level of 121.60. The level breakthrough was on the increased volume - bulls are now strong.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair is close to the strong resistance level of 121.60. If the pair breaks it we expect the growth to 122.40.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

27.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

There was a rather quiet trade in the Forex market at the beginning of the week. The France, Germany, Switzerland, the UK and the USA public holidays are to blame. Among the major financial centers trades took place only in Tokyo and Hong Kong, but the main revenue comes from London and New York that rested on Monday.

As a result, there was a horizontal trend within the major currency pairs, but even against this background, the US dollar enjoyed moderate demand which confirms the US dollar bullish trend strength. Traders returned to the market yesterday, and the dollar rose significantly against major currencies.

The United States pleased traders with the moderately positive macroeconomic statistics. The durable goods orders report came out within the forecasted medians amid the weak car sales in April and the durable goods orders index excluding equipment transportation that was expected slightly better than the consensus forecast amid the employment and average earnings growth.

Investors reacted positively to the April US Core CPI growth which increased by 1.6% to 1.8% on the annual basis from the beginning of the year. There were rumors again in the market that the Fed was going to raise interest rates at the next meetings.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The "Greek factor" once again stirs the euro-zone economy. Athens began to declare that they had no money for the June IMF tranche at the end of the last week. The debt market immediately reacted to this Greek bond yields increase relative to the German ones which also carries a risk for the single European currency.

The beginning of the week was calm amid the increased volumes and low volatility. The price reduced downwards through inertia. Then the pair decreased amid the dollar strengthening. There is not support from the sellers’ part. But due to the fact that the trade continues towards the downward channel bears are still strong.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the growth towards 1.1050 further on we expect a fall to 1.0790.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound was under pressure amid the US dollar global upward trend. It is worth noting that the rate of its decline will be less than the euro decrease. It is due to the fact that the EUR/GBP downward trend got some support for the British pound.

The pound broke through and consolidated below the support level of 1.5460. Trading volumes are in the decreased zone and the price is trading around 1.5390.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5460, the next one is at 1.5550.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.5390, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.5300.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

It was noted the bullish sentiment predominance within the pair dollar/yen. All the key financial centers worked yesterday as usual and in this regard there was the upward trend continuation within the US dollar. Expectations about the federal funds rate increase reinforce the dollar bullish sentiment. Everything is quite simple: the Fed, unlike the Bank of Japan is set to tighten monetary policy which deprives the Japanese yen of trumps for the quotations growth.

The last six months there was a quite large-scale flat. The price was traded in the side corridor of 117.50 - 121.60 for a long time which was formed after the sharp price rise. Yesterday the pair showed a strong increase and broke through the resistance level of 122.30.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair is going upwards. As long as the price is trading in the upward channel buyers remain strong. The bulls’ target is the level of 124.30.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Bank of Japan monetary policy report was published, however, the market has already received all of the key benchmarks from the Japanese regulator. The pair dollar/yen came out from the two-month consolidation towards the main trend and the global demand for the US dollar indicates that this trend is not yet complete and will be continued. Investors remain focused on the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan bipolar monetary policy which support the US dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upwards movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can decrease to the resistance level of 123.50. After breaking 123.50 the sellers may go to 122.40 and 121.60.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

29.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was once again in demand but at the end of the day it lost some ground against the euro. The dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 97.44. Besides the UK GDP assessment and the number of the US jobless claims, there was not published any important macroeconomic statistics this day. Investors are still actively increasing long positions, getting rid of its main competitors. However the euro recovered some lost positions. The commodity market is also under pressure – the Brent crude fell below $ 63/barrel and set the four-week minimum.

The jobless claims report did not please traders with the positive data. The four-week average dropped significantly last week which with the Conference Board consumer confidence release allowed us to count on the data output a little bit better than the forecasted medians. Nevertheless, the date came out more then forecasted medians.

The Japanese yen quickly fell to the eight-year lows against the US dollar growth. According to the Bank of Japan April meeting minutes, the time allocated to achieve the two-percent inflation rate can be extended.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Nearly the whole week the euro finishes the trades in the "red zone". The pair slightly corrected yesterday however currently there are no factors that are capable to change the negative trend. The debt market dynamics is now clearly on the bears’ side. The German bond yields are declining relative to the US and the UK counterparts.

The downward trend was developing within the euro amid the increased volume that indicates that sellers are interested to reduce the price in the short term. Nevertheless the pair slightly increased.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1050 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.1170, 1.1040.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

We got the UK GDP assessment for the first quarter. The unemployment rate reduction with the private consumption and industrial production growth in March allows us to count on the data output within the forecasted medians. Besides the quarterly economic forecast, the Bank of England lowered the GDP growth rate for 2015. The index came out at the level of + 0.3% q/q + 2.4% y/y without revision.

Having broken the strong support level of 1.5465, the British pound continued its decline.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5490.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target is 1.5390. If the price falls it will get to 1.5300, 1.5200.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

This week the Japanese yen is the weakest of the main four currencies. The debt market dynamics indicates the Japan and the US bond yields increase which supported demand for the dollar. This week we received the US jobless claims moderately negative data publication.

The US dollar two weeks growth against the Japanese yen faced the resistance at the level of 124.30.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upwards movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the resistance level of 122.40.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc is correcting after this week decline. Earlier the franc declined amid the dollar growth as many traders believe that this year the Fed still will resort to raising interest rates. Investors also monitor the situation in Spain and Greece.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9280. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9280.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

29.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was once again in demand but at the end of the day it lost some ground against the euro. The dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 97.44. Besides the UK GDP assessment and the number of the US jobless claims, there was not published any important macroeconomic statistics this day. Investors are still actively increasing long positions, getting rid of its main competitors. However the euro recovered some lost positions. The commodity market is also under pressure – the Brent crude fell below $ 63/barrel and set the four-week minimum.

The jobless claims report did not please traders with the positive data. The four-week average dropped significantly last week which with the Conference Board consumer confidence release allowed us to count on the data output a little bit better than the forecasted medians. Nevertheless, the date came out more then forecasted medians.

The Japanese yen quickly fell to the eight-year lows against the US dollar growth. According to the Bank of Japan April meeting minutes, the time allocated to achieve the two-percent inflation rate can be extended.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Nearly the whole week the euro finishes the trades in the "red zone". The pair slightly corrected yesterday however currently there are no factors that are capable to change the negative trend. The debt market dynamics is now clearly on the bears’ side. The German bond yields are declining relative to the US and the UK counterparts.

The downward trend was developing within the euro amid the increased volume that indicates that sellers are interested to reduce the price in the short term. Nevertheless the pair slightly increased.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1050 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.1170, 1.1040.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

We got the UK GDP assessment for the first quarter. The unemployment rate reduction with the private consumption and industrial production growth in March allows us to count on the data output within the forecasted medians. Besides the quarterly economic forecast, the Bank of England lowered the GDP growth rate for 2015. The index came out at the level of + 0.3% q/q + 2.4% y/y without revision.

Having broken the strong support level of 1.5465, the British pound continued its decline.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5490.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target is 1.5390. If the price falls it will get to 1.5300, 1.5200.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

This week the Japanese yen is the weakest of the main four currencies. The debt market dynamics indicates the Japan and the US bond yields increase which supported demand for the dollar. This week we received the US jobless claims moderately negative data publication.

The US dollar two weeks growth against the Japanese yen faced the resistance at the level of 124.30.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upwards movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the resistance level of 122.40.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc is correcting after this week decline. Earlier the franc declined amid the dollar growth as many traders believe that this year the Fed still will resort to raising interest rates. Investors also monitor the situation in Spain and Greece.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9280. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9280.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

01.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

After the two-day growth the US dollar got under pressure. The USDX finished the last trading day at the mark of 97.14. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had increased amid the short positions profit taking after the US jobless claims negative release. Now investors do not have a good alternative to the US dollar. We also cannot ignore the "black gold" market dynamics. The oil trading finished in the "green zone" amid the US inventories decline.

The UK GDP second assessment remains unchanged that at the moment put pressure on the pair GBP/USD which fell to the level of 1.5260 after which there was the short positions profit-taking that caused the technical rebound towards 1.5300. The UK National Statistical Office kept the GDP assessment for the first quarter unchanged despite the Bank of England positive forecasts about the May monetary policy meeting results. It should also be noted that the export and the consumer spending indicators were revised in to the negative side.

The Japan weak April retail sales contributed to the pair USD/JPY growth which by the end of the day had increased.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We pay attention to the US first quarter GDP publication. Taking into account this economic growth second assessment and the trade balance, industrial production and employment weak macroeconomic releases for March we expected the index revision downwards and the data output within the forecasted medians. The GDP decreased by 0,7%.

The euro corrective growth is not supported by volumes and it looks quite weak. Buyers have broken through the resistance of 1.0925.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1050. We do not exclude the falls to 1.0790.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK National Statistical Office kept the GDP assessment for the first quarter unchanged despite the Bank of England positive forecasts about the May monetary policy meeting results. It should also be noted that the export and the consumer spending indicators were revised into the negative side.

The downward trend is gradually losing its strength. In recent days we observe the reduced volatility in the market.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5390 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.5200, 1.5100.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan has published a block of important macroeconomic statistics where the April inflation data are standing apart. The unemployment reduction and the average earnings growth in March indicate the CPI increase. The Japanese 10-year bond yields decreased by seven basis points in April which does not allow us to count on the data output significantly better than the forecasted medians.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 123.50 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 122.40 and 121.60.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

After the US ambiguous economic data the US dollar corrected its achievements, but in general it remains positive.

Last week the initial jobless claims totaled 282k against the expected. 270k, but the unfinished home sales transactions totaled 3.4% in April against expected 0.9%.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9280. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9280. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9160.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

02.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was declining amid the GDP second assessment first quarter weak data. The final figure was revised into the negative side to the level of 0.7%. In the light of this the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trades at the mark of 96.94. Besides the US weak data, the Germany positive statistics contributed to the quotations growth. Retail sales rose up by 1.7% in April that encouraged traders to long. Still ISM supported the dollar and the pair EUR/USD decreased by the end of the day.

The pair GBP/USD was under pressure amid the UK and the US negative bond yields increase, but after the US GDP weak data it was able to recover partially some lost ground. Nevertheless, the trades ended in the negative region- quotations have declined.

The Japan inflation and industrial production positive statistics did not bring the desired dividends to the Japanese yen. The powerful bullish trend within the pair USD/JPY pair is continued - according to the trades results, quotations have increased.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro enjoyed a moderate demand amid the Germany inflation positive report. The moderate wage and the energy prices growth with the unemployment reduction point out to the inflationary pressure growth in the Old World leading economies. The PMI manufacturing revised index by the Markit Eurozone fell to the level of 52.2 in May against 52.3 the previous month. The analysts’ forecast was 52.3. The ISM manufacturing index showed a growth to the level of 52.8. The dollar strengthened amid this data.

The euro was correcting against the US dollar. The price growth is on the higher volumes. However the pair decreased to the support level of 1.0925.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.0790 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0670.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK PMI manufacturing index rose up to 52 in May compared with 51.9 the previous month and the forecast of 52.5.

The Bank of England in its monetary policy latest minutes pointed out that we should expect the UK GDP growth in the second quarter and therefore, we may count on the positive data output as industrial production is the cyclical economic indicator.

The two-week pound decline against the US dollar stopped at the support level of 1.5200.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.4975. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.5200 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 102.25, further then towards 102.70.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Last Friday we saw sales in the US and the Japanese stock market which indicates the lack of demand for the risky assets. The debt market also points to the upward trend completion: the US and Japan negative bond yields shows a decline. There was the positive manufacturing sector business activity report published from the ISM. This points out to the bullish sentiment prevalence.

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level of 125.50., the next on is the level of 127.00




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

03.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The new trading week the US dollar began with a growth. However it fell yesterday - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 97.51. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had increased. Earlier it showed a decrease amid the US ISM manufacturing sector positive report.

During the day the pair GBP/USD was under pressure after the UK manufacturing sector PMI weak data. Nevertheless, the trading day ended with the quotations increase. The Bank of England in its quarterly economic forecast, published in early May, pointed out to the real estate sector decline. However, according to the April data - the mortgage loans volume rose up to the mark of 42.1K that smoothes the negative picture.

The US production sector ISM index positive data point out to the US economy recovery after recession in the first quarter which accelerated the pair USD/JPY growth. However the pair by the end of the day had decreased.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The Eurozone leading economies have already reported about the CPI growth by the end of May which may support the euro demand. On the other hand, we cannot ignore the debt market dynamics. The Greece and the Germany bond yields increase indicates the investors’ negative expectations about the "Greek question" decisions ‘perspectives.

This month Athens has to pay 1.6 billion euros to the IMF and the first payment is scheduled for the 5th of June.

The trading was around the level of 1.0925. Yesterday the euro sharply grew and broke through the resistance levels of 1.1050 and 1.1150

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.1260 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1460 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK manufacturing sector business climate indicator pointed out that the Bank of England was quite optimistic in their GDP estimates for the second quarter of this year. The construction sector PMI index was published the other day.

The Bank of England in its quarterly economic forecast, published in early May, pointed out to the real estate sector decline. However, according to the April data - the mortgage loans volume rose up to the mark of 42.1K that smoothes the negative picture.

The short-term consolidation above the support level of 1.5200 was followed by attempts of its breakthrough. On the volume sellers consolidated at the mark of 1.5200 but they did not break it downwards. The pair increased at the end of the trades and broke through the resistance level of 1.5300.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5460 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.5300, 1.5200.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US ISM manufacturing sector business climate report points out to the industrial growth. There was noted the orders growth in the 11 sectors and the employment growth in 14 sectors, including the oil sector which in recent months has experienced hard times because of the energy low prices.

The resistance level of 124.30 did not stop the upward trend. The continuous consolidation below the level was followed by breakthrough. However the consolidation above the broken level was short-term and the pair fell below it.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 123.50 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 122.40, further then towards 121.60.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

04.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar came under a sales wave – the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 95.90. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had increased after the euro area inflation positive data as well as the positive expectations about "the Greek question" resolution.

It was expected that the ADP employment report as well as the services sector ISM index will be able to please the traders with the positive data. However the services sector ISM index came out worse then forecasted median and the ADP employment report – better then it was expected. The ISM manufacturing sector business climate index points out to the US economy growth which will contribute to the dollar increase.

By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had increased amid short positions profit taking after the UK PMI construction sector positive releases.

The pair USD/JPY set a fresh 12-year high near the mark of 125.05 and after that traders started to close long positions. However after a slight decrease as a result, the trading day ended with the quotations growth.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro has shown strong growth amid the positive expectations about "the Greek question" resolution.

The euro is supported by the number of factors. The German and the US government bond yields reduction. The Greece and Germany negative bond yields are also declining amid the positive expectations about the Greece agreement with its creditors. The US April trade balance report pleased investors with strong data.

The resistance level of 1.1150 breakthrough was followed by the euro active growth against the US dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1450.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

We pay attention to the Markit Economics services sector PMI index release. The current indicator is higher than the annual average which indicates this economic sector growth. However the data came out worse then forecasted medians.

The service sector ISM index negative data may contribute to the US Treasury bond yields decrease amid the US Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening expectations.

The pound two-week decline was followed by the correction formation. The corrective price increase was on the high volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.5300 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.5200, further then towards 1.5100.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese yen received fewer dividends of all majors. Investors are increasing their long positions on dips based on the uptrend continuation. The manufacturing sector ISM index points out to the positive dynamics continuation in a series of the US macro-economic reports.

The Japan and the US negative bond yields increase may put pressure on the Japanese yen.

Having consolidated for a short time below the support level of 124.30, the price returned above the level, breaking through it through down - top.

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 125.50 for a steady growth.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

05.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD had increased amid the ECB inflation forecast revision for 2015. However it slightly fell by the end of the day.

On the contrary, the pair GBP/USD had decreased by the end of the day after the service sector PMI index weak data release when the pair fell to the lowest level this year that confirms the UK low economic growth. The pair fell after a strong growth. There was published the GDP growth forecast in the second quarter to the level of 0.7% according to the Bank of England last meeting minutes. The data about the managers’ mood in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors indicate that this indicator will be below the forecast level. It should also be noted that the Brent crude lost more than 2% amid the negative expectations for the OPEC summit.

The pair USD/JPY had increased amid the risky assets demand. The carry trade transactions again put pressure on the Japanese yen. The yen devaluation has a positive impact on Japanese exporters - in April industrial production increased by 1% while in May the manufacturing PMI rose above 50%.

The US initial jobless claims showed positive release. The May index fell to 8000 to 276 000. The forecast growth was 279,000.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The EUR/USD had renewed the maximums and formed a consolidation. The ECB raised this year inflation forecast by 0.3% which caused the Germany and the US negative bond yields reduction. In its turn, this factor will provide some support to the euro. However, as the day was not rich with important macroeconomic statistics the market showed some stabilization in anticipation of the Friday US labor market report.

The euro has been actively strengthening against the US dollar for three days amid the increased volumes. Having broken through the strong resistance level of 1.1260, buyers strengthened their positions. Nevertheless the pair fell to this level at the end of the trades.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1150 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.1050 and 1.0925.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Bank of England announced the monetary policy meeting results. Traders did not expect any changes. The monetary regulator has repeatedly stated that it was ready to ease the monetary policy in case of the deflation risk, but now the situation is generally stable. During the first summer days the UK 10-year government bond yields showed an increase that point out to the UK inflation expectations growth.

The pound showed a strong growth but now we observe a slight decrease.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5300.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair USD/JPY is consolidating and closed the trades with a slight decrease. The Bank of Japan governor gave his speech which supported the Japanese yen. Mr. Kuroda noted the inflation expectations growth amid the wages and energy prices increase. The Japan 10-year bond yields have increased by 12 basis points for the last month.

The US dollar strong growth against the Japanese yen went into a prolonged consolidation.

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 123.50 and 122.40.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc has grown while the dollar has reached its minimum level for the week against the euro and suffered losses against several other major currencies after the ECB has kept its monetary policy unchanged while the German Bunds bond yields continued to grow. The dollar had strengthened only at the end of the trades.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9280, the next one is at 0.9160. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9540.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

08.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

At the end of the last week the US dollar was able to recoup some lost positions - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.45. By the end of the day the pair EUR / USD had decreased amid the longs profit taking \ after the US jobless claims positive report. After the U report the Germany and the US negative bond yields showed a reversal which also points to the bearish sentiment prevalence for the euro. The Non-Farm showed 228K as a result the dollar strengthened.

On the contrary, the pair GBP / USD had increased amid the pair EUR/GBP quotations increase which contributed to demand for the British pound.

The pair USD / JPY had strengthened. The US stock market sales restrained bulls from the large number of long positions opening. The pair dynamics was affected by the Non-Farm report.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US May labor market report was last week main even that shall set this week movement direction. The non-farm payrolls came out better than the forecasted medians. The leading indicators point out to the Non-Farm at 228K.

The euro strong growth against the US dollar was stopped at the resistance level of 1.1375. The short-term level testing was followed by the active price rebound downwards on the increased volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is declining.

Trading recommendations

We expect the return below the cloud, the first target might be the level of 1.0925. Otherwise the growth will be continued to 1.1260.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The monetary policy committee kept the asset purchases program in the amount of 375 billion pounds. The fall in consumer prices by 0.1% on an annualized ratio revived fears among investors about the Europe's third largest economy deflation. In these circumstances, we do not count on the monetary policy change and the interest rates raising before 2016.

The whole week the British pound was correcting against the US dollar towards the upward channel. The resistance level of 1.5350 was broken through.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement, the Tenkan-sen is directed downwards.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the falling will be continued. The price will fall towards 1.5100 soon.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US Treasury short-term and long-term securities declined after the jobless claims positive release which with the US stock market reduction points out to the investors' expectations that the Fed may raise the interest rates this year. After the Non-farms positive report the pair has grown.

The Japanese yen upward trend is consolidating towards the levels’ side channels of 123.65 - 124.85. Despite the continuous consolidation, the bullish trend is still in force.

The price is finding the first support at 125.50, the next one is at 124.30. The price is finding the resistance at 127.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show are growing. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The indicator is decreasing.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The euro is in no hurry to leave the taken highs, preferring to trade above the ninth figure. Mixed US statistics, the European leaders’ willingness to work intensively with Greece and a modest increase in activity within the ECB QE keep the euro afloat, preventing the "bears" completely clean up the initiative in their hands.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9280. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show are changing their course to upwards.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The indicator is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the growth will be continued and the price will reach 0.9540 soon.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

09.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

Last Friday main event was the May US labor market report. All traders were looking forward to this release as it had to give an answer whether the US economy stood on the growth path after the first quarter recession or not and whether the Fed is going to raise the federal rates this year. It is worth noting that the data met the traders’ expectations who bet on the US dollar growth. The Non-Farm index came out at the level of 280 thousand, the average earnings increased by 0.3%. The US Treasury two-bond yields immediately increased to the level of 0.752%, having set a new maximum for the last four years. Against this background, the pairs EUR/USD and GBP/USD had decreased. However these pairs fell by the end of the day.

The Japan Central Bank foreign exchange reserves growth with the high level of Japanese securities purchases by foreign investors points out to the capital income into the country. Nevertheless the pair USD/JPY has decreased.

Germany published the industrial production report. It was expected that it might please the traders with the positive data amid the industrial orders growth. As a result the release showed a growth 0.9%m/m and 1.4% y/y.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro increased at the trades on Monday. Germany published the industrial production report. This index increased in April by 0.9% on the month basis after the revised decline by 0.4% in March. The increase was larger in April than it was forecasted by 0.5% and the highest increase in 2015.

We received the May US labor market report and it's time to sum up the outcomes. The private sector employment reached the level of 280 thousand that confirms the Fed forecast for the US economic recovery in the second quarter.

The price reduction from the resistance level of 1.1260 was followed by the support level of 1.1150 short-term breakthrough. However, buyers were able to buy out the price and return it above the mark of 1.1150. The resistance level of 1.1260 was tested.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the resistance level of 1.1260, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.1150.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The US labor market positive report for May points out both to the economic growth as a whole and to the inflation increase in particular. Inflation expectations growth will contribute to the fact that investors will lay in their forecasts the monetary policy tightening by the Fed part which will support demand for the US dollar.

The pound downward trend has stopped at the round support level of 1.5200 for the second time. We noted a consolidation below the resistance level of 1.5300. Then the pair increased and broke through the resistance level of 1.5300 upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement, the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5300 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.5200.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan has published the April payment balance report. The Japan Central Bank foreign exchange reserves growth with the high level of Japanese securities purchases by foreign investors points out to the capital income into the country which made it possible to rely on the positive data output. The data came out at the level of -146.4B. the forecast median was +153B.

The bullish trend is still quite strong and investors will build up long positions on dips. Buyers were able to break through and consolidate above the maximum of 124.30. The pair fixated above and tested the level of 125.50. the pair rebound downwards from this level.

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross’. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 124.30 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound target is the resistance level of 125.50.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.