In our traditional comprehensive weekly review we will discuss the main fundamental and technical factors affecting the Canadian dollar exchange rate, as well as give trading recommendations.
The previous week, from 18 to 22 June, USDCAD was bullish. After the true breakout of the resistance level at 1.30000, the market quotes are going up powerfully:

In the "trade war" between the major economies of the world were involved and Canada. As we believe, the us dollar is stronger in this confrontation than the canadian dollar. We also note that the lines of the Alligator are intertwined on the H1 chart, which means that you need to be ready for a sudden turn.
Technical analysis
The long-term trend of USDCAD is bullish for 11 years, starting from November 2007. Although 2016 and 2017 (medium-term trend) were bearish. The short-term trend, as we have already noted – also bullish – so consider this forecast as the most likely. The coincidence of long-term and short-term trends is a strong trading signal.
Option â„– 1 - bullish trend
On the H4 chart, the open fall of the Alligator is seen, i.e. the lower time frame (H1) is supported by the higher (H4). Most of the fractal is above the red line:

Long position – when a valid breakout of the level of 1.33500.
Option â„– 2 - bearish trend
We do not forget that the medium-term trend is still bearish, the last two years USDCAD is going down. So, you need to be ready for a sharp change of trend. On the D1 chart, the price is not supported by volumes – we will not ignore this.

This scenario is considered when fixing the price below 1.32500.
Option â„– 3 - side price movement
We do not exclude this option, if the trade signals confirming each other for buying (selling) will not be – it is more reasonable to remain outside the market.
Fundamental analysis
Significant events of the weekly economic calendar:
Monday, June 25
• New Home Sales (USA)
Tuesday, June 26
• FOMC Members Bostic and Kaplan speech
Wednesday, June 27
• Goods Trade Balance (USA)
• Durable Goods Orders (USA)
• Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation (USA)
• BoC Governor Poloz Speech
Thursday, June 28
• Initial Jobless Claims (USA)
• Gross Domestic Product Annualized (USA)
• Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (USA)
• FOMC Member Bostic speech
Friday, June 29
• Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (USA)
• Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USA)
Before the news-be prepared for powerful price fluctuations. Follow our daily analytical reviews.
Sincerely yours, Sergey Ryazantsev – Financial analyst of AMEGA brokerage company